If National wins ...

[winner69]

with 26% counted its all Winnie

Handy lesd over the Nat guy with 52.6% of vote

[winner69]

with 55% polling booth counted and Winnie leading my 2,232

Now has 53.0% of vote

Hope this is the bginning of Keys downfall

[elZorro]

with 55% polling booth counted and Winnie leading by 2,232

Now has 53.0% of vote

Hope this is the beginning of Keys downfall

Thanks for the update W69, I should crack open another beer!

[winner69]

Thanks for the update W69, I should crack open another beer!

More than 3,000 in front now EZ

Nearly 54% of the votes

Polls right again

And iPredict as usual right on the button from a while ago

[Daytr]

Wow looks like a trouncing. Winnie all the way! Woohoo !

[winner69]

looks like pretty strong turnout , esp for a by-electiom

Winnie now 3,400 in front

The populous have spoken ..... they are pissed off with current leadership

[winner69]

90 0f 98 booths

Winnie know 3,626 in front - just under 54% of votes

[winner69]

somebody posted here if Winnie wins with a huge margin Key will call an early election

Doubt it but hope so

[elZorro]

More than 3,000 in front now EZ

Nearly 54% of the votes

Polls right again

And iPredict as usual right on the button from a while ago

Yes, who would have guessed that? Mind you, the pro-National bets on ipredict did start disappearing below the 50% mark fairly quickly. They were just bluffing it out, even then. I'm going to repost what I wrote earlier, the by-election has closed.

So the day is here at last, when we see that National is likely to be ousted in 2017, rather than go on to hold power for four terms. A win for "Not National" in Northland will really boost the confidence of the other parties, in the belief that the normal "three-terms in, three terms out" cycle will prevail. Based on the data left behind so far, theLabour Coalition has a very proud legacy from their nine years in office, National not so good, from over six years.

Yes, National had the GFC and the Earthquakes to contend with, but where is the detailed policy that has been worked on since, to ensure NZ moves up the OECD rankings, not down? Why is it so hard to balance the govt budget, long after the GFC? Why are our exports mostly commodity-based still? Where would we be if we couldn't borrow heavily from offshore to shore up our overspending ways, on assets that are usually not truly productive?

Any time I see an expensive new car on the road, a house being purchased as a rental, a farm being idly used as a safe deposit and capital gain vehicle, I think of the smart businesses that didn't get started and sustained with that capital. Businesses that employ people, pay taxes along the way, export niche value-added goods offshore. If the government of the day doesn't actively promote those ideas, they have to go.

[winner69]

Nearly all over and Peters will win by more than 4.000