If National wins ...

[Daytr]

National showing their arrogance again. A party that dismisses the electorates concerns is in trouble.
Clark's Labour did the same in their 3rd term and National in theirs is delivering the same cliché

Tim Grosser dismissing protesters around the country as either serial protesters or protesters that oppose every trade deal.
I am certainly not a serial protester & have never protested against a trade deal before.
However the TPPA is a 'Free' Trade deal only in name. A better term might be a corporate takeover.

And then there is Key when asked in parliament what benefit NZ secured by paying the Saudi businessman $4M in cash.
He avoided the question yet again by saying it was all Labour's fault.
Labour did not force them to doctor invoices or pay an individual off, National did this all on their own.
Key doesn't seem to be in a great mood judging by the vision of him several times at the rugby last night.
A great occasion that would have brought a smile to any Kiwi punter, but he looked like he was attending a funeral not a great All Black performance.

[craic]

Why offend the Australians by grinning like a Cheshire cat when they are getting flayed? And if that lot wasn't rent-a-mob then I don't know what is. A few thousand for the whole of new Zealand. Even Labour got more votes than that in the last election. Cameras couldn't find a prominent face - only their mothers would have recognised any of them.

[BlackPeter]

National showing their arrogance again. A party that dismisses the electorates concerns is in trouble.
Clark's Labour did the same in their 3rd term and National in theirs is delivering the same cliché

daytr, as well all know - power corrupts - and neither National nor Labour are immune against this effect. The difference is - when Clark was in her 3rd term, there was a capable opposition standing by to take over the reigns (and they did). So far I can't see the handover back happening next time ... even if Labour would get the numbers (and that's not what the recent polls are saying). Question - do you really think that a coalition between Labour, Green, New Zealand First and Maori Party and Mana could work? Really?

I guess - just look at Labour, even these handful of people are not able to properly support their duly elected leader. How do you think it would go if you add the diverging ideas and ambitions of Greens, Mana, Maori - and Winston ...? All supporting one Leader and one political direction?

Obviously - great stuff for a political comedy, but not necessarily for running a country ... other than downhill.

[Daytr]

Because they are Aussies Craic! ;-)

Why offend the Australians by grinning like a Cheshire cat when they are getting flayed? And if that lot wasn't rent-a-mob then I don't know what is. A few thousand for the whole of new Zealand. Even Labour got more votes than that in the last election. Cameras couldn't find a prominent face - only their mothers would have recognised any of them.

[Daytr]

Not sure BP if a coalition of that magnitude would be required.
Perhaps NZF & Labour could pull enough votes on their own.
The regions are Nationals stronghold & could be NZFs best point of success.
I wouldn't be surprised to see the Maori party swing in behind Labour & NZF as you suggest.
The Greens I would like to think could, but they are too stubborn in my view & also may struggle with Peters let alone Labour.
Agree the opposition is not as strong as it should be, particularly Labour, and that is a concern if you are like me & don't want a 4th term for National.

[BlackPeter]

Not sure BP if a coalition of that magnitude would be required.
Perhaps NZF & Labour could pull enough votes on their own.
The regions are Nationals stronghold & could be NZFs best point of success.
I wouldn't be surprised to see the Maori party swing in behind Labour & NZF as you suggest.
The Greens I would like to think could, but they are too stubborn in my view & also may struggle with Peters let alone Labour.
Agree the opposition is not as strong as it should be, particularly Labour, and that is a concern if you are like me & don't want a 4th term for National.

not so sure about your scenario ...

Labour had last time 25% and does not a lot currently to improve their rating in any way - hardly remember when I heard Little speaking last time - was it defending Labour on the "Chinese sounding names"? Is he on a long winter holiday or already preparing for his next job?

NZF had last time around 9% ... and I agree, as it currently looks (with Conservatives disintegrated) they are likely to get more votes next time. Lets assume they get half of the conservatives vote - this would give them 11%.

Haven't heard a lot from the Greens recently - but given that they so far seem to be hellbent to stay in their far left corner, do I not see how they could get any centrist votes - i.e. anything they could gain would go off Labours vote.

Agree that Greens and Peters are an unlikely mix ... and actually not sure about Maori Party and Peters (but more likely than Green IMHO). So lets add up: Labour (25) plus NZF (11) plus Maori (was it 3?) ... less than 40%.

Not sure, where you would see the remaining votes?

I don't think that Peters could get much further than into the early teens (percentage-wise) ... he is just too controversial - and from a personal perspective ... while I applaud his dedication in uncovering the winebox scandal (more than 20 years ago) - I would (and will) not vote for anybody who likes to attract votes by pulling the race card pre-election, even if he can be (if he manages to get into government) quite pragmatic ... not achieving a lot but happy to polish his baubles. Lets face it - Winston is normally entertaining and at times a useful opposition politician, but not quite as useful in government

Yes, there have been times when Labour (well - Helen Clark) pulled off results in the low 40'ies, but this was at times when Labour stood behind their leader ... and when they didn't try to fight with the Greens for the most Leftist position. I am not saying it is impossible for them to get back at least into the mid 30'ies ... but whom in Labour would you see to perform this act?

The other thing to consider is that Winston wants to conclude his political career with a knighthood ... and the only way to get that is when he works together with National. There might be a chance to get rid of John Key, but not sure whether I would see any meaningful stakes for the next government not being led by National.

Not sure - whether this is what I want ... but at least at the moment I would think that it would continue to be the least damaging option for the country - given the alternatives I can see at the moment (though Nationals slide into corruption is a concern). And yes - a stronger (and more centrist) Labour party would be good. As always indicated ... a democracy needs a strong and viable opposition to keep the government honest. Labour at the moment does very little to earn their keep in that (or any other) regard.

[Daytr]

I suppose that's where we differ (among others) is that I think National is very damaging to NZs future.
In the last Colmar Brunton Poll Labour was at 32% If they can get that to the late 30s then it is game on.
40%+ and its a game changer.
NZF I think could get 12-15% if they target the regions.
I'm being optimistic but I think its quite possible.
Little isn't the greatest orator, but that doesn't mean he wouldn't make a good PM.
Too much sway is given to persona rather than governance.
Its amasing that Peters hasn't been knighted already, perhaps its difficult to do when they are still active.
I think he wants to sign off on his career as PM, perhaps with a deal with Labour to hand over the reigns at the halfway point.
Re the Greens, you obviously haven't been listening as James Shaw has been quite vocal re the TPPA, also the Greens have been raising a lot of questions in regards Sheepgate.

[elZorro]

BP, this is going to be a tiresome argument between now and the 2017 election. No-one can know for sure what will happen, but commonsense will say that a centre left coalition outcome will be better than having National/Act/United/Maori parties in power, going on their track record.

Here's Steven Joyce going on the record about there being no recession ahead. Not sure if he's qualified to give an opinion.

17/8/2015 — General
Joyce cools recession talk

Economic Development Minister Steven Joyce said yesterday that a technical recession in the next two quarters was unlikely.
He told TV One’s Q+A programme that New Zealand will have a slowdown in economic growth to around the 2.5% mark and “no recession unless somebody across the world falls completely out of bed, and that’s always a risk.”
He had been asked by the television presenter whether there was going to be enough to stop New Zealand having a technical recession in the next six months.
Joyce said he believed there was no obvious issue, despite the fact there was a lot of fragility in the world.
The Minister said he had gone back and looked at the four previous recessions in NZ.
“What’s the difference between those and the situation that we are in today? And the reality is the world economy is still growing 3% or 4%,” he said.

[Daytr]

Hard night ? Or is Key feeling the pressure of facing up to one scandal or stuff up after another.
Or perhaps it's because he just hasn't been able to scratch that itch, or rather tug a poor young woman's ponytail in a while ?
Check out the bags under those eyes! He would give Mike Moore a run for his money!

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/news...ref=NZH_FBpage

[craic]

See some Labour members at the rent a mob marches including our local Napier bloke. He is stupid enough to risk his seat in an electorate that is pro the deal through or export fruit etc when he only won the last one because Garth McVicar who is well known and popular locally took six or seven thousand votes for the Conservatives. Haven't seen "Marty Feldman" peeping over the parapets recently? Must be on a survival course somewhere.