If National wins ...

[slimwin]

And the real winner on election night was craic. I trust you'll invest the win unwisely in a very nice bottle of whisky or something...

[Hoop]

Latest short term chart from I-predict (up to 9.15am today)
One thing about the validity on I-predict is you put your money where your mouth is...
My TA chart from I predict sees a support at 82c (82% chance) for National holding power after tomorrows election...There was Technical trouble earlier but last Tuesday 16th saw a TA buy signal with the 82c resistance broken...the break out rally ran out of steam mid day Wednesday 17th and we are testing the new 82c support again....
With over 80% prediction it seems the Media is making out this election to be a lot closer than perhaps it really is...Listerning and relying on the Media as being honest I would've thought I- predict would have shown these market predictions around the 60-65% level..but no..it seems odds on National will win, unless an unexpected bombshell explodes today.

From I -predict charts concerning indidivual electorates...Electorates on my watchlist are:

May Surprise

Hutt South...Labour held...Traditionally L but electorate boundaries has done Trever Mallard no favours..There's been volatile swing trading here on I predict ..down 4c to 69c 5.65% this morning!!! (69% chance L will win)

Winning Candidate:

MALLARD, Trevor

Majority:

378

Palmeston North...Labour held...L had a scare earlier on but has broken its downtrend and rallying back quickly into the lead against N

Winning Candidate:

LEES-GALLOWAY, Iain

Majority:

1,889

Te Atatu ..Labour held...L is in front but not by much N is 2nd

Winning Candidate:

TWYFORD, Phil

Majority:

2,260

Waimakariri ..National held (2011 Marginal seat) L is trailing but it will be close if National loses steam and breaks 82c support.

Winning Candidate:

DOOCEY, Matt

Majority:

2,133

Cliff hangers

Port Hills ..L held..Ruth Dyson's seat under threat from N.....UPDATE big trading swing to N up 10% this morning to 53% chance of winning

Winning Candidate:

DYSON, Ruth

Majority:

1,865

Te Tai Tokerau* ...Mana held...Hone is sweating on this one, he is eyeball to eyeball with Labour...Too close to call. UPDATE Hone pulling ahead this morning

Winning Candidate:

DAVIS, Kelvin

Majority:

1,119

Goneburgers

Tamaki Makaurau...Maori Party held....Pita Sharples is gone and so has this seat...Odds on for a Labour victory here.

Winning Candidate:

HENARE, Peeni

Majority:

1,235

Te Tai Hauauru...Maori Party held....Labour has 73% chance of winning...

Winning Candidate:

RURAWHE, Adrian

Majority:

1,453

Christchurch Central...National held...Traditionally a strong Labour seat and there's a 73% chance L is taking it back

Winning Candidate:

WAGNER, Nicky

Majority:

2,168

Seats that Matter:

Epsom...Act held..... Act has an 87% chance of winning this time...no problem here
ACT won

Hamilton East and Hamilton West..These two seats used to be "the bell weather seats" If they go red Labour wins...This election prediction its all blue 89% and 92% respectively.
National both seats

Ohariu..United held...United has 83% chance of winning this time ...no problems here either (up 3% this morning).
United Won

Waiariki....Maori Party held...MP has 86% of winning this time...no problems..
Maori Party won

*Te Tai Tokerau...see above Mana's survivial in Parliament rests on this seat
Hone's gone

Hoop, interesting analysis. You have noted some weird things going on with iPredict. I'm fairly certain that about 10 right-wing people, mostly with deep pockets and accounts that never seem to hit the $2500 limits, push the important voting around. Just so people like you can publish the results online. I have noted elsewhere that the actual closeoff (each day for the last two weeks) is still done by Exceltium, 100% owned by Matthew Hooton. He gets to choose when it's closed off, and he has an account on iPredict. Most of the National MPs appear to be keeping their own chances looking very positive, and most Labour candidates have been slack about getting involved. So, what you are looking at, is a fabrication, not a real market, on many of the smaller options anyway. What is perceived to be real, can often turn out to be real, after a deciding event like the election. It's all part of the National Team propaganda.

EZ..We don't have to wait long to see how accurate these media polls are and I-predict too.

If you look at I-predict there is only a handful of electorates that are tight run contests..the volatility exists in only a few electorates so I guess the games being played here can be equally blamed on all parties involved...its all human nature really...

I-predict is a market place....NZX is a market place ...game on

ELZ..A follow-up as promised....Results added to my quoted post above.
The polling has been reasonably accurate this year..

Re I-Predict
Nothing here with I-Predict to support you right wing manipulation claims ELZ ...If anything the results have shown an overall slight left wing bias predictions...Those Seats that show anomallies are Chch Central and Te Tai Tokerau by the left and Port Hills by the right.
And Napier!! Yes Craig that was off most peoples radar

[macduffy]

[QUOTE Had McVicar not been here, Labour would have one less seat and National one more.][/QUOTE]

Really?

Assuming that it didn't affect the party vote - and that's borne out by Labour's poor party vote in the electorate - then Labour's total seats would not have been affected. Just one less electorate seat and one more party seat.

[winner69]

Everyone seems to have missed the peculiar Napier result. A very hard working Labour candidate regained the seat from National, primarily because an equally popular, local, Conservative candidate, split the vote with a lacklustre National candidate. This was evidenced by National getting almost double the party vote that Labour got in Napier. Had McVicar not been here, Labour would have one less seat and National one more. Nash is probably a bit raw for the role of Labour Leader but time will tell. He had two main platforms here, the repair of the Napier/Gisborne rail ink and "No to Amalgamation" of local bodies in the area. Both are now dead issues so what does he have for the local apart from rides on his big red fire engine

Whaleoil reckons that Labour guy would have won even if Conservative guy didn't get many votes

http://www.whaleoil.co.nz/2014/09/st...s/#more-156032

[craic]

I know the candidates and I have spoken to a lot of people here. Nash was in line to beat Walford, all things being equal, but they were not. Boundary changes favoured Walford. As a supporter of McVicar, whom I know personally, just about every person I know who voted McVicar were National supporters. The local party vote was 2 to 1 in favour of National as far as I'm aware. But it doesn't matter now.

[Harvey Specter]

I know the candidates and I have spoken to a lot of people here. Nash was in line to beat Walford, all things being equal, but they were not. Boundary changes favoured Walford. As a supporter of McVicar, whom I know personally, just about every person I know who voted McVicar were National supporters. The local party vote was 2 to 1 in favour of National as far as I'm aware. But it doesn't matter now.

Conservatives are pretty well set up for next time. National could give McVicars the seats - they l ost it anyway so they are not givng up anything anyway. National could also give Rankin Epsom instead of Act.

plus if Winston retires, Conservatives will take a good portion of their vote.

[Harvey Specter]

Great result for centre right. National now have a mandate to do ... um ... mmm ... what were their policies again???? Status quo it is then.

Time for the trickle down to start happening.

[fungus pudding]

Conservatives are pretty well set up for next time. National could give McVicars the seats - they l ost it anyway so they are not givng up anything anyway. National could also give Rankin Epsom instead of Act.

plus if Winston retires, Conservatives will take a good portion of their vote.

Conservatives have fairly difficult policies though.

[Major von Tempsky]

Wot? No comments from EZ? After years of pounding our eardrums with how inevitable it was that Labour would win and he's now conspicuous by his absence. Away licking his wounds in the underbrush and sulking like a cat that has just lost a catfight it was sure it was going to win.
And before you start another long boring 3 year campaign of the same EZ, consider the possibility that John Key and National might win by even more next time...
No Kim Dotcom and Internet Mana and presumably not even Nicky Hager will try that crap on again.

[fungus pudding]

Wot? No comments from EZ? After years of pounding our eardrums with how inevitable it was that Labour would win and he's now conspicuous by his absence. Away licking his wounds in the underbrush and sulking like a cat that has just lost a catfight it was sure it was going to win.
And before you start another long boring 3 year campaign of the same EZ, consider the possibility that John Key and National might win by even more next time...
No Kim Dotcom and Internet Mana and presumably not even Nicky Hager will try that crap on again.

Go easy on eZ. He's on sick leave today.