If National wins ...

**elZorro** · 20-08-2015, 07:25 AM

Good point Daytr, possibly a floor on the GDT prices, but where to from here, is the interesting bit that dairy farmers would like to know.

Landcorp has been in the news all week, and perhaps helped by a growing realisation that nothing is certain in the dairy world, the govt is talking with them about their big ongoing plans near Taupo. This is something of a joint venture on the old Fletcher Forests area.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farm...ry-conversions

These new farms look OK from the road, but we're swapping one monoculture (Pinus Radiata) for another (Rye/Clover crop mostly). Even through the recent dairy boom, Landcorp, with its big variety of farm operations, struggled to earn a decent ROI.

Here's a pdf of the 2014 annual report, where it states the asset base is 1.748billion, from which it earned a profit of $30mill, and from that paid a dividend to govt of $7mill. ROI is 1.7%. Nearly 700 staff running 137 farms, and average dividend of just $51,000 per farm in a good year for dairy.

It seems certain to me that they'll have to post a loss over the next year, unless meat/wool returns strengthen. If Landcorp is just a bigger version of a typical cross-section of farming operations, it's saying that these are not highly profitable operations overall, but maybe a long-term game is being played.

**macduffy** · 20-08-2015, 08:31 AM

Not unlike a lot of NZ farmers, eZ. Low cash returns, farming for the capital gains. Unfortunately, it's not that easy for Landcorp which has the complication of treaty claims against many of the farms; a training role for the industry; the "national interest" - however you like to define it! - to also consider.

**Daytr** · 20-08-2015, 08:36 AM

Well a lot of that land was put into forestry for a reason EZ. Its generally not great land in regards fertility I understand. There are also real concerns for the waterways in regards leaching of nutrients and chemicals into waterways. Not all government assets are their to make money or make a substantial return, although dairy conversion was obviously a flawed idea. If we placed more of an economic value on conservation or combating climate change by planting trees and what that would add in regards preserving land for native species etc we wouldn't then be looking to sell the land. And that doesn't mean it needs to be pine plantations either, but it could be perhaps planted in natives if the soil suits. Large manuka plantations with hives could be an option. Contract out the beekeeping. I'm sure there could be other applications as well and even native tree harvesting if done sustainably. Not everything in government needs to make a return within an election cycle, it could be planted for future generations.

**craic** · 20-08-2015, 10:03 AM

Growing trees for profit, now or in the future has been subject to massive research and development in this country. When I was undergrowing training at the FTC in Rotorua I remember a lank of Radiata, mounted on the wall. It was three or four metres long and had no knots or other defects and was a great curiosity. It would now be considered the norm as that species has been developed beyond belief. Other species were also studied including all the natives but economically, it just doesn't stack up. Eucalyptus species were promote 2-3 decades ago for fuel. The line was to sow four small blocks of E. Saligna or E. Botroides on a farm. After 4 years the first block is cut for firewood and successive blocks every year and in the fifth year block one will have coppiced and can be cut etc., I didn't work. I am cutting some of mine over twenty years later. The sale value of the wood is about $80 -$150 per tree or much less for pulp. And a big problem is that the species is notoriously unpredictable. Plant a row of identical seedling in a uniform soil and some will thrive and take off and others just sit there.

**Daytr** · 20-08-2015, 10:08 AM

The swamp kauri pillaging in Northland has finally been quantified with exports soaring 2500% in the last six years according to the NZH.
This while the MPI was asleep or purposely allowing swamp kauri miners to flout the law around exports of this ancient resource.
Its a disgrace that the MPI allowed this activity to continue with massive slabs and logs being exported under the guise that they were a finished product.
Let alone the destruction of important wetlands and the NRC has culpability in this regard as I understand it comes under their jurisdiction.
This is an incredibly valuable & finite resource that needs to be managed like any mineral resource and needs to have a similar process wrapped around it like any mine would. I'm not against swamp kauri exploitation, however it needs to be managed far better than it is now & the MPI needs to enforce the current flimsy laws and NZ needs to ensure we are making the most of the resource by following the intent of the law and exporting only finished products, which would obviously create jobs in the north.

**Daytr** · 20-08-2015, 10:16 AM

Well that's just it Craic, do they need to be grown for profit? If we valued our environment we get a different sort of profit by planting natives. Its an environmental profit and would help offset our emissions. Perhaps they can be harvested in 50 years and replaced sustainably. The 'profit doesn't need to be immediate, or don't harvest at all and actually create a beautiful native forested area. Pest fence the areas, make them a haven for native birds such as Kiwi. Honey is obviously one product that could be harvested sustainably and again also adds to the environment. I'm not saying pines or other plantations are a bad idea either, but there are numerous alternatives to dairy conversion and selling the land that could benefit our environment and perhaps get a return in the future.

Originally Posted by craic

Growing trees for profit, now or in the future has been subject to massive research and development in this country. When I was undergrowing training at the FTC in Rotorua I remember a lank of Radiata, mounted on the wall. It was three or four metres long and had no knots or other defects and was a great curiosity. It would now be considered the norm as that species has been developed beyond belief. Other species were also studied including all the natives but economically, it just doesn't stack up. Eucalyptus species were promote 2-3 decades ago for fuel. The line was to sow four small blocks of E. Saligna or E. Botroides on a farm. After 4 years the first block is cut for firewood and successive blocks every year and in the fifth year block one will have coppiced and can be cut etc., I didn't work. I am cutting some of mine over twenty years later. The sale value of the wood is about $80 -$150 per tree or much less for pulp. And a big problem is that the species is notoriously unpredictable. Plant a row of identical seedling in a uniform soil and some will thrive and take off and others just sit there.

**BlackPeter** · 20-08-2015, 05:02 PM

Latest Roy-Morgan poll is out (taken in the first 2 weeks of August):

Labour down 5 points to 27%, Greens down 2 points to 11%, National back above 50%.

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/labour-...ambit-b-177476

Maybe time for Labour to come up with something positive?

**Major von Tempsky** · 20-08-2015, 06:15 PM

Whoopee!
Aha! I'm told I have to lengthen that reply by the Bot in charge of posting - I am very very extremely pleased by that excellent result (let's see if that is acceptable :-) )

**elZorro** · 20-08-2015, 07:57 PM

By their own admission, Roy-Morgan polls are more volatile than other polls. The sample size is under 1,000, which suggests an error of +/_ 3% or so, but that's unstated. They also use random calling to landlines, whereas Colmar-Brunton make sure the correct proportion of rural and urban land lines are polled. You could argue that, these days, a big proportion of homes don't have a landline in use.

I'd like to see the next polls, when the public start to show an understanding of the state of the economy. I was talking to a couple of WINZ people today, they're preparing for a bit of an added influx of clients. Uni, schools and polytechs will be out soon, too.