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  1. #871
    Advanced Member robbo24's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Baa_Baa View Post
    Yes they did put their neck out, in Dec 2014
    There seems to be a correlation between Edison valuations and reality:

    NZX.SEA
    Edison says: 2.7
    Market says: 2

    NZX.PEB
    Edison says: 103
    Market says: 76

    NZX.VML
    Edison says: 3.8
    Market says: 2

    I could go on, but can't be bothered.

    Paper Tiger put his neck out too (particularly in his educational trading discussion) and seems a lot more reliable than Edison.

  2. #872
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    Yeah, there's a common theme there robbo, and common disdain for any analysts around here it seems, Edison included. The market also valued VML at ...

    $0.08 Sep 2012
    $0.05 Nov 2013
    $0.048 Jan 2014
    $0.009 Aug 2014
    $0.022 now

    The market is more reliable only because it is in the moment, it's what it costs now, not what it's valued at, or what it's value is to individual investors.

    Quote Originally Posted by robbo24 View Post
    There seems to be a correlation between Edison valuations and reality:

    NZX.SEA
    Edison says: 2.7
    Market says: 2

    NZX.PEB
    Edison says: 103
    Market says: 76

    NZX.VML
    Edison says: 3.8
    Market says: 2

    I could go on, but can't be bothered.

    Paper Tiger put his neck out too (particularly in his educational trading discussion) and seems a lot more reliable than Edison.
    Last edited by Baa_Baa; 20-04-2015 at 01:58 PM.

  3. #873
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    Quote Originally Posted by Baa_Baa View Post
    Yeah, there's a common theme there robbo, and common disdain for any analysts around here it seems, Edison included. The market also valued VML at ...

    $0.08 Sep 2012
    $0.05 Nov 2013
    $0.048 Jan 2014
    $0.009 Aug 2014
    $0.022 now

    The market is more reliable only because it is in the moment, it's what it costs now, not what it's valued at, or what it's value is to individual investors.
    That was the SP not what the market valued VML at. You would need to quote market cap at those dates given the capital raisings and other share/option allocations VML has made will have had a dilutionary effect.

  4. #874
    Advanced Member robbo24's Avatar
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    Looks great but perhaps you can finish the story by illustrating how many shares exist at the time of each of your "market valuations" below - the market doesn't value shares on their share price alone.

    As you will be aware, valuation is dependant on price and the number of shares that exist.

    So, as the share price has fluctuated, the number of shares has risen dramatically.

    Here's some links for you to start work on.

    2012
    GENERAL: VML: PROSPECTIVE CAPITAL RAISING INITIATIVES
    ALLOT: VML: Notice of Issue of Securities

    2013
    ALLOT: VML: ISSUE OF SECURITIES BY VMOB GROUP LIMITED (VML)
    GENERAL: VML: CAPITAL RAISING
    ALLOT: VML: ISSUE OF SECURITIES BY VMOB GROUP LIMITED (VML)
    ALLOT: VML: ISSUE OF SECURITIES BY VMOB GROUP LIMITED (VML)
    ALLOT: VML: Issue of Options
    ALLOT: VML: ISSUE OF SECURITIES BY VMOB GROUP LIMITED (VML)
    ALLOT: VML: ISSUE OF SECURITIES BY VMOB GROUP LIMITED (VML)
    CAPREC: VML: VML Capital Raising
    ALLOT: VML: Issue of Securities by VMob Group Limited (VML)
    ALLOT: VML: Issue of Securities on Exercise of Options
    S/HOLDER: VML: VML Share Purchase Plan
    S/HOLDER: VML: Share Purchase Plan
    S/HOLDER: VML: Share Purchase Plan

    2014
    ALLOT: VML: Issue of Securities By VMob Group Limited
    ALLOT: VML: Issue of Securities by VMob Group Limited
    ALLOT: VML: Issue of Securities by VMob Group Limited
    ALLOT: VML: Issue of Securities by Vmob Group Limited (VML)
    GENERAL: VML: Issue of Securities by VMob Group Limited (VML)
    GENERAL: VML: Issue of Securities by VMob Group Limited (VML)
    PLACE: VML: VMob Group: Private Placement of Ordinary Shares

    2015
    Placement completed
    THEN, announcement of further capital raising by pre-IPO and IPO

    So, with all these new shares coming on it's a wonder the MCAP ever actually changes.


    Quote Originally Posted by Baa_Baa View Post
    Yeah, there's a common theme there orb, and common disdain for any analysts around here it seems, Edison included. The market also valued VML at ...

    $0.08 Sep 2012
    $0.05 Nov 2013
    $0.048 Jan 2014
    $0.009 Aug 2014
    $0.022 now

    The market is more reliable only because it is in the moment, it's what it costs now, not what it's valued at, or what it's value is to individual investors.

  5. #875
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    For someone who could go on but can't be bothered, and implied that the market price is the valuation (below), you're putting a lot of effort into agreeing to agree - I think we all get it. The SP is not the value. But, thanks for that helpful summary of cap raisings, it's a useful addition to the list of research here, nicely hyperlinked as well.

    Quote Originally Posted by robbo24 View Post
    There seems to be a correlation between Edison valuations and reality:

    NZX.SEA
    Edison says: 2.7
    Market says: 2

    NZX.PEB
    Edison says: 103
    Market says: 76

    NZX.VML
    Edison says: 3.8
    Market says: 2

    I could go on, but can't be bothered.

    Paper Tiger put his neck out too (particularly in his educational trading discussion) and seems a lot more reliable than Edison.

  6. #876
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    Sorry robbo my stupid spell checker keeps calling you orb. No offence meant.

  7. #877
    Advanced Member robbo24's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Baa_Baa View Post
    For someone who could go on but can't be bothered, and implied that the market price is the valuation (below), you're putting a lot of effort into agreeing to agree - I think we all get it. The SP is not the value. But, thanks for that helpful summary of cap raisings, it's a useful addition to the list of research here, nicely hyperlinked as well.
    The share price at the date of the relevant Edison reports refers to the number of shares and gives a DCF valuation. All of the information is available at the specified date by perusing the relevant Edison report. This is reasonably obvious.

    The share price as at the dates of your post does not provide the number of shares in existence at the relevant date. Your post is reasonably misleading because one cannot derive the mcap from that information.

    Thankfully I have extended the olive branch by linking you to the many issuances/capital raising announcements so you can update your information.

  8. #878
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    I've just run a few figures based on information based on the VMob investor presentations. The key metrics are over 30,000 McDonalds in the top 22 countries ( include Sweden and Netherlands at 21 and 22). Let's assume the roll out of McDonalds in restricted initially to those 22 countries.. We also understand from the presentations there is an income stream of $25 to $50 per month per store. That is potentially an income of between $10 and $20 pa right there. I have tried to work out how many downloads happen. I calculate that there could be around 5000 downloads per stor. Netherlands and sweden were 10% of population. The number for the main income streams do just about overload the calculator.
    maybe the revenue per month from McDonald's alone could be circa $2m when the top 22 countries have been rolled out.

    yes I know it is a maybe, but even when 10% of those who have downloaded the app use their VMob-McDonalds voucher and get a push notification then the numbers are staggering.

    McDonalds have circa 65m customers per day
    2.1% of McDonalds customers use a voucher at least one time per month.
    Globally that would be 40m vouchers used per month
    if only a quarter of those vouchers are from the VMob platform that is 10m vouchers per month. That is a revenue stream of $1m a month right there.

    The Redemption rate on VMob vouchers could be higher because the vouchers are relevant, personalised, convenient and timely.

    maybe robbo will come along and talk down my numbers, but this is a company with a capitalisation of $30m. I do believe the global McDonalds contract when rolled out could be worth $24m per annum based on the snipets of information that are available. Maybe more.

    is the Edison report due for a significant update?

  9. #879
    Reincarnated Panthera Snow Leopard's Avatar
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    Question What does the D stand for

    Quote Originally Posted by Wallace D View Post
    Just locking this one in for future reference…..so you claim as the 'Oracle' around here and with all your 'knowledge' that this company is only worth about $14mn and that it's not even worth the $29mn the market currently values it at?

    Very interesting………time will tell?
    NO.

    Among the many claims I have made around here I am pretty confident that I have never claimed to be the 'Oracle' or even a 'Oracle' and as far as I am aware no one else, apart from yourself, as ever made that claim on my behalf, in fun, in sarcasm or even because they think I am worthy of such a title .

    With all of my 'knowledge' I can tell the difference between value and price, a simple rookie mistake you and others are making on this thread.

    As for a valuation for VML as I actually said before: somewhere between Nothing and A Lot.

    There is just far too much uncertainty at the moment for me to come up with a meaningful valuation range.


    Best Wishes
    Paper Tiger
    Last edited by Snow Leopard; 20-04-2015 at 05:09 PM. Reason: colon trouble
    om mani peme hum

  10. #880
    Reincarnated Panthera Snow Leopard's Avatar
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    Thumbs up Never pay list price for you private jet

    Quote Originally Posted by Monty View Post
    I've just run a few figures based on information based on the VMob investor presentations. The key metrics are over 30,000 McDonalds in the top 22 countries ( include Sweden and Netherlands at 21 and 22). Let's assume the roll out of McDonalds in restricted initially to those 22 countries.. We also understand from the presentations there is an income stream of $25 to $50 per month per store. That is potentially an income of between $10 and $20 pa right there. I have tried to work out how many downloads happen. I calculate that there could be around 5000 downloads per stor. Netherlands and sweden were 10% of population. The number for the main income streams do just about overload the calculator.
    maybe the revenue per month from McDonald's alone could be circa $2m when the top 22 countries have been rolled out.

    yes I know it is a maybe, but even when 10% of those who have downloaded the app use their VMob-McDonalds voucher and get a push notification then the numbers are staggering.

    McDonalds have circa 65m customers per day
    2.1% of McDonalds customers use a voucher at least one time per month.
    Globally that would be 40m vouchers used per month
    if only a quarter of those vouchers are from the VMob platform that is 10m vouchers per month. That is a revenue stream of $1m a month right there.

    The Redemption rate on VMob vouchers could be higher because the vouchers are relevant, personalised, convenient and timely.

    maybe robbo will come along and talk down my numbers, but this is a company with a capitalisation of $30m. I do believe the global McDonalds contract when rolled out could be worth $24m per annum based on the snipets of information that are available. Maybe more.

    is the Edison report due for a significant update?
    Can I just point out that the $25-$50 Licence per store and $0.10 redemption fee appear to be alternative pricing strategies from my reading of the presentations.

    And as I said before I am confident that McDonalds have negotiated a custom deal.

    Also of more importance than the revenue itself is the gross profit margin.

    Best Wishes
    Paper Tiger
    om mani peme hum

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