CNU - Chorus

[mikeybycrikey]

I'm constantly amused by posts on this thread from investors hoping that the government will help out the Chorus monopoly by castrating the Commerce Commission. It just seems a bit desperate to me.

Good luck to them on the fibre rollout but count me out of wanting higher broadband prices to help your shareholding.

[nextbigthing]

We seem to have different understandings and you are entitled to your belief.
Important buffet principles--
The principles included:
1.Purchase businesses with excellent long-term prospects
2.Purchase businesses at a large discount to their intrinsic value
3.Purchase businesses with a high return on invested capital
4.Purchase businesses with honest managers

Clearly he wouldn't have bought at 3.50 with impending com com decision
Post election changes the value but not yet recognized fully by market-Would buffet have noticed?

Sure, but you left out number five which was the most important in CNU's case.

[fish]

I'm constantly amused by posts on this thread from investors hoping that the government will help out the Chorus monopoly by castrating the Commerce Commission. It just seems a bit desperate to me.

Good luck to them on the fibre rollout but count me out of wanting higher broadband prices to help your shareholding.

The market is waking up to the fact that com com has not compared apples with apples and will be forced to value chorus prices for copper in relation to a fair return on asset value .At close today chorus is up to 1.92 and 3 times as many buyers as sellers.
It has nothing to do with castrating com com .It may not require government intervention nor an increase in the price of your broadband.
Do you honestly believe that spark and vodaphone will pass on the reduction in price of copper in December?

[Mista_Trix]

I think also if you look at fibre uptake, those on copper will not stay there long. The requirement for data is growing exponentially.
I've recently moved online with music - streaming rather than playing what I already own, its more interesting, and learns what you like and feeds it to you. I honestly find it a lot easier than flicking through my endless *.mp3s - "Internet, play me something that I'll like", is so much easier.

Apply this same logic to TV and Movies (legitimately or not), and boom.
They've made access to legal music easier than trying to find it illegally, as soon as they do that for the rest of consumable media you're going to see data use exponentially take off.

I'm sitting on 32% gains on this. I was lucky enough to buck out early and didn't get hit too badly when it dropped. Long may she steadily climb. The slower and stabler the better

[Bobdn]

Can you imagine the hypocritical calls for the Government to intervene if the Com Com valued Chorus' UBA price well above $45 as a result of the FPP? It would be funny to watch. All of the sudden there'd be people demanding that the "Government do something" and RSPs and their PR hacks would be "outraged". Ok, I know this is fantasy but its something I like to think about.

[BIRMANBOY]

Do tell...most people usually settle for Pamela Anderson or George Clooney.

Can you imagine the hypocritical calls for the Government to intervene if the Com Com valued Chorus' UBA price well above $45 as a result of the FPP? It would be funny to watch. All of the sudden there'd be people demanding that the "Government do something" and RSPs and their PR hacks would be "outraged". Ok, I know this is fantasy but its something I like to think about.

[bunter]

Worth 3.02 IMHO but very hard to value.

Calculated / guessed as follows - criticism welcome!

- CNE NPAT was 38cps and EBIT 80cps at the last 08/14 report
- They *could* therefore pay a div - but that would undermine their strategy of bleating to the govt / comcom.
- Once the bleating process is over - they'll pay divs - CNU say 'no div before June 2015'

So, making allowances / wild guesses at loss of income (from the comcom decision and atrophy of the land line business) AND gain of income (fibre uptake)

		14h1	14 fy	15 fy	16	17	18
	rev	535	1070	1000	930	950	970
	exp	206	412	400	400	400	400
	ebitda	329	658	600	530	550	570
	d+a	162	324	324	324	324	324
	EBIT	167	334	276	206	226	246
	int	59	118	118	118	118	118
	ebt	108	216	158	88	108	128
	tax	30	60	47.4	26.4	32.4	38.4
	npat	78	156	110.6	61.6	75.6	89.6
	eps	0.195	0.39	0.2765	0.154	0.189	0.224

div

0

0

0.08295

0.077

0.1323

0.1792

Other factors:

- The government is CNU's partner. I think this is a good thing.
- Is fibre going to take off? I guess it will.

[JayRiggs]

Woah, CNU just touched $2 this afternoon.
Time to buy back in?

[Harvey Specter]

Woah, CNU just touched $2 this afternoon.
Time to buy back in?

Other than the election (which seems to have triggered the recent rise), there hasn't been any significant news since it was below 1.50.

[couta1]

Woah, CNU just touched $2 this afternoon.
Time to buy back in?

I'm just waiting for the draft to be released in December to see where the ConCon is heading with the FPP first.