CNU - Chorus

[sharer]

Once again some speculate: What if TLS.nzx or .asx put in a bid for TEL ??

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/indu...-Reynolds-wake

Apparently TLS expect soon to have a lot of free cashflow & NBN related $$ looking for investment. So what if TLS thought their problems with their NZ network might ameliorate if they bought a nice big chunk of Chorus ??

Even more speculatively, what if one of the other fairly strong Oz telecoms companies took a serious interest in either TEL or CNU ??

[Major von Tempsky]

Excellent article today in The Press, page A14, by "Chalkie" entitled "Commission revs Up Broadband Pricing".Required reading for all CNU holders. Hasn't appeared via Google yet.

Amongst other things the article identies two crucial dates, July 11 and August 10.

Why these dates? The former is when the ComComm chairman Ross Patterson's contract is up for renewal which is now in some doubt for attempted sabotage of the Government's UFB program. A suicide bombing perhaps? He may go the same way as the recently departed ACC chairman. Mark it on your calendar.

August 10? The date CoCom comes out with a final decision on UCLL pricing. Mark that on your calendar too.

[Major von Tempsky]

Thank MvT, but a couple of points:

1) Ross Patterson is not Chairman, though he is up for renewal as commissioner. Mark Berry is chairman.
2) Patterson is already hunting for jobs overseas, according to the Herald around a week ago http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=10810825

I have a feeling the govt is taking a greater interest in how the ComCom impacts on businesses, which mirrors the concerns you, I and a few others have raised here in the last month or two.

Chalkie's article is online here : http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opin...adband-pricing

Thank you for that correction Sparky, Commissioner then. Let's hope that dear Ross finds something suitable overseas, even if at a reduced rate rate of pay with a suitable left wing government....

[Major von Tempsky]

Interesting page 402 on Teletext today.

"New Zealand Infamous for Telco Regulation.

New Zealand is gaining an international reputation for extreme and unpredictable regulation by its competition watchdog, the Commerce Commission, says Andrew Bascand, managing director of fund manager Harbour Asset Development".

(So, I started thinking of suggested countries for Commissioner Ross Patterson to score his next job when he is not re-appointed July 10. How about Argentina, Venezuela, Belarus, Ukraine, Russia?)

[Major von Tempsky]

Hooray! and up she rises, earlie in the morning!

Radio news lunchtime today. Old fashioned socialist Ross Patterson gone from ComCom, replaced by a man with riding instructions to advance UFB!

[blockhead]

Now down to 3.19 in intra-day trading, down 9c today. Very volatile. Anyone know whats happening with CNU today?

TEL not looking very rosy either

[Major von Tempsky]

Trouble is, a lot of investors still consider TEL and CNU together as if they were still one unit, that there hasn't been a demerger and they don't operate in different markets under different conditions. Take a look at the TEL and CNU turnover particularly early in the day when overseas investors dominate - it's usually TEL number 1 by miles and number 3 for CNU after Fletcher showing that the overseas investors have, by and large, held onto their CNU shares after the demerge.

That being the case I think the explanation for CNU is provided by TEL. TEL announced that AMP is no longer a significant holder - you get these announcements all the time, there was a recent one saying Black Rock Investments is now a significant holder, and all the weak holders dived for cover. Either that or its another proxy play on the NZ dollar again, speculating in TEL is a good way of speculating in the NZ dollar. I guess the $ is up so overseizure is taking profits.NZ

[Major von Tempsky]

NZ dollar goes down yesterday, TEL and CNU share prices go up. Prior to that NZ dollar goes up and TEL and CNU share prices go down. Add in good doses of extra leverage to exaggerate the movements and you're there.

Magic. Voodoo.

Pity all the currency speculators can't just b****r off and leave these shares to NZ investors and fundamental analysis.

[Major von Tempsky]

I'm happy to wait until Aug 27th to get a real steer on things :-)

No need to ask what the NZ dollar's done today, just look at the TEL and CNU shareprices.

Unfortunately the NZ$ is the 10th most traded international currency - I guess because we have about the cleanest float out....

[sharer]

Radio news tonight reports the three main wealthy promoters for the new transoceanic cable have now abandoned the scheme. Apparently they could raise only about half the money needed.
This seems to validate the earlier critiques.
Hope somebody at Chorus will notice, & have a good think.