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Thread: Moving averages

  1. #11
    SRV is a God STRAT's Avatar
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    lol Lou. Thats the typo of all typos, eh?

  2. #12
    Senior Member Halebop's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by lou View Post
    hahaha I missed out the key point.

    Using a moving average indicator for listed property trusts (pfi) is not a good tactic as the price is relatively stable and the dividends high and consistent.
    Ahhhh [Penny Drops]

  3. #13
    Reincarnated Panthera Snow Leopard's Avatar
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    Arrow More than one one to use an average.

    Quote Originally Posted by lou View Post
    Using a moving average indicator for listed property trusts (pfi) is not a good tactic as the price is relatively stable and the dividends high and consistent.
    Unless you use the MA to tell you when the price is (relatively) cheap and do your buying under the average.

    best wishes
    Paper Tiger
    om mani peme hum

  4. #14
    Reincarnated Panthera Snow Leopard's Avatar
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    Cool A little hysteresis goes a long way

    Quote Originally Posted by darksentinel View Post
    Yeah, as I said, indicative. It's just some data I had on hand that I'd been playing with. I've locked at a couple of stocks, and they give interesting results for using the crossing points of two different MAs.

    Here's a spreadsheet of what I'd been doing using a 29 SMA/Price cross: http://dl.dropbox.com/u/44057876/NZX50.xlsx. It clearly shows the triggers and the problems (e.g. 26 trades were only held for 1 day). Average holding period was 15 days, but if you remove everything 1-day trade, then average holding period goes up 25, pre-brokerage profits go up to 97.7% and of course brokerage costs go down as well.

    NB: all % gains are non-cummulative (non-compounding).

    And yes, this is back-testing and data-fitting. Just making the point that MAs can be a useful (and simple) tool
    If you wish to reduce the whipsawing of having entry and exit based on a single MA then you modify you entry criteria to when the price rises a few percent above the MA and you sell when the price drops a few percent below the MA.

    Still a simple system but with two independent variables to play with giving you hours of fun.

    However you go about determining a useful system getting your exits conditions right and sticking to them is more important than getting your entries right.

    best wishes
    Paper Tiger
    om mani peme hum

  5. #15
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    I have shares in AGL that have done OK in a little over 10 months.

    It was a punt based on a morningstar recommendation.

    A transition to green energy and an activist shareholder has me thinking this is no longer the dividend payer I was after and not very comfortable with it.

    Morningstar still has a $13.30 valuation but now only an "accumulate" recommendation. (seems odd as the recommendation price is currently 51% above todays price. That sounds more like a buy to me if you believe in your valuation)

    My question is I am happy to let my profits run but on a purely technical basis what would you look for in price movements to sell at the simplest level. E.g. crossing the 90day moving average or would you use a longer time period.

    Indicators on the ASB securities website are volume, RSI and Stochastic fast and slow I assume a lot of the price movement has been the billionaire buying his stake in the company.

    Torn as I don’t want to sell in case Morningstar is right and I have another 51% upside in capital appreciation but not comfortable with the company. I was thinking maybe TA can stop me selling out too soon.

    The slow Stochastic squiggle is above 80 I guess sell if it drops below that.

    Any thoughts appreciated.
    Last edited by Aaron; 09-06-2022 at 03:03 PM.

  6. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aaron View Post
    I have shares in AGL that have done OK in a little over 10 months.

    It was a punt based on a morningstar recommendation.

    A transition to green energy and an activist shareholder has me thinking this is no longer the dividend payer I was after and not very comfortable with it.

    Morningstar still has a $13.30 valuation but now only an "accumulate" recommendation. (seems odd as the recommendation price is currently 51% above todays price. That sounds more like a buy to me if you believe in your valuation)

    My question is I am happy to let my profits run but on a purely technical basis what would you look for in price movements to sell at the simplest level. E.g. crossing the 90day moving average or would you use a longer time period.

    Indicators on the ASB securities website are volume, RSI and Stochastic fast and slow I assume a lot of the price movement has been the billionaire buying his stake in the company.

    Torn as I donít want to sell in case Morningstar is right and I have another 51% upside in capital appreciation but not comfortable with the company. I was thinking maybe TA can stop me selling out too soon.

    The slow Stochastic squiggle is above 80 I guess sell if it drops below that.

    Any thoughts appreciated.
    No advice forthcoming so sold as the 80 line was hit as well as a financial hurricane coming. Interesting to see what I missed in 12 months $8.80 on the 9/6/2022.

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