CNU - Chorus

[Silverlight]

Okay, as long as the rationale of buy now ties with the hope of potential capital gain of course I could understand. But that to me is more based on chance. Also I don't think if someone is looking for a "Vector-like" yield share they should buy now with CNU simply because it is not a boring and yield-only share just yet as you point out. If they buy later, they will only get the yield, but perhaps that suit them better too in terms of risk tolerance.

For me, I do worry about surprise on the downside, like cost. Well I am sure as time goes we will get a better idea of labor or material costs from many companies' reports and various economic studies.

Who knows, maybe if it drops further while you would double down, I may just get in and join you as well

As a simple monopoly business model Chorus is exactly like Vector, in that it owns a piece of infrastructure, that is hard to replicate and the government regulates the prices it can charge for said infrastructure.

What would send Chorus share price to $2? to $1.50? to $1?

I don't see that happening based on earnings forecasts, but interested what you see given your view that their is still downside risks.

[futurist]

As a simple monopoly business model Chorus is exactly like Vector, in that it owns a piece of infrastructure, that is hard to replicate and the government regulates the prices it can charge for said infrastructure.

What would send Chorus share price to $2? to $1.50? to $1?

I don't see that happening based on earnings forecasts, but interested what you see given your view that their is still downside risks.

Sorry, when I refer to "Vector-like" in my previous post I was linking it back to CJ's idea and so it may not align with the general consent, hence the quotations I put there. Besides, VCT has been quite stable trading within a range for the last 18 months so I think we could argue for now VCT and CNU is not yet similar (which is CJ's point). But let's not discuss a term that is used in different contexts anyway.

To your question, I honestly don't know. I won't even predict the SP to a particular point because that is against my own belief system. I fear that costs would be higher than forecast but that is more of a guess from the macro variables than anything else. I am happy to be wrong, so let's just wait and see.

Maybe I will answer you this. Personally buying CNU is for the dividend yield. For capital gain, I will look elsewhere. So for CNU to be "Vector-like" (again CJ's point), I will wait a bit. It does not matter if it goes down or up, as long as there are stabilizing done deals then it is good time to get in. I think at some level, I am against the preach of buying CNU now based on the dividend yield rationale, because that is not really the key motivation behind reflected in the discussion. If one buys now, it is for the capital gain betting against a lost from the regulatory agent.

[CJ]

The vector like returns will only arrive once the regulatory issues are resolved. Until then, the uncertainty means the share price will be volatile as we have seen. I don't know where the bottom Is, otherwise I wouldn't have bought last month.

Re costs, in theory they should be added to the RAB on which the regulated return is based.

[Mista_Trix]

Shares go up, and shares go down. But when they go up on healthy numbers, we should be thankful. CNU is up 8c today to $2.50, with two strong days in price recovery. Around 600,000 traded so far today.

I wish I'd had some $ to chuck in at the $2.28 point, but alas I couldnt free any up.

[Jim]

I wish I'd had some $ to chuck in at the $2.28 point, but alas I couldnt free any up.

I wanted to buy at 10,000 at $2.30 but when I look at the depth they was only 1500 on offer so I just gave up.

[hilskin]

Broadband policy faces probability of repeated political intervention

The regime governing New Zealand's ultra-fast broadband roll-out risks "the real probability of repeated political intervention as those in public office exercise their legislated powers to safeguard taxpayer investments and secure their political objecti

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/772a6175/broadband-policy-faces-probability-of-repeated-political-intervention.html

[hilskin]

Yes Sparky, thought i'd add the article to help reassure the believers. I'm a believer

[Mista_Trix]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=10894730

These kind of deals in the long run can only be good news for Chorus.

[comspec]

I just signed up with Telecom's new VDSL service. As I posted in the TEL thread:

Great minds think alike Sparky. I have a technician turning up later this week to install the VDSL. Call centre staff member did say I’d be very impressed with the speed differentiation from ADSL2. Interesting comment they made with VDSL signups also and lack of interest in UFB. Cost-wise works out to be $10 month more as all my products with Telecom. I’ll post my speedtest results when it’s installed. (Current = Download 13.56Mbps, Upload 1.10 Mbps, Source = http://speedtest.telecom.co.nz/)

Tad concerned that the staff member more-or-less talked me out of UFB, don’t know how this will reflect on the Chorus UFB uptake.

[spotty]

My speedtest came out at download 15.88 and upload at .97. Would be interested to hear what speeds you guys get after the vdsl installed.
Surely this must work in Chorus best interest if its another product they can provide to bridge the gap between getting fibre connected and Telecom would appear to be pushing it instead of fibre. The fibre rollout in my area is not due for another 18 months so it could be a starter to bridge the gap. It appears Chorus is starting to branch into other partnerships with other company's to provide other non mainstream core services which could be good for shareholders, saw this add on trademe http://www.trademe.co.nz/jobs/custom...-605596234.htm
I put a small order in @ 233 cents and had it 90% filled so I'm happy with the rise over the past week.

Disc now holding CNU
spotty