If National wins ...

[elZorro]

Yes, all very good points you two - PTC, the chippie is in Mangere according to the Herald. Sounds like a good recipe Slimwin.

I'm just being pedantic here, but if you were holding down 2-3 low-paid jobs (I did at one stage) and didn't want to spend the little spare time you had awake, cooking - then takeaway food has some extra appeal. You could even figure out the labour cost of cooking the food, doing the dishes, and the power it used. When it's my cooking night, also Friday, we usually have takeaways, and in my case I admit it's only because I'm lazy.

A 25% extra shift in the spend on takeaways in 4 years is significant I think.

Pita Sharples quitting the Maori Party leadership - on the news tonight the comment was that the Maori Party is in disarray and that another coalition partner for National might disappear, or side with Labour. National don't have many left. Maybe Winston.

[slimwin]

So the Maori party may make up a coalition of 5 to lead the country? What an absolute disaster that would be.

[iceman]

Very interesting to follow media comments on this by-election.
The Maori Party got almost exactly the same % as last election in this seat. Media screams they are finished and the Co-Leader resigns.
Labour lost 1/3 of their previous majority and they claim a win and praise their lacklustre Leader.
The votes lost by Labour bleed to the Mana Party which stands for nothing and will never achieve anything. It is a party of protests, seperation and racism. What a sad state of affairs for Maori politics and Maori in general.

The only way these small parties will achieve anything for the constituents is to accept representative (i.e. small) roles working with the larger governing party, whether National or Labour. But when they do, they always get hammered by the electorate because they don´throw manure from the sidelines like Hone always does.

[craic]

So the Maori party may make up a coalition of 5 to lead the country? What an absolute disaster that would be.

That is exactly my great fear. Not just the tail wagging the dog but maybe four or five tails wagging the same dog. Imagine the hodge-podge of rubbish legislation that would come out of the concessions the"main" party would have to agree with to rule.
An alternative would be a leader with the balls to say no to one or two of the minors and force a further election or let a minority party form a government that was not viable.

[iceman]

That is exactly my great fear. Not just the tail wagging the dog but maybe four or five tails wagging the same dog. Imagine the hodge-podge of rubbish legislation that would come out of the concessions the"main" party would have to agree with to rule.
An alternative would be a leader with the balls to say no to one or two of the minors and force a further election or let a minority party form a government that was not viable.

I think this mess will scare people off come the elections and they will run back to safe havens. Should Labour have the guts and conviction to stand a strong candidate against Hone, he and his so called party will be history. The Maori Party could well go the same way, undeservedly in my view.

National will probably run a good candidate in Epsom and sign the death certificate for ACT. They can't really do anything else.
The big question is whether Dunne will be back in. If not, then National will take his seat

So maybe, just maybe we may have only National, Labour, Greens, Winston First and the Conservatives (+possibly Dunne) in the next parliament. That would be interesting and yet again leave Winston in the driving seat.

[fungus pudding]

I think this mess will scare people off come the elections and they will run back to safe havens. Should Labour have the guts and conviction to stand a strong candidate against Hone, he and his so called party will be history. The Maori Party could well go the same way, undeservedly in my view.

National will probably run a good candidate in Epsom and sign the death certificate for ACT. They can't really do anything else.
The big question is whether Dunne will be back in. If not, then National will take his seat

So maybe, just maybe we may have only National, Labour, Greens, Winston First and the Conservatives (+possibly Dunne) in the next parliament. That would be interesting and yet again leave Winston in the driving seat.

National will not kill off Act.

[CJ]

National will not kill off Act.

I tend to agree only because they need a party to the right of them.

The risk is Act will kill off Act. If they dont regroup before the next election, then it wont be a matte of National killing Act but does it have to proactively save Act - that would not be a good look.

With National moving more to the centre, I think Act has (in theory) a lot of natural support but that they didn't like Brash and/or Banks.

[fungus pudding]

I tend to agree only because they need a party to the right of them.

The risk is Act will kill off Act. If they dont regroup before the next election, then it wont be a matte of National killing Act but does it have to proactively save Act - that would not be a good look.

With National moving more to the centre, I think Act has (in theory) a lot of natural support but that they didn't like Brash and/or Banks.

That's right. They should talk Bascawen into standing again, along with a few others. Perhaps even bring Rodney Hide back. If they could win an electorate seat plus around 3% of the party vote, National would be home and hosed.

[iceman]

That's right. They should talk Bascawen into standing again, along with a few others. Perhaps even bring Rodney Hide back. If they could win an electorate seat plus around 3% of the party vote, National would be home and hosed.

I think the voters in Epsom are dispondent with ACT after this term. They made a big mistake by turfing out Hide who was a hard working electorate MP and a likable rougue. They replaced him with a political failure and a has been in Dr Brash. But I realise Epsom voters will vote tactically to ensure we get a right of center Government.
Key needs to tread carefully and not upset Epsom. Maybe he will transfer Maggie Barry there and give Colin Graig a clear run on the North Shore to bring in 3-4 MPs with him ! Problem possibly solved and no need for Winston First in the mix !?

[slimwin]

Colin Craig. Anybody but please. We had a time when the church held power over running the land. It was called the dark ages.