CNU - Chorus

[couta1]

Just a matter of time and everyone will wonder what they were worried about when CNU was below 1.50.

Who's worried about $1.50,anything under $2 is still a worry IMHO

[Casino]

Who's worried about $1.50,anything under $2 is still a worry IMHO

I feel sorry for all the shareholders that were screwed. Right now, we only hear about the most extreme measures and outcomes but sooner or later a sensible solution will be found once this circus has served its purpose.

[brentk]

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/tech-tr...orus-ck-150642

Perhaps I'm looking at this a bit simplistically, but I can't see why a version of the "nuclear option" doesn't give Chorus a get out of jail free to any pricing Comcom would try & push on them? This option seems to be talked up as being hugely dramatic, but I don't see why it has to be.

For example, Chorus says 'sure thing' to the Comcom pricing - 'we can provide an entry level copper connection for that price' and proceeds to offer perhaps dialup or slightly faster, say 128k or 256k (so it still official qualifies as 'broadband' for PR purposes) - offered at comcom pricing. Then continue to offer 'advanced connection' full speed ADSL over copper at whatever the hell price they want ... say the price it currently is. I for one will continue to pay for decent bandwidth until I cat get UFB - which would now be at a at a very similar price and very compelling.

I don't see this as being all that dramatic an option? Definitely well short of 'nuclear' and means all Comcom has succeed in doing is creating a new cheaper but slower version of the broadband offering (one that I'd imagine half the retailers wouldn't even bother offering). And if Chorus does have a lever offering so much control, surely this leaves them in a position no-so-worse-off than when everything went tits up in Nov? (aside from scaring the hell out of investors at how readily politics can screw with this business)

Am I missing something here?

[Harvey Specter]

Am I missing something here?

Try and find some comments from Paul Brind___ (?) on this on previous NBR articles. I think he puts forward his view on why this wouldn't work. Something about retailers installing their own equipment.

[fish]

Try and find some comments from Paul Brind___ (?) on this on previous NBR articles. I think he puts forward his view on why this wouldn't work. Something about retailers installing their own equipment.

Wouldn't that be investing in not only equipment but installation which would soon be obsolete by the time its fitted by a cheap offering of fibre?

[couta1]

Perhaps I'tooking at this a bit simplistically, but I can't see why a version of the "nuclear option" doesn't give Chorus a get out of jail free to any pricing Comcom would try & push on them? This option seems to be talked up as being hugely dramatic, but I don't see why it has to be.

For example, Chorus says 'sure thing' to the Comcom pricing - 'we can provide an entry level copper connection for that price' and proceeds to offer perhaps dialup or slightly faster, say 128k or 256k (so it still official qualifies as 'broadband' for PR purposes) - offered at comcom pricing. Then continue to offer 'advanced connection' full speed ADSL over copper at whatever the hell price they want ... say the price it currently is. I for one will continue to pay for decent bandwidth until I cat get UFB - which would now be at a at a very similar price and very compelling.

I don't see this as being all that dramatic an option? Definitely well short of 'nuclear' and means all Comcom has succeed in doing is creating a new cheaper but slower version of the broadband offering (one that I'd imagine half the retailers wouldn't even bother offering). And if Chorus does have a lever offering so much control, surely this leaves them in a position no-so-worse-off than when everything went tits up in Nov? (aside from scaring the hell out of investors at how readily politics can screw with this business)

Am I missing something here?

I think this option would be in the too hard basket being an election year with all the bleaters around from last year plus the general public getting up in arms also, if chorus took this option the Govt could tighten contract roll out or even retender entire project,i think there will be much softer options being worked out behind the scenes between CFH and CNU,

[brentk]

I think this option would be in the too hard basket being an election year with all the bleaters around from last year plus the general public getting up in arms also, if chorus took this option the Govt could tighten contract roll out or even retender entire project,i think there will be much softer options being worked out behind the scenes between CFH and CNU,

I would think the Govt would more likely be happy to try to end up with an outcome that didn't involve them. Especially involve them looking like they were giving a handout to big business. I also can't see the connection between Chorus changing its copper pricing & the Govt suddenly having the rights to retender or alter the UFB arrangement - presumably which are locked down in contracts the size of an encyclopedia britannica?

Also I guess a point I was trying to make is the 'nuclear' option perhaps could be pulled back to say a bit of carpet bombing, by not dropping all the way to 30kbps (which IMO if done would be to make a statement) - instead go somewhere in between - maybe 256 or even 512kbps - enough so 10mbps still looks slick & worth paying what it currently costs, but not so much as to incentivise ISP's to invest heavily in hardware duplication (which as fish pointed out would be going rapidly obsolete) or justify a knee-jerk reaction by the media/public/Govt.

[bull....]

breakout on the charts

[mrjeems]

Moody's downgrades Chorus from Baa2 to Baa3

Moody's Investors Service has today issued an announcement downgrading
Chorus' issuer and unsecured credit rating from Baa2 to Baa3, with negative
outlook.

Moody's had previously placed Chorus on review for possible downgrade,
following the release of the Commerce Commission's copper broadband (UBA)
pricing decision in November.

Chorus chief financial officer Andrew Carroll said the downgrade was
disappointing given that the Commission's pricing decision does not come into
effect until December 2014 and the range of initiatives Chorus continues to
explore to mitigate the financial impact of the Commission's final UBA
decision. Moody's decision will result in an immediate but modest increase
in the cost of Chorus' borrowing.

"As we explained in December, we are assessing all options available to us,
including cutting all discretionary activity, re-pricing commercial services,
generally managing for cash and assessing capital management options. We
have also commenced constructive discussions with Crown Fibre Holdings. While
this work continues, we cannot finalise our medium term strategy or capital
management settings.

"In addition, Chorus has appealed the Commission's initial UBA decision to
the High Court and requested that the Commission undertake economic cost
modelling of both UBA and UCLL pricing, which differs from its original
benchmarking approach, as allowed for by the legislation," he said.

Chorus is currently rated BBB, creditwatch negative, by Standard & Poor's.

[silu]

Can't tell you how glad I am to be out of this one.