If National wins ...

[Cuzzie]

One gets the feeling ACT will always shoot themselves in the foot. Don Brash did it back in 2011 with Rodney Hide and now the ACT Board has done it with John Boscawen. Two good men pushed off to the side. John's downfall I believe is that he is just too much of a Gentleman. Never mind, he has worked hard all his life and now at least he can enjoy his riches. That would be rewards for working hard EZ & berg. something Labour hates.
EZ, I will concede that the election race just got a little tighter without Boscawen there for ACT. It's a good day for you, enjoy while you can.

[elZorro]

One gets the feeling ACT will always shoot themselves in the foot. Don Brash did it back in 2011 with Rodney Hide and now the ACT Board has done it with John Boscawen. Two good men pushed off to the side. John's downfall I believe is that he is just too much of a Gentleman. Never mind, he has worked hard all his life and now at least he can enjoy his riches. That would be rewards for working hard EZ & berg. something Labour hates.
EZ, I will concede that the election race just got a little tighter without Boscawen there for ACT. It's a good day for you, enjoy while you can.

(Not one typo in that Cuzzie)?? David Cunliffe has a long way to go in the PM stakes still.

I watched Pure NZ on Prime tonight, all about the freshwater problems. Mostly a sad situation, with some local efforts being made. There is a huge problem ahead of us if we want to get most of our rivers and lakes back into reasonably good condition.

[Cuzzie]

(Not one typo in that Cuzzie)?? David Cunliffe has a long way to go in the PM stakes still.

I watched Pure NZ on Prime tonight, all about the freshwater problems. Mostly a sad situation, with some local efforts being made. There is a huge problem ahead of us if we want to get most of our rivers and lakes back into reasonably good condition.

No spelling mistakes and an honest statement to boot. I thought I was clear enough in my post too EZ, somehow you misunderstood it. I said the election race just got a little tighter, nothing about Cunliffe winning. I meant tighter as in the final result not quite as large as I thought it would of been with Boscawen in the race.
I see the Greens are up to 12% in the latest poll. More power to the Greens less power for Cunliffe if they do win. That equals more center voters heading to the right. That's not good for Cunliffe. BTW, a very smart move by Key last week by keeping Peters in the mix, NZ First are polling higher too.


All that been said, I also think some of the more liberal Green voters will move back towards Labour as and when they see the light. One thing I do know is, "thank God National does not have to partner up with the likes of the Greens"!!!

[fungus pudding]

FP, Cuzzie and Iceman, I feel for you.

No need to feel for me eZ. I think Act's decision is the wrong one and lessens their chances dramatically, therefore leaving National in a weakened position. National with Winston first will be a backward step. However, I have plenty of options to pursue if the negative Labour/Green mob gain the treasury benches.

[iceman]

One gets the feeling ACT will always shoot themselves in the foot. Don Brash did it back in 2011 with Rodney Hide and now the ACT Board has done it with John Boscawen. Two good men pushed off to the side. John's downfall I believe is that he is just too much of a Gentleman. Never mind, he has worked hard all his life and now at least he can enjoy his riches. That would be rewards for working hard EZ & berg. something Labour hates.
EZ, I will concede that the election race just got a little tighter without Boscawen there for ACT. It's a good day for you, enjoy while you can.

John Armstrong believes this was the best and only option for ACT http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/ar...ectid=11195807

Ho often seems to have his finger on the pulse. I think ACT will definitely win Epsom again. My biggest fear for the upcoming election is the possibility of Winston being the kingmaker ! But I just can not imagine him, say with 5-6% of the vote, going into a Labour/Green Government where the Greens would hold much more influential portfolios and be much stronger than Winston First. Except of course he was offered an Ambassador posting in London or USA. But he wouldn't fall for the "baubles of office" would he ? (insert Tui ad)

[elZorro]

No need to feel for me eZ. I think Act's decision is the wrong one and lessens their chances dramatically, therefore leaving National in a weakened position. National with Winston first will be a backward step. However, I have plenty of options to pursue if the negative Labour/Green mob gain the treasury benches.

Yes, think of the new businesses and the pickup in the retail sector as rebuilding govt departments help rejuvenate inner cities. Quite a few people who have been left on National's scrapheap will be hoping for a change of government. Along with parents of young adults who have yet to find their first job.

I'd like to think that Winston Peters will put NZ First and side with the Labour-Green coalition when he gets the chance. He did force the Winebox Enquiry. Maybe the changing of the super qualification age would be an issue, but that is down the track. Winston will get quite a few votes from superannuitants and a section of taxpayers, nothing wrong with that. They want to see how well he'll poke the borax at either National or Labour. Or one of the parties, it probably doesn't matter much.

I built up a spreadsheet of a snapshot of employment data from the Stats website for NZ. Since Sept 2007, about another 200,000 people were added to the working age population. The trend has been for the unemployment level and those outside the workforce to increase, not always in proportion. The number of employed hasn't risen as fast as it needed to, but there have been more jobs created by Sept 2013, the last data point.

There are a lot more people choosing to stay outside the workforce (or who feel they have no choice), than are collecting the unemployment benefit.

Some are ill, or are solo parents. As at early 2013, there were less people on all benefits than in 2009, the total being about 310,000 people. Which means that there has probably been direct or indirect pressure put on some people to be out of the labour force and not claim any govt benefit.


http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/nation...ow-have-income

Of course this data is not showing the total hours worked in NZ each year. Anyone working at least an hour a week, paid or unpaid, is "employed". It's not a FTE position in all cases, but I wonder what the averages have been.

Hours worked in employment is the total number of hours worked in employment per week by all people meeting the definition of employment given in the standard for labour force status, that is, all people aged 15 and over who during the survey reference period:

• worked for one hour or more for pay, profit or payment in kind in a job, business, farm or professional practice
• worked without pay for one hour or more in work which contributed directly to the operation of a farm, business or professional practice operated by a relative
• had a job or business they were temporarily absent from.

The average number of hours per week worked in NZ by employed people is about 34 hrs at present.

Here's a good writeup on how the recession affected jobs.

http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_...recession.aspx

[elZorro]

Just an example of how National sees the world: John Key at the reopening of SCA's robotic plant in Kawerau. An extra 10 people were employed, adding to 200 already there.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11194474

But the full story mentions that a Hamilton plant they owned was partly closed down last year, with the loss of 140 manufacturing jobs and all the downstream effects that entailed. They have more than doubled output in Kawerau for toilet tissue, by using robots and a faster retooling process, at a cost of $60mill.

This is supposedly to combat cheaper Asian imported paper. But most of us don't buy those weird brands, we buy established, recognised products.

SCA is a multinational company from Sweden. They now own (by acquisition) the Sorbent, Tork, Treasures, Purex, Libra, Teena, Handee brands, amongst others. In other words they have a big chunk of the supermarket facings. But they are not NZ owned, and like any big company their main objective is profits. Not in being NZ's biggest employer.

So a question for John Key to answer, is where are 140 Hamilton people going to find new manufacturing jobs? Is the importing of hi-tech equipment into NZ to displace workers inevitable in that business, and what will the govt or NZ get out of that process? Cheaper toilet tissue?

Even if you think that this is good business, and it might be, there will need to be lots of new businesses and enterprises moving through to take up the spare employees, or the taxpayer will be supporting them instead of collecting taxes from them. But National doesn't spend time with SMEs, they especially are not showy enough in election year.

[Harvey Specter]

This is supposedly to combat cheaper Asian imported paper. But most of us don't buy those weird brands, we buy established, recognised products.

Are you sure. What was stopping SCA from importing paper for its large, popular brands (provided they weren't cutting down rain forests, it wouldn't have got bad PR).

Its sad that those 140 jobs were lost but at least the other 200 werent lost as well. Hopefully they are successful and with good access to raw product from teh local forestry industry, they will be able to use those robots (or additional ones) to start exporting finished goods.

[elZorro]

Are you sure. What was stopping SCA from importing paper for its large, popular brands (provided they weren't cutting down rain forests, it wouldn't have got bad PR).

Its sad that those 140 jobs were lost but at least the other 200 werent lost as well. Hopefully they are successful and with good access to raw product from teh local forestry industry, they will be able to use those robots (or additional ones) to start exporting finished goods.

Good points Harvey. But considering the cost of a roll of toilet paper is often under a dollar at retail with GST added, they won't want to be shipping them too far in volume. Neither will the international firm be too keen on moving out of their core business. They've already sold off their packaging assets over the years. That big robot will be firmly stuck in Kawerau making paper towel products for a long time yet. Mainly for domestic production I'd think. Caxton's brands and factory equipment in Auckland was sold to SCA , and the site is now printing newsprint, with another owner. This is a picture of consolidation of SCA's new and old assets beside the huge Tasman plant in Kawerau, which makes sense. But all these big brands that we recognise in the supermarket and elsewhere, they are often held in clusters by big overseas corporates.

Part of the scene in Kawerau. The Tarawera River helpfully flows close to the Tasman pulp factory.

http://blog.greens.org.nz/2011/02/04...-the-tarawera/

In 2009, the EBOP allowed Norkse Skog's plant to continue with a high level of discharge into the Tarawera River for another 25 years. I'm not drawing a direct line to the National Govt, but downstream of Kawerau the river often looks black in colour. It starts off fine at Lake Tarawera. Apparently contaminants have been brought down into acceptable ranges over the years, but a lot of the dye colouring from pulp-making remains in the expelled water, and that is costly to fully extract.

On the TV tonight, most people are not too happy with the idea of National trying to gift seats to the Conservatives or ACT. Over 50% don't agree. Except if you're a National voter, 61% of them agree with the idea. Maybe the rules should be modified so that each party that has broad representation in Parliament before the election, has to field a candidate in every seat.

[elZorro]

Remember Buy NZ made? They are still there, it's just been a fairly quiet operation over the last few years. Have a look at their website, you won't see what all of the mechandising products look like, or the prices. That's partly because you have to be a paid-up member to buy them, but that's not helpful in keeping a high profile.

They usually have branded flags for flying from the top of buildings, but have none in stock, and when they do get them in from NZ manufacturers in small volume, they are quite expensive. So it appears that Buy NZ don't even feel up to making an investment in banners and flags to share with their membership.


http://www.google.co.nz/url?sa=t&rct...60444564,d.dGI


The Australians are, however, becoming more proactive in looking after their own.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/indu...oush-sours-CER