CDL & CDI ... Another Great Result

[BlackPeter]

I'm interested in buying back in after selling early this year. Does anyone have any ideas about the legislation likely to replace the RMA and how it might affect developers such as CDL?

How could anybody know, given that the parties themselves only know that they might scrap the RMA and replace it with something else. Whoever will govern next term and whatever they might do, I suspect they find its not as easy as they now think. However - with a bit of luck they might manage to reduce a bit of red tape (though I am not holding my breath), which should make life easier for CDL, but on the other hand might create as well more competition (land development would be easier for others as well).

Take real estate prices as the canary in the coal mine. As long as they climb that's good for CDL. If they start dropping big time, that's bad for CDL. However - I don't see any party fancying the latter either - bad outcome of they want to be re-elected.

[DarkHorse]

Absolutely - none of he politicians have a quick fix. If supply remains tight, then real estate prices generally will continue to be supportive; if rules are loosened, then that will create development opportunities and it will take some time for prices to be affected. I suppose CDL will do OK either way Council regulations also relevant. Has anyone had a go at calculating their true NTA based on market prices?

[Southern Lad]

Plenty of section sales under contract or in active negotiation at the Prestons Park subdivision in Christchurch:

https://www.prestonspark.co.nz/sections-for-sale/

The sections currently listed as 'for sale' are a mix of titles being issued in H2 FY20 and H1 FY21.

CDL run a 'On Hold' process where interested purchasers can place a 7 day hold on an unsold section. There are quite a few sections listed as being on hold, which suggests plenty of ongoing buyer interest. No guarantees the 'holds' convert to sales contracts, however there isn't a lot of freely available sections that have been released which presumably increases the FOMO.

Looks like there are a few stages yet to be released, which bodes well for CDL's immediate future.

[macduffy]

I haven't been counting either but I've been watching and picking up a few at 77.5 cents. The big seller keeps feeding the market at 78 cents and when they are taken out more appear at the same price. When the price breaks above 78 cents I think we can assume the big volume seller at this price has finished or is taking a pause. The volume offered below 78 cents has been relatively small.

Shareprice edging up and today at 81c. Perhaps the big seller has sold all or most of what has been for sale. It may be a case of lightening off, rather than selling out?

[frostyboy]

It looks like since 12 October the big seller; Aberdeen is no longer selling at market to the buyer bids. If they have been selling, then they've changed tactics to selling at limit price

[jimdog31]

It looks like since 12 October the big seller; Aberdeen is no longer selling at market to the buyer bids. If they have been selling, then they've changed tactics to selling at limit price

Agreed. They were putting through some big lots @ 77.5. I bought a 25k parcel@ 81, 5 mins later another 25k came back @ 81c

[jimdog31]

Agreed. They were putting through some big lots @ 77.5. I bought a 25k parcel@ 81, 5 mins later another 25k came back @ 81c

Massive off market at 75c?

75

10,608,665

12:39

SP H

[Southern Lad]

Massive off market at 75c?

75

10,608,665

12:39

SP H

Standard Life Aberdeen plc disclosed a shareholding of 13,277,891 CDI shares on 15 September 2020 when they fell below the 5% disclosure threshold. Assuming they have continued to sell over the last five weeks, maybe this is them out completely?

If this sale is the end of the overhang of shares on market, maybe there is some share price appreciation ahead (especially given the relatively good dividend yield). Or maybe the purchaser of the 10.6m shares will be tempted to offload some back into the market to realise a short term gain over the 75 cents purchase price?

[jimdog31]

Standard Life Aberdeen plc disclosed a shareholding of 13,277,891 CDI shares on 15 September 2020 when they fell below the 5% disclosure threshold. Assuming they have continued to sell over the last five weeks, maybe this is them out completely?

If this sale is the end of the overhang of shares on market, maybe there is some share price appreciation ahead (especially given the relatively good dividend yield). Or maybe the purchaser of the 10.6m shares will be tempted to offload some back into the market to realise a short term gain over the 75 cents purchase price?

Your thoughts oin why they so intent on unloading? @ 75c that seems well below market?

[Southern Lad]

A fund manager could have any range of reasons for selling such as:

1. Not wanting to be a trapped minority shareholder (noting that CDL Singapore control CDI);
2. They have identified alternative investments that they think have better growth prospects;
3. They have a negative view on the NZ economy, residential property subdivision, the future NZD exchange rate;
4. The CDI balance sheet is too lazy (no debt, cash in bank, and a dividend that is a low proportion of operating cash flow); or
5. Imputation credits of less value to them than NZ shareholders.

I'm not offering an opinion on whether any of the above factors are likely to be of real concern but rather offer them up to illustrate a point.

I also see there is some strife going down at CDL Singapore - see https://www.straitstimes.com/busines...ard-management

Given share trade price over the last few moths, 75 cents to offload a 3% stake in one go is probably what you would expect.