TSK - TASK Group Holdings

[Baa_Baa]

Taking into account the shares still to be issued, and the forecast $10m ACMR, this illustrates the ACMR growth from Mar 2014 and potential SP upside using the 10x ACMR factor suggested as fair valuation. I'm loving this picture, if correct the SP is seriously undervalued right now and plenty of upside from here.

	ACMR	10x ACMR	ACMR +	Shares	SP
SP Now					$0.370
ACMR Mar 2014	$3,181,000	$31,810,000
ACMR Sep 2015	$4,800,000	$48,000,000		81,945,097	$0.586
SP Growth Upside					$0.216	58%
ACMR Forecast - next 6-9 months	$10,000,000	$100,000,000	214%	81,945,097	$1.220
SP Growth Upside					$0.850	230%

And an interesting article projecting Consumer IoT to be the third largest sector forecast worldwide spending from $US698.6 billion in 2015 to nearly $US1.3 trillion in 2019. http://www.computerworld.co.nz/artic.../?fp=16&fpid=1

VMob are right at the forefront of this and in the sweet spot.

disc: holding VML, amateur analysis, not advice, DYOR etc.

[mikeybycrikey]

To me the interim report looks no better or worse than I expected. Still a story in progress. There seems to be lots of excitement here around the forecast ACMR of $10 million in 6-9 months But what does this forecast even mean? I can see no details on where this might be coming from apart from increased "customer prospect discussions". Is this new clients? Existing clients? A Lotto win? It just feels to me like it's based on nothing more than hope although maybe it's more than that and there are deals in progress. "6-9 months" is a strangely vague yet specific timeframe.VML has been growing pretty quickly but that was from a very low base. $100k revenue to $1m revenue is easy, but how do they get to $10m and then higher? As usual, the money in the bank won't even last the 6-9 months until this pie-in-the-sky forecast comes true. Although they are still trying to raise more money to keep the lights on. Again.Disc: holding but treating it as a risky bet that might pay off or might go broke trying.

[Harvey Specter]

using the 10x ACMR factor suggested as fair valuation.

The multiple used is dependant on growth. Therefore if growth slows as they reach $100m ACMR, they you might bring that back a bit. I think the average for SaaS companies on the Nasdaq is about 6 but they are on average 'only' growing 40%pa. So ultimately the multiple should revert to about 6 but while they can keep revenue growth above 100%, then 10% seems fair.

* disclaimer - I am making all this up based on observations I have made. Revenue multiples are also crude as it is all about DCF - the problem with DCF and high growth companies is all the value is in the terminal value, not in the early years.

[Baa_Baa]

The multiple used is dependant on growth. Therefore if growth slows as they reach $100m ACMR, they you might bring that back a bit. I think the average for SaaS companies on the Nasdaq is about 6 but they are on average 'only' growing 40%pa. So ultimately the multiple should revert to about 6 but while they can keep revenue growth above 100%, then 10% seems fair.

* disclaimer - I am making all this up based on observations I have made. Revenue multiples are also crude as it is all about DCF - the problem with DCF and high growth companies is all the value is in the terminal value, not in the early years.

Good yardstick though Harvey, 10x seems fair considering they're projecting 214% growth for the current FY (6 months from HY) or to end June if 9 months from HY. I think there was an SaaS analysis posted on XRO at some stage that said high-growth is anything above 70% pa. Even if VMob growth pulls back from 214% it's still stellar. Even at 6x ACMR the SP has plenty of upside to the $10m ACMR projection.

[Baa_Baa]

To me the interim report looks no better or worse than I expected. Still a story in progress. There seems to be lots of excitement here around the forecast ACMR of $10 million in 6-9 months But what does this forecast even mean? I can see no details on where this might be coming from apart from increased "customer prospect discussions". Is this new clients? Existing clients? A Lotto win? It just feels to me like it's based on nothing more than hope although maybe it's more than that and there are deals in progress. "6-9 months" is a strangely vague yet specific timeframe.VML has been growing pretty quickly but that was from a very low base. $100k revenue to $1m revenue is easy, but how do they get to $10m and then higher? As usual, the money in the bank won't even last the 6-9 months until this pie-in-the-sky forecast comes true. Although they are still trying to raise more money to keep the lights on. Again.Disc: holding but treating it as a risky bet that might pay off or might go broke trying.

The HY said McD's USA rollout commence in Sept (I though it was earlier), so I'd expect the growth in ACMR / revenue to come from McD's USA and the new McD's signed up.

VMob also saying a number of clients in pilots, which are being extended .. these mainly in the IoT space. As they convert to implementations, plenty of growth potential, but as you say also risks.

I'm very happy that VMob actually gave us a projection (finally), until now they have been silent on forward prospects. So now we have a performance target, which is 214% growth from previous FY. Given their conservatism I would anticipate that the projected $10 ACMR is from signed contracts being rolled out, and not potential contracts or potential new customers.

jmo.

[Balance]

Anyone who does business with McD will tell you that they are hard to make any money out of. Very competitive process to win a contract.

Watch and learn.

[Cobber]

The multiple used is dependant on growth. Therefore if growth slows as they reach $100m ACMR, they you might bring that back a bit. I think the average for SaaS companies on the Nasdaq is about 6 but they are on average 'only' growing 40%pa. So ultimately the multiple should revert to about 6 but while they can keep revenue growth above 100%, then 10% seems fair.

* disclaimer - I am making all this up based on observations I have made. Revenue multiples are also crude as it is all about DCF - the problem with DCF and high growth companies is all the value is in the terminal value, not in the early years.

VML getting to $100m ACMR is a long, long, long way off, especially if they are aiming for $10m by September next year.

And the leading company in this space is NOT vMob.... its Urban Airship. (https://www.urbanairship.com/) who have funding to the tune of $76m including Peter Thiel.

[Zaphod]

Anyone who does business with McD will tell you that they are hard to make any money out of. Very competitive process to win a contract.

Watch and learn.

Definitely true - Progressive and Foodstuffs are equally as hard to earn a buck from. McD's are loyal only to the almighty dollar!

It is however a great customer to help raise your profile in the market.

[Harvey Specter]

VML getting to $100m ACMR is a long, long, long way off, especially if they are aiming for $10m by September next year.

oops - an extra zero by mistake. my point was the 10x multiple doesn't apply all the time, only when growth is high.

Plenty of room for more than 1 play in the market. We are talking about every retail and food chain being a target.

[Baa_Baa]

oops - an extra zero by mistake. my point was the 10x multiple doesn't apply all the time, only when growth is high.

Plenty of room for more than 1 play in the market. We are talking about every retail and food chain being a target.

Bear in mind also the repeated VMob marketing team references to hotels, hospitality and restaurants, for the service model we currently understand (mainly around mobile loyalty programmes). There are the broader IoT opportunities as well, monitoring, collecting, analysing and reporting on vast-data collected from any device that can join the analogue to digital. I suspect that the target market, particularly within Microsoft's enterprise level customer base is enormous and will broaden and unfold over the next few years, as IoT comes on stream.