If National wins ...

[Daytr]

Well then in your book the likes of Watergate would never have happened. Whistle blowers rely on this sort source because the very people in question are not being transparent in regards their dubious actions.

Knowingly receiving stolen goods and using them for financial gain qualifies by my standards

[fungus pudding]

Again on Q+A this morning Robertson shows an ability to answer questions with confidence while Little carries on spluttering. It's only a matter of time for Little. The clock is ticking, slowly, but ticking never-the-less.

[Sgt Pepper]

Again on Q+A this morning Robertson shows an ability to answer questions with confidence while Little carries on spluttering. It's only a matter of time for Little. The clock is ticking, slowly, but ticking never-the-less.

FP
There is another clock that's ticking louder and louder It is Judith Collins " political biological clock", watch out John, she is after your job. Any stuff ups she will pounce, she has nothing to lose and much to gain. Mind you it could be karma, payback for the way JK treated Bill English when he was leader

[iceman]

FP
There is another clock that's ticking louder and louder It is Judith Collins " political biological clock", watch out John, she is after your job. Any stuff ups she will pounce, she has nothing to lose and much to gain. Mind you it could be karma, payback for the way JK treated Bill English when he was leader

How did JK treat BE when he was Leader ? Bill was a Leader only for a few months after JK first entered parliament, before being replaced by Don Brash !! !

[Sgt Pepper]

How did JK treat BE when he was Leader ? Bill was a Leader only for a few months after JK first entered parliament, before being replaced by Don Brash !! !

John Key reassured Bill English to his face that he would vote for him to continue as Leader of the National Party. Yet on the day of the election in Caucus voted for Don Brash. A sign of things to come.

[Baa_Baa]

John Key reassured Bill English to his face that he would vote for him to continue as Leader of the National Party. Yet on the day of the election in Caucus voted for Don Brash. A sign of things to come.

Very insightful observation Sgt. For the sake of the National Party though (which is what sets the NP apart imo), they will ride JKs' back through the next election and worry about leadership changes after that. JK is too partisan to forsake the NP's best interests by resigning the leadership prior to the next election, and no fool in the NP would roll the PM prior to getting the 4th term. Power is everything - gain and retain, end of story. We as a populous seem to have caught the American leadership popularity contest bug, hence JK the best bet for the Party to go 4 terms. As an aside, some speculate that Crusher Colins may coup d'état JK but frankly, she's got no popularity appeal imo, and she'd be barking mad to try and roll JK only to -possibly if it works out for her -end up with leadership of the opposition! The worst job in politics, the leader of the losers! Better for her to keep her powder dry and try an 'et tu Brutus' after JK leads the NP to the 4th term, assuming she even wants to. If she moved earlier it would be obviously a vendetta, to f'JK and with it the NP's 4th term, and with that her career. That'd be one heck of an agenda! Interesting times ahead as always.

[Sgt Pepper]

Very insightful observation Sgt. For the sake of the National Party though (which is what sets the NP apart imo), they will ride JKs' back through the next election and worry about leadership changes after that. JK is too partisan to forsake the NP's best interests by resigning the leadership prior to the next election, and no fool in the NP would roll the PM prior to getting the 4th term. Power is everything - gain and retain, end of story. We as a populous seem to have caught the American leadership popularity contest bug, hence JK the best bet for the Party to go 4 terms. As an aside, some speculate that Crusher Colins may coup d'état JK but frankly, she's got no popularity appeal imo, and she'd be barking mad to try and roll JK only to -possibly if it works out for her -end up with leadership of the opposition! The worst job in politics, the leader of the losers! Better for her to keep her powder dry and try an 'et tu Brutus' after JK leads the NP to the 4th term, assuming she even wants to. If she moved earlier it would be obviously a vendetta, to f'JK and with it the NP's 4th term, and with that her career. That'd be one heck of an agenda! Interesting times ahead as always.

Thanks Baa Baa, good analysis and thought provoking
One aspect to this is how intense her unrealised ambition is how it will play out. Judith Collins is 58 and an argument could be made that time is running out for her to realise her ultimate political ambition. There are different scenarios not all of which align with her ambition.

Support John Key, National win 2017 election.

John Key has stated his admiration for Sir Keith Holyoake and at least equal his tenure. To achieve this however he would have to remain as PM until early 2020. Judith Collins would then be 63. She will be mindful that there are other, much younger contenders for National Party leader who, I would argue, are just as ambitious, especially Michael Woodhouse and Paula Bennett.

Support John Key National lose 2017 election
In this scenario, John Key will almost certainly resign or be pushed should the electorate reject National. On the assumption that they will be out of office until 2023 Judith Collins will be 66 before she would be PM. The younger contenders wont let this happen. Her political career is over.

Leadership challenge prior to 2017.
If the polls soften to the extent that the governments tenure is seriously at risk and John Key makes some signifiant mistakes then she may decide she has nothing lose, regardless how cautious the party at large is

[iceman]

I think your first scenario is the most likely Sgt Pepper. There is "Little" chance of Labour winning the 2017 election, having just finished their 2015 conference totally deprived of any new policies or ideas except to lower sugar levels in food !!!
But I do not believe Michael Woodhouse is a future leadership contender. While I competent Minister, he will never have mass appeal. My bet would be on Simon Bridges and/or Paula Bennett, but possibly after Key wins the 2020 election.
Judith Collins has no chance and will never run for it.

[Sgt Pepper]

I think your first scenario is the most likely Sgt Pepper. There is "Little" chance of Labour winning the 2017 election, having just finished their 2015 conference totally deprived of any new policies or ideas except to lower sugar levels in food !!!
But I do not believe Michael Woodhouse is a future leadership contender. While I competent Minister, he will never have mass appeal. My bet would be on Simon Bridges and/or Paula Bennett, but possibly after Key wins the 2020 election.
Judith Collins has no chance and will never run for it.

thanks for your comment Iceman
I have met Michael Woodhouse on a few occasions and was most impressed. He is intelligent, articulate and seems t have a large amount of good common sense. Personally I would have thought John Key should have chosen him to be Minister of Health over Johnathan Coleman due to his background. Mind you he is from Dunedin and I knew his mother who used to work at the hospital I work at so I suppose I am somewhat prejudiced !

[fungus pudding]

I think your first scenario is the most likely Sgt Pepper. There is "Little" chance of Labour winning the 2017 election, having just finished their 2015 conference totally deprived of any new policies or ideas except to lower sugar levels in food !!!
But I do not believe Michael Woodhouse is a future leadership contender. While I competent Minister, he will never have mass appeal. My bet would be on Simon Bridges and/or Paula Bennett, but possibly after Key wins the 2020 election.
Judith Collins has no chance and will never run for it.

Ditto to above, although I think Paula Bennett would leave Sim0on Bridges in the dust. I think she'll be next National leader.