TSK - TASK Group Holdings

[Schrodinger]

They appear to be doing everything right (except building significant revenue - still only $500k!)

Edit: Cash burn means they will need to capital raise within 6 months!

Did you see their latest ARR estimation in the Oct deck? They should hit at least $1.5m rev for 2015.I would expect the Japan launch to contribute.

Still trying to forecast this out as the ARR they were quoting was north of $5m

[Harvey Specter]

Per half year accounts, Annualised committed monthly revenue is only $415k which is less than their 6 month operating revenue ($502k) so they must still get a significant part of their income from set up.

But as you say, per their October update (https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/201783.pdf) just 7 days after the period the half year accounts are reflecting, Annualised committed monthly revenue has jumped to $2.12m. the difference must be the McDonalds contract which, even though signed and announced prior to end of september, they cant have been able to include in their September accounts.

[Baa_Baa]

Per half year accounts, Annualised committed monthly revenue is only $415k which is less than their 6 month operating revenue ($502k) so they must still get a significant part of their income from set up.

But as you say, per their October update (https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/201783.pdf) just 7 days after the period the half year accounts are reflecting, Annualised committed monthly revenue has jumped to $2.12m. the difference must be the McDonalds contract which, even though signed and announced prior to end of september, they cant have been able to include in their September accounts.

Ironically the November 1H report (Mar - Sept) is marked on NZX as 'price sensitive' while the 7th October market update was not, despite announcing the McDonalds Japan contract and ACM revenue jump to $2.12m -up over 1000%.

Disc: Accumulating

Attachment 6557

[Harvey Specter]

For what its worth, Edison value at 3.8c : http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch....214outlook.pdf

WACC looks low at 11%
Capital raise of $6m required at FY15 H2. Though if they can sign another big customer, that may not be required.

The key for them (and most companies) is they need to sign up new clients. Given they have a long led time, lets hope they are getting close to signing a few already.

[Baa_Baa]

For what its worth, Edison value at 3.8c : http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch....214outlook.pdf

WACC looks low at 11%
Capital raise of $6m required at FY15 H2. Though if they can sign another big customer, that may not be required.

The key for them (and most companies) is they need to sign up new clients. Given they have a long led time, lets hope they are getting close to signing a few already.

Thanks Harvey, a good informative read.

[mikeybycrikey]

For what its worth, Edison value at 3.8c : http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch....214outlook.pdf

WACC looks low at 11%
Capital raise of $6m required at FY15 H2. Though if they can sign another big customer, that may not be required.

The key for them (and most companies) is they need to sign up new clients. Given they have a long led time, lets hope they are getting close to signing a few already.

It should be noted that this is research commissioned by VMob and released by VMob so it's obviously going to paint them in a good light.

It's an interesting read but it would also pay to DYOR.

[Harvey Specter]

It should be noted that this is research commissioned by VMob and released by VMob so it's obviously going to paint them in a good light.

True but Edison have a reputation to maintain. Same could be said for S&P ratings.

NOte that Edison have won the contract to provide research on all stocks on the new NXT exchange once it is up and running which will be worth much more than any single company can provide so maintaining their reputation is important.

Having said that, the market seems to have ignored them.

[mikeybycrikey]

True but Edison have a reputation to maintain. Same could be said for S&P ratings.

NOte that Edison have won the contract to provide research on all stocks on the new NXT exchange once it is up and running which will be worth much more than any single company can provide so maintaining their reputation is important.

Having said that, the market seems to have ignored them.

True, although considering that S&P ratings were gamed during in the lead-up to the GFC maybe it's not the best example of integrity.

I'm sure that Edison have done a thorough investigation of the company but for large parts of the document it feels more like an advertisement for VMob than a research paper. Although to be fair to Edison, it's useful for them to include a thorough description of what the company does.

VMob are certainly an interesting company. I'm considering sinking some money into them at the moment. Still not sure about it: it's obviously pretty risky.

[Harvey Specter]

I'm sure that Edison have done a thorough investigation of the company but for large parts of the document it feels more like an advertisement for VMob than a research paper. Although to be fair to Edison, it's useful for them to include a thorough description of what the company does.

I'm sure they just cut and paste the boring bits (background, bio's etc) and spend their time on the important parts.

Even if you discount their price by 50%, it is still good buying now. Having said that, just wait for the expected capital raise which will probably push the price down again.

Disc: I bought (small) at the last capital raising so am sitting on a big loss. I think they are worth more than 1c but they need more sales to put any confidence in that.

[BFG]

Just look at the ratings and broker sentiment on AMZN on the NYSE to see the insanity which these guys predicate.

Tons of "Buys", "Outperforms" or "Holds" but no "Underperforms" or "Sells". This was when AMZN had a PE in the 1000s. It's now making huge losses which are only goung to get worse by their own reckoning next quarter. Ummm, did anyone forget to the tell the brokers that somehow?

In the world of reporting/estimates, Edison is rated slightly higher than Moaningstar. All ypu have to do is look at the whacked out range of estimates on PEB they put out, SNK being nowhere near what they are calling and upgrading LNG.AX from $1.10 to $1.40 after the price had gone soaring above $3.00. Call something on a ling enough timeline and you'll eventually get it right eh?!?!