If National wins ...

[upside_umop]

I don't think National will lead the next government. As much of a victory it was for National in the last election, it was too close.

Ez, I don't know why you're so pro-left, when the Greens will shut down your beloved investments being GEL/OGC if they half the chance.

[elZorro]

I don't think National will lead the next government. As much of a victory it was for National in the last election, it was too close.

Ez, I don't know why you're so pro-left, when the Greens will shut down your beloved investments being GEL/OGC if they half the chance.

I've been outed! - how did you know all that UU? Anyway I'm not so pro-left, just pro-fair go. It's the same as with shares, it's a lot easier if there are plenty along for the ride.

Would the Greens shut down GEL operations? GEL's major interests will be JVs with Newmont in the medium term, I think they're (Newmont)doing the long-term work to ensure they have a foothold here. OGC have similarly provided good employment and minimal environmental impact. In their case, the land they use isn't much good for anything else.

GEL's placer mining is also commonly on already impacted schist gravels with a recent thin covering of topsoil. Suited for sheep/beef farming perhaps, but only returning $200 per hectare p.a. unirrigated. Very hard for the Greens to make a case against a substantial cashflow injection into such areas, and of course the land is always returned to its former use at the end of operations, probably better than it was before.

I'm all for a labour-greens alignment for the next election, as long as the savvy greens concentrate their efforts on helping our researchers (more likely the private sector) find more sustainable and cheap energy sources, hopefully with no carbon impact.

Surely even the Greens know that our recent civilisation is founded on energy use, and there's plenty of it out there, we're just using the easiest parts first at the moment.

Here's the result of National's rich-listers attitude: the tax take is down, so the surplus they predicted for 2014 and used as a massive plank in their election campaign has disappeared.

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU120...eficit-gap.htm

No talk of increasing taxes back to where they were of course, but more cost cutting in the public sector, which will have the added benefit to big business of holding down wage increases and ensuring there's a well-trained employee pool to choose from. Just make sure you're not on the receiving end of it.

[Major von Tempsky]

Well, how goes the unfortunate experiment? ;-)

And the coming Australian ALP disaster a la Queensland is bound to have some spillover into NZ politics....

[elZorro]

Well, how goes the unfortunate experiment? ;-)

And the coming Australian ALP disaster a la Queensland is bound to have some spillover into NZ politics....

Not sure about the ALP, MVT. Lots of articles in the papers about Shearer though, not too many compliments. Most of them along the same lines: he'll need to get going within 6 months, needs more polished speech delivery, needs a really good "Orewa speech" cause, but without the negative racial side that Brash invoked.

[slimwin]

He needs to be replaced. Wouldn't want to put your hand up in the labour party though, it makes an easier target for the knives.

[elZorro]

He needs to be replaced. Wouldn't want to put your hand up in the labour party though, it makes an easier target for the knives.

Hi Slimwin, I still think there was a great deal of good work done in the three Labour terms, they really did set the country up for future success, and most of them worked in alignment to do that. But despite the impassioned comments from bloggers like us (both sides), and the good intentions of politicians, I suspect the general public are a slow-moving beast. For example, the business sector have (by and large) refused to heed a call to get into high-tech exports, we resisted smoking bans in public buildings, etc. Both are in our best interests.

That's why we certainly need a large-than-life leader of political parties, it's their marketing front. Anyone in business knows you have to market your products/services about 100x harder than you'd think, to get any quick progress. This is all learnt the hard way, over several years. David Shearer has just started out, but I think a crash course on public speaking might be a good idea.

[fungus pudding]

Not sure about the ALP, MVT. Lots of articles in the papers about Shearer though, not too many compliments. Most of them along the same lines: he'll need to get going within 6 months, needs more polished speech delivery, needs a really good "Orewa speech" cause, but without the negative racial side that Brash invoked.

Brash called for an end to race-based policies. That's not negative - it's sensible. and therefore quite positive. Unfortunately it's all been swept under the carpet for another year or two.

[Major von Tempsky]

Strange tactical approach by Labour and Green to the Banks/Dotcom donation....

One would have thought that it was better to be up against an ACT/National coalition than a straight National majority. There's always a chance that ACT and National will lose their tempers with each other over some policy and the government will fall.

However Shearer publicly acknowledged in the last couple of days that if there were an Epsom bye-election then National would win it.

Hence an approach of maximum embarassing publicity rather an actually trying to force Banks out would be the way to go.

Another example of the Shearer and Labour leadership failing to think it through?

[POSSUM THE CAT]

MVT under the electoral act the percentage of party votes also effects the list seats as most of the party vote in Epson originally went to National. If National wins Epson do they loose a list MP as the percentage of the party vote overall only entitles them to so many seats Will the party vote increase enough to allow an extra MP I doubt it. Or is my interpretation of the law wrong

[Major von Tempsky]

No, I think you must be right.
But if Banks was forced out that would be the end of ACT and even a goat with National Party Epsom Candidate painted on its side would get a huge majority (and Nat had a good candidate who only reluctantly stood down) particularly if ACT didn't stand a candidate and told its people to vote National so that I suspect National would keep all its party seats and would end up with a majority.
We probably need a political scientist to advise us on this.