If National wins ...

[Sgt Pepper]

With a post like that MVT its your true colors that are being exposed & just how out of date your views are.
Grant Robertson's sexual persuasion has no relevance & if John Key liked pulling ponytails in the bedroom with a consenting adult than neither would that. The difference is Key continued his behavior with someone who not only didn't consent but objected to it.

Daytr

Absolutely right. The tenor of responses from MVT and others reflects that, underneath the insults and bravado they are getting seriously concerned at the prospect of National being returned in 2017. Perhaps its timely to reflect where we are in the political cycle.
I would like to make the following observations and predictions and would be interested in others opinions.
I believe John Keys enthusiasm for the job and determination to win the next election is being tested at a personal level. " Ponygate" is survivable but this has undermined confidence.

The Flag Referendum
There is no public appetite evident to change the flag and he runs a personal risk in being associated to such an extent with what will be a failure, and a rather expensive one at $26 million.
The Surplus
The elusive surplus is proving problematic as they attached so much of their credibility to its attainment. This may not be such a problem for the electorate at large, but the 2014 promise, pushed by John Key against Bill English advice of a second tranche of income tax cuts must be deeply regretted now and have Bill English privately seething.
National MPs Aspirations
On the basis of 3 terms in 3 terms out, younger, ambitious National MPs are contemplating their political careers. this can only serve to heighten tensions internally. This could well boil over in late 2016.
John Keys Post PM Career
He is without a doubt contemplating his post political aspirations, Ponygate will only serve to seek out a pathway. Accordingly I make the following scenario as a distinct possibility. John Key will announce his resignation to depart the leadership in late 2016. He will seek, and be appointed to the position of High Commisioner to London in early 2017 to replace Lockwood Smith

[Daytr]

Sgt Pepper I wouldn't be surprised to see Key try & stay on for a 4th term.
In regards the flag referendum perhaps that is a signal that Key is looking to step down.
I see the changing of the flag as personal 'epitaph' or monument to himself that he would go down in history for.
I think there are quite a few NZers that wouldn't mind seeing a flag change, but don't want to squander that sort of money to achieve it & would rather see status quo than spend that kind of money.

[Joshuatree]

The other scenario ;Judith Collins changes style and starts wearing a pony tail.

[craic]

Daytr


John Keys Post PM Career
He is without a doubt contemplating his post political aspirations, Ponygate will only serve to seek out a pathway. Accordingly I make the following scenario as a distinct possibility. John Key will announce his resignation to depart the leadership in late 2016. He will seek, and be appointed to the position of High Commisioner to London in early 2017 to replace Lockwood Smith

How much of your hard earned cash are you willing to wager on this prediction? I would be happy to match a reasonable wager with the assertion that John Key will lead the National Party into and through the next election.

[elZorro]

How much of your hard earned cash are you willing to wager on this prediction? I would be happy to match a reasonable wager with the assertion that John Key will lead the National Party into and through the next election.

Craic, if you look at the 'combined wisdom of 8,000 punters' on ipredict, JK is ~60% likely to drop out of being leader of the National Party sometime in 2017. Do you mean that even if National loses, and JK is still the leader just after the election, that's the bet? Or does National have to win too?

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PO150...cal-update.htm

[winner69]

A problem no government in nz has dared tackled .....student loan debt

Currently $14 billion plus in NZ ...thats are big drag on the economy.

Not trillions as in the US
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/...lending-crisis

[fungus pudding]

How much of your hard earned cash are you willing to wager on this prediction? I would be happy to match a reasonable wager with the assertion that John Key will lead the National Party into and through the next election.

I agree, and now that NZ first are better established, at this early stage I'd pick a coalition of National, Act and NZ first as the next government. NZ1st will be far more useful to Key and National with Ron Marks back in the fold, and ultimately destined to replace Winston..

[craic]

Craic, if you look at the 'combined wisdom of 8,000 punters' on ipredict, JK is ~60% likely to drop out of being leader of the National Party sometime in 2017. Do you mean that even if National loses, and JK is still the leader just after the election, that's the bet? Or does National have to win too?

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PO150...cal-update.htm

The bet is as stated. I have no idea who will win the next election - but John Key will not resign or be deposed, prior to election night. I am not interested in the ipredict people. I gamble on the share market and on the TAB and I have a lot of fun. I started a TAB account with $100 three weeks ago and since then I have probably backed thirty horses. As of this minute, I have $86 in my account with one horse to run. An awful lot of fun for $14. But the market is much more profitable.

[elZorro]

A problem no government in nz has dared tackled .....student loan debt

Currently $14 billion plus in NZ ...thats are big drag on the economy.

Not trillions as in the US
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/...lending-crisis

Our daughter has one of those loans, still on the increase until she graduates. It's part of the negatives I feel about NZ, why couldn't we set procedures, economy and taxes up so that all of our tertiary students get the nearly free education they used to get? Sure, there would have been stricter entry standards than now. But the system used to work.

Your article shows that there can be fine-tuning to the repayments system, to make it more polite and complied with. Penalty interest is a bad start, if it's excessive. I have an employee who didn't complete uni a few years back, and is paying off his student loan by drip-feed via PAYE. I know he has enough money in the bank to pay it off in full, he doesn't spend anything much, literally. But the miserable sod will just pay it off bit by bit, he probably begrudges every cent, and knows it's an interest free loan.

[winner69]

EZ, do Labour do this sort of stuff in nz
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...mpton-marginal

Remember I told you about engagement, engagement, engagement ......