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  1. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by BIRMANBOY View Post
    The only thing I would add is that in my opinion rather than waiting for the "best time" to buy you might consider buying on the periodic dips that most stocks go through. If you have access to a 5 year chart facility you may see a stock that has experienced 3 or 4 or more swings or dips over the 5 years. if you look to add holdings in the dips you have the benefit of averaging out your occasional "high" buy.
    Yes, that's exactly why I'm holding off for the time being. The NZX does not appear to be in one of those periodic dips at the moment, although it's hard to tell. But of greater concern is the larger picture - at present we're 3yrs+ into a bull market (beginning about April 2009) - just as the Dow and S&P500 are - and bull markets have an infuriating habit of coming to an unseemly end. There seems no shortage of possible events that could trigger a more serious cyclical correction: Europocalypse or just a Spanish/Italian default, a Brazilian or Chinese credit crunch, another b****er scandal/collapse etc. Maybe I'm overly pessimistic, but I think I'll just enter relatively lightly for now (but pretty much in the way you suggest). Nonetheless, it's hard to see a company like RYM being anything but a very good bet in the long-term.


    EDIT: what's up with the hash tags? So I wrote 'banker' with a superfluous 'w', it doesn't make me a bad person!
    Last edited by Fudo_Myou; 12-07-2012 at 02:17 AM.

  2. #12
    percy
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    Very difficult buying at exactly the right time.I usually try to buy after the Dow has had a bad day.
    Earnings and dividend growth are the driving forces that will propell your porfolio.So selection is very important.Your selection is excellent. Should markets drop your selection of companies will rebound very quickly as they have strong earnings and balance sheets.
    So I think selection for a long term portfolio is most probably more important than timing.You should not have to sell any of your shares.
    You will only need to sell a share if it does something different from the reason you brought it.

  3. #13
    Advanced Member BIRMANBOY's Avatar
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    I"m not saying look for dips in the overall market...I'm saying look for dips in individual companies share prices. If you see for example that a hypothetical share for company X seems to swing between $2 and $3 and has done so on a number of occasions over the last several years then it would be reasonable to expect it to do the same thing (bar any unusual situations). So you could have a number of companies on your watch list and buy as and when one of them goes into a "low" phase. Just because the markets are "down" or "up" doesnt mean there aren't good buys in individual stocks. Obviously if there has been no "up" movement at all in a stock then that would mean stay away until some obvious upward change has happened and solidified over time. RYM is not for me because I look for dividends and its not that good for dividends but yes for long term growth it should be reliable.
    Quote Originally Posted by Fudo_Myou View Post
    Yes, that's exactly why I'm holding off for the time being. The NZX does not appear to be in one of those periodic dips at the moment, although it's hard to tell. But of greater concern is the larger picture - at present we're 3yrs+ into a bull market (beginning about April 2009) - just as the Dow and S&P500 are - and bull markets have an infuriating habit of coming to an unseemly end. There seems no shortage of possible events that could trigger a more serious cyclical correction: Europocalypse or just a Spanish/Italian default, a Brazilian or Chinese credit crunch, another b****er scandal/collapse etc. Maybe I'm overly pessimistic, but I think I'll just enter relatively lightly for now (but pretty much in the way you suggest). Nonetheless, it's hard to see a company like RYM being anything but a very good bet in the long-term.


    EDIT: what's up with the hash tags? So I wrote 'banker' with a superfluous 'w', it doesn't make me a bad person!

  4. #14
    Guru
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    Auckland
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    Quote Originally Posted by BIRMANBOY View Post
    I"m not saying look for dips in the overall market...I'm saying look for dips in individual companies share prices.
    Likewise look for peaks for selling. I head butt my desk everytime I look at FBU and remember when it hit over $9.30. As it started to slide I should have known the good times were over and could pick it up when it dipped again.

    I need to get smarter than my buy and hold strategy.
    Free delivery worldwide with Book Depository http://www.bookdepository.co.uk

  5. #15
    Advanced Member BIRMANBOY's Avatar
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    AH yes, the clarity that hindsight can give is remarkable. Myou-san says he is looking for a long term hold policy however in his original statement. Is it smarter or luckier you want. Cementing in gains is the dilemma we probably wish we faced more frequently. My guess is we dwell on "should haves" or "could haves" ...since no-one likes to think they let a hefty profit slip through the fingers. I've lost track of the money I've "lost" on Telecom ebbs and flows. However I console myself with the thought that I dont have to pay the IRD their share of my gains, since their anal-retentive officers might argue by buying and selling and then buying back in looks suspiciously like trading as opposed to investing. Buying and holding is as boring as s**t and as sexy as thermal underwear, but is the cornerstone policy of the long term investor.

    CJ
    QUOTE=CJ;377185]Likewise look for peaks for selling. I head butt my desk everytime I look at FBU and remember when it hit over $9.30. As it started to slide I should have known the good times were over and could pick it up when it dipped again.

    I need to get smarter than my buy and hold strategy.[/QUOTE]
    Last edited by BIRMANBOY; 12-07-2012 at 03:00 PM.

  6. #16
    Legend
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    Quote Originally Posted by KW View Post
    Ever since they invented ETFs you can no longer use gold mining companies as a proxy for the gold price, as everyone who hedges or speculates on gold buys/sells the ETFs and not mining shares. Gold miners now rise and fall with their company fundamentals and the general market, not the price of gold. This is why gold mining stocks have underperformed the gold price, but have tracked the market. If they are not producing gold, but are explorers, you can pretty much expect to lose your dosh. If you wish to track the gold price you need to buy/sell gold ETFs.
    Thanks for the advice KW, and I will have a look at your other post further on too. I think most of the bigger miners do follow gold fairly closely in the shorter term, but as you say have been drifting back against gold longer term, in a way tracking the broader market. So they are due for an upwards correction if they have been making a lot of profit. It's a sobering thought that after all this checking out of companies and following rigid rules, most of us would have been a lot better off with some gold bars, if purchased a few years ago.

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