TSK - TASK Group Holdings

**Baa_Baa** · 14-04-2016, 06:12 PM

Originally Posted by sommelier

http://www.vmob.com/investors/VMob-I...R3K1wvK3UwPSJ9

So now we know about Compass Group as well. Cunning plan, try out the tech with Microsoft canteens. Shows the power of leverage MS can bring, in a simple but clever way.

That's about the sum of the new info after the investor updates yesterday, except the quality of the promo's have improved and there's a lot more media coverage, some of which even I haven't seen! ... lol

To @Mikey's point about ACMR reporting. Agree, it would be nice, to get a feel for whether it's on track, but they say it is, so they'll be rewarded when it is, or not as the case may be. Only a few weeks now until FY reporting in May, so we'll have a good gauge of ACMR growth from HY to FY and the gap to the $10m Sept guidance.

(which by the way is within the timeframe of 6-9 months previously stated, despite a previous post here suggesting it's not.)

Patience .. easy to say, hard to do.

**Baa_Baa** · 28-04-2016, 09:27 PM

Unsurprisingly the resolution to tidy up the rights to issue shares from the NZAX rules were passed https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/234412.pdf paving the way for the CR to be completed.

I suspect that the investors in the CR are already lined up judging by the clarity of being limited to "wholesale investors in New Zealand and sophisticated investors in Australia". Just a hunch. So that would mean a completed CR notice fairly soon and .40 base price locked in. Encouragingly it seems the market already knows this as well with .40 or thereabouts holding on the open market.

EOY results are due shortly in May, they should show a decent upside in ACMR on the path to the guidance of $10m, now clarified (though previously ambiguous) as "by Sept'16". That's pretty impressive on the face of it, from nothing in 2013 (startup), to a smidge in 2014 (still startup), then the tap turns on in 2015 (growth) and hopefully the fire hose opens up in 2016 (hi-growth). On the neg side, they wouldn't be CR'ing now, or forecasting another CR this year if the result was going to be cash positive, so costs still growing in proportion to ACMR and revenue. What we should focus on imo is whether that ratio of costs to ACMR/Revenue is reducing.

As an investor / accumulator, this is taking a bit longer than I'd optimistically hoped for, however the future seems very bright as McD's continues to progress to complete the global rollout, 7-Eleven Aus gets runs on the board with massive opportunity (7-11 and Mobil/Esso/Exxon potential following), and the pilots move to production rollouts .. IKEA stores the largest furniture retailer globally, Compass the enormous catering supplier, Anhauser Busch the beer capital of the world(!), and currently un-named 'other' customers ACMR "coming from a small number of new deals that are currently in the sales pipeline."

VMob's "small number of new deals" (nicely understated) has typically been characterised by being a 'few unimaginably large global brands'. I think the MS relationship is only just starting to bring in the sales leads and the deals, as the VMob sales structure and focus moves to supporting this Microsoft global marketing/sales capability.

I'm still an excited shareholder, I reckon VMob will be one of the few standout NZ tech plays of this decade and the next, not just because they have great product, but because they nailed the market timing, with big tech backing, and most importantly in a global market that literally dwarfs everything else. And they're already positioned for the next wave of IOT big data analytics. This is hard to explain for those who don't follow emerging tech and the markets they're targeting.

A few grand invested here in VML could well create the next 'accidental millionaires' that NZ tech companies seem to be increasingly able do for their dedicated shareholders.

jmho as always, gltah
BAA

**Joshuatree** · 28-04-2016, 10:29 PM

Thanks for the summary BB.Havnt looked for ages but i will now.

**Schrodinger** · 29-04-2016, 07:16 AM

What's your thoughts on valuation? If they hit $10m acmr in Sept then it should be around $100m. Based on current market cap they are undervalued. Looking accross at PPay theirs is $500m on similar numbers?

I also think they stated their burn was approx $10m year so this could be generating cash in 2 years time. Macca's is preparing to fully leverage the platform so this will lift the valuation substantially. No reason why the current cap is not $50m+ including capital raises as this will be factored into valuation.

**Harvey Specter** · 29-04-2016, 11:06 AM

Originally Posted by Schrodinger

What's your thoughts on valuation? If they hit $10m acmr in Sept then it should be around $100m.

SaaS multiples are down to around 5 at the moment so $50m. Still above current market value and they are in the growth stage so potentially should be higher, but counter that with execution risk that they still have.

**Schrodinger** · 29-04-2016, 11:20 AM

So for PAY ACMR $29x10=$290m or $29x5=$145m - somewhere in between.

Current Cap is $500m so their multiple is 17 times which is BS. Either way VMob is massively undervalued.

**axe** · 29-04-2016, 11:59 AM

Originally Posted by Schrodinger

So for PAY ACMR $29x10=$290m or $29x5=$145m - somewhere in between.

Current Cap is $500m so their multiple is 17 times which is BS. Either way VMob is massively undervalued.

If VMOB so undervalued @ 40c - why are they raising capital @ 40c?

**Harvey Specter** · 29-04-2016, 12:18 PM

Originally Posted by Schrodinger

So for PAY ACMR $29x10=$290m or $29x5=$145m - somewhere in between.

Current Cap is $500m so their multiple is 17 times which is BS. Either way VMob is massively undervalued.

PAY is on a very high growth tradjectory.

Forecast ACMR of $100x5 = $500. Not sure why people are fully valuing it at that given that is a few years out and not certain. Maybe that is why the price has come back.