CNU - Chorus

[GR8DAY]

Snapiti I liked your response to Xerof above you are so right in 2007 I put 10k into 5 different finance companies via Chris Lee, Hanover,United,Strategic,St Laurence and Dorchester and you know the outcome of all those only getting my 10 k back from Dorchester the rest I received a few k back in total. Jay Riggs as each day goes by I the more think Chorus and its shareholders have been let down by the Government listening to all those minority bleaters and a dinasour called the comcom

Hi Couta......just being reading thru all the advice and comments on your dilemma........most of us here understand and have experienced where you are sitting at the moment .....it's not a nice place to be and my heart goes out to you. The game we play is a dangerous one.....we are totally at the mercy of the traders, perceptions, whims, B****e, traders (night and day), market sentiment, profit downgrades/upgrades etc etc... In essence we have almost zero control on our investments. To this degree I personally treat the sharemarket with the disrepect it deserves..........I treat it as a dangerous game. I dont believe it should be like this, but the chances of getting "burnt" are very high in my opinion.
The only advice I can offer you is this........have you thought about declaring yourself to IRD as a trader and thus you can claim your losses (shud you decide to take them), declare your profits (have you made any?) ,........and then move on. Just a thought. You might find this approach offers some degree of comfort so you can change tack in regards your investments....and remember......." NEVER LOOK BACK, YOU'LL ONLY GET A SORE NECK"!!

[Hoop]

Once again thanks everyone I'm going to crawl back into my cave now its been good to share the pain I'll let you know what I end up doing and will come and and offer some advise on the retirement sector in which I have knowledge in many aspects of that may be of help to someone on this thread in the future

Couta1 you are a victim of the market cycle and you will not be alone.....basically put..when the market is perceived to be "safe" ..the very conservative investor finally yields to temptation after watching for years from the sidelines ...These investors which you are one are the last investor group to enter this market ..


Below is a fantastic article....read it...It deals with market (investor) behaviour ...you will find yourself in this article together with all the other ST posters behaviours...Knowing what drives the market place and relying less on all the other media crap makes you a smarter investor...

http://www.psgonline.co.za/resources...yfromthemasses

[brucey09]

Snrs.
Can one person tell me CNU return on capital now. Then after Diciembre 2014 lower pricing.
Gracias

[GR8DAY]

Snrs.
Can one person tell me CNU return on capital now. Then after Diciembre 2014 lower pricing.
Gracias

......12.5% maybe brucey??

[silu]

The Coppertax lobby group is pretty powerful. From all sides of the political spectrum. National is running scarred. Protecting it's political capital is not the first priority anymore. Wish there was some more clarity.

[JAYAY]

The "copper tax lobby group" is already discredited by virtue of the fact that it has become obvious that they have no intention of passing on the benefit of the price reduction. Having Sue Chetwin front the group has created the misconception that they represent the consumers. Sue Chetwin looks like a stooge for the retailers.

[brucey09]

......12.5% maybe brucey??

Snr. GR8DAY
Gracias. Now?

[GR8DAY]

Snr. GR8DAY
Gracias. Now?

......yes based on historical dividend(s).......but "DoYourOwnResearch" brucey

[biker]

xerof I take two things out of that interview, one is that chorus could appeal the decesions and it could take years to sort out and other point is Amy Adams is basically saying we wont the ultra fast broad band role out done on time and we will do anything to insure that happens.
IMHO she is right in the camp of chorus and her interview is a buy signal.

My take away from the interview is that if CNU will actually be in bad shape at the proposed copper prices as determined by the pending independent review, firstly ( she says) CNU would have to take some action themselves, and to me that means a sharp reduction in dividend and a cash issue.
Secondly ( she says) the Government would look at the contract and ease some of the provisions to make it easier for CNU. I have no idea what what they would be. Thirdly, (she says) if needed the Government would intervene and Adams stated more than once that a $5 reduction in copper price versus a $10 reduction may be palatable enough to ensure the job is done.
My view is that these three options will be employed. Shareholders will be seen to be contributing (after all CNU tendered for this thing) the copper/internet users will be contributing in the interests of the future of UFB, and the tax payer won't be seen to be stumping up cash to bail out a listed company.
As to where this leaves the CNU shareprice, I would say quite weak until CNU's capital structure is sorted out, and then eventually dependent on CNUs on going performance and how much of their financial viability they have managed to obfuscate or keep hidden from the investigation.
If I was holding CNU I would probably continue holding at around two bucks but certainly with the possibility of more downside. I don't think the Government will fix this without the shareholders taking a hit. Whether they consider they have taken a big enough hit already is a mute point. If so there is probably upside. If not, look out below.

Disc. Sold out at higher levels. Too much uncertainty for me, but at some level they will be good value. I think it's too hard to determine that level at the moment.

[Iolite]

xerof I take two things out of that interview, one is that chorus could appeal the decesions and it could take years to sort out and other point is Amy Adams is basically saying we wont the ultra fast broad band role out done on time and we will do anything to insure that happens.
IMHO she is right in the camp of chorus and her interview is a buy signal.

While I agree with much of your comment, my personal opinion is that she is not entirely in the camp of Chorus. Both in her comments on Friday and in the TV3 Nation interview (at about 10 mins 22 seconds in) she states that "first and foremost" they will be looking at whether Chorus can adjust its own business operations to absorb any shortfall on funding the UFB roll out. To me the most obvious way that Chorus could do this would be to cut their dividend and, based on Amy Adam's comments, I think the Government would expect Chorus to cut the dividend entirely before they would be prepared to do anything like overrule the Com Com, lend money to Chorus, or buy a stake in Chorus.

I bought a small bundle of Chorus shares a few months ago, primarily for the high dividend, planning to hold long-term, and knowing there was regulatory risk coming. I felt at the time that the Government would do more to intervene if the Com Com's decision was at the low end. SO far the Government's response has not been to my satisfaction and given that I now believe the dividend will be the first thing to go I sold my very small holding on Friday at a loss. As a fairly young investor I'm starting to look more at growth companies and with a very limited amount of money available to invest I'm not keen on having any of it tied up in shares that are embroiled in regulatory limbo. I'm planning to put the money into stocks that I hope will give a better return in the next year or so.