If National wins ...

[elZorro]

Good work, although not sure of the wisdom of posting that here. Could cause major depression with eZ who seems to be missing in action. Probably out washing Jacinda's signs, or maybe painting over National's.

Close, we're putting up party vote stickers for early voting. Went to a "meet the candidates" meeting tonight, last one they're having. The local Nat MP was there, renewing my efforts to see him gone.

I'm not sure where Newshub got these latest voting intentions from, maybe they didn't ring any townies, just farmers on landlines.

[Joshuatree]

Awaiting the next colmar brunton poll. The fall guy joyce is not going to fool enough kiwis with his dirty mudslinging; got to have faith in whats good ,decent and honest shining through.

[Jonboyz]

If she can do a high speed train from Tauranga to Auckland for $20m then a new TV channel for that kind of money should be achievable.

Until she discovers it isn't and up go the taxes to pay for it all.

Numbers are'nt her strong point.

[elZorro]

Awaiting the next colmar brunton poll. The fall guy joyce is not going to fool enough kiwis with his dirty mudslinging; got to have faith in whats good ,decent and honest shining through.

NewsHub is from TV3, owned by Mediaworks, and Mediaworks was formed out of a combination of Radioworks and TV3 in 2004. That's where Joyce got his cash from.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MediaWorks_New_Zealand

He probably helped them out in 2011 with a funding guarantee.

So these Mediaworks people might not be playing it straight. Note that all the votes in this poll add to 100%, they polled some people and discarded all the 'don't knows', to get their figures. That's not realistic, and they should have told us how many were discarded.

Note the timing of this crap poll, it's at the start of early voting and just after Joyce made up some rubbish about Labour's budget figures. This is the sort of thing that Labour is up against, pretty much a corruption of power.

[Joshuatree]

Yep PT and all take note;ive been consistent about this. Prob timed to try and influence all the early voters ; early voting up 300% on last year. Desperate underhand measures .Treating kiwis with complete disrespect as gormless easy pushovers,
NOT!

[Bjauck]

I quoted from this a week or so ago - you can't trust polls...

Most polls got Brexit, Trump and underestimated the uk election Labour support. If Jacinda has mobilised the youth vote here...maybe normal polling metrics are underestimating Labour here.

[Bjauck]

NewsHub is from TV3, owned by Mediaworks, and Mediaworks was formed out of a combination of Radioworks and TV3 in 2004. That's where Joyce got his cash from.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MediaWorks_New_Zealand

He probably helped them out in 2011 with a funding guarantee.

So these Mediaworks people might not be playing it straight. Note that all the votes in this poll add to 100%, they polled some people and discarded all the 'don't knows', to get their figures. That's not realistic, and they should have told us how many were discarded.

Note the timing of this crap poll, it's at the start of early voting and just after Joyce made up some rubbish about Labour's budget figures. This is the sort of thing that Labour is up against, pretty much a corruption of power.

It's a news hub/Reid poll. How independent are Reid? Wouldn't their reputation be at stake if they did not employ robust polling methods?

[Rep]

Integrity?

Integrity?

Integrity?

The're politicians, JT,

POLITICIANS !!!

Correction: PaperTiger... it should be they're politicians.

JoshuaTree: Jacinda has honed the positivity of her messaging around change and making an impact - it is too late to be changing that messaging or unmuzzling Kelvin Davis for an attack (and if Trevor Mallard apparently has his sights set on the role of speaker of the house in the next term then he isn't going to do it) - that might backfire so it is pretty much course laid in over the next 2 weeks.

There is enough smoke and noise around the tax working group that has seen that firming of support pause for the moment. Voters usually think they are over taxed and others don't pay enough tax but generally don't vote in additional taxes upon themselves -
some may wish to but think others should pay more would be my observation - any uncertainty about their own bank balance makes voters uneasy.

Having said that, the only poll that counts is the one on election night and I wouldn't be predicting an outcome other than:

TOP isn't likely to get 5% neither will the Conservatives or ACT but David Seymour will probably get Epsom and that will be it.

The Greens should be deeply worried - if they don't get 5% then there are going to be no MPs and no voice in Parliament. The largely post MT campaign has seen James Shaw disappear off hoardings and from what I can see a environmental policy campaign. If they don't get in there will be a lot of soul searching about this campaign - there is some genuine talent in their party list ranks that Labour should be looking to headhunt for 2020.

Potentially we could see the largest wasted vote ever under MMP... you are all smart folk but there are some consequences to those wasted party votes...

Because if the country isn't quite ready for a change now then I really can't see a five term administration unless the opposition collapses between now and then - I genuinely hope for the sake of good government that isn't the case.

[fungus pudding]

NewsHub is from TV3, owned by Mediaworks, and Mediaworks was formed out of a combination of Radioworks and TV3 in 2004. That's where Joyce got his cash from.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MediaWorks_New_Zealand

He probably helped them out in 2011 with a funding guarantee.

So these Mediaworks people might not be playing it straight. Note that all the votes in this poll add to 100%, they polled some people and discarded all the 'don't knows', to get their figures. That's not realistic, and they should have told us how many were discarded.

Note the timing of this crap poll, it's at the start of early voting and just after Joyce made up some rubbish about Labour's budget figures. This is the sort of thing that Labour is up against, pretty much a corruption of power.

translation. eZ doesn't like this result from the dirty low-down scheming corrupt pigs who Joyce might have helped out once.

[blackcap]

NewsHub is from TV3, owned by Mediaworks, and Mediaworks was formed out of a combination of Radioworks and TV3 in 2004. That's where Joyce got his cash from.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MediaWorks_New_Zealand

He probably helped them out in 2011 with a funding guarantee.

So these Mediaworks people might not be playing it straight. Note that all the votes in this poll add to 100%, they polled some people and discarded all the 'don't knows', to get their figures. That's not realistic, and they should have told us how many were discarded.

Note the timing of this crap poll, it's at the start of early voting and just after Joyce made up some rubbish about Labour's budget figures. This is the sort of thing that Labour is up against, pretty much a corruption of power.

What a load of rubbish El Zorro, you are spinning again. The Colmar Brunton (yes the one that had Labour in the lead) also adds up to 100% and so they must have discarded some don't so's to get their figures? All polls add up to 100. Its what they do.