TSK - TASK Group Holdings

[Cobber]

zs_cecil - Management doens't need $50M to roll out to more McDonald's stores - PLX is profitable. They've stated this is to pursue growth/acquisitions. As for your point about SuperIndo if you wait for the cash to flow in it could be 10years before PLX has their software in all of Ahold Delhaize's (they "own" SuperIndo) supermarkets. Moving faster blocks competitors from entering the market.

Brain - I completely agree; however, some form of valuation has to be done. I've done both a DCF and a comparables and they both look great.

forest - I think you need to re-read my comment. You can have your cake and eat it too but only if PLX lists on the ASX. You're assuming NZ holders don't get to participate in the SPP/float. My understanding is management has said they will. My opinion is that if it lists on the ASX it will re-rate much higher than it's currently trading meaning LESS shares will be issued, resulting in LESS dilution. Again, I've looked at over 250 ASX small and micro caps and I have never seen a company with such a strong history of positively trending cashflow, revenue growth, ROIC, ROE, profit etc etc - I don't see them because they don't stay small caps on the ASX. Dalziel and Herbison have really turned this company around since the departure of Scott Bradley.

forest, if you're worried about a capital raise I suggest looking into ASX:NVX. They needed to raise $58.28M so they did a prorata 1:1 entitlement offer at $0.29 on May 29th. The share price at the time was $0.435. Keep in mind this was an ENTITLEMENT offer not a SPP (there's a big difference). I can't comment on how PLX is going to structure theirs; however, it would not surprise me if it's not a similar format given they have a specific $ they are aiming to raise.

Getty - With regards to my DCF see below. I'm no expert in DCFs so please take with a grain of salt; however, these are in line with my ASX comparables valuation. $4.38 is based on a 45% revenue growth over the next 5 years and is post raising $50M (ie post dilution). Base case (25% growth) is $2.02, Bull case (55% growth) is $6.08.

I'm going to stop commenting as I don't want to give the impression I'm ramping. But please don't follow along the NZSA without coming to your own conclusion based on the facts.

Assumptions
Tax Rate		27.5%
Discount Rate		12%
Perpetual Growth Rate		4%
EV/EBITDA Mulltiple		8.0x
Transaction Date		22/08/2020
Fiscal Year End		31/03/2021
Current Price		1.41
Shares Outstanding		140,380,000
Capital raised from ASX IPO		50,000,000
Investment Bank IPO Fee		2.00%
Shares issued for ASX IPO		35460992.91
Shares Outstanding Post IPO		175,840,993
Discounted Cash Flow			Entry	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	Exit		Terminal Value
Date			22/08/2020	31/03/2021	31/03/2022	31/03/2023	31/03/2024	31/03/2025	31/03/2026	31/03/2026		EV/EBITDA		996,158
Time periods				1	2	3	4	5	6			Perp. Growth		1,143,655
Year frac				0.61	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00		Average		1,069,906
EBIT				4,643	25,785	37,837	55,435	81,233	118,949
Less: Cash Taxes				1277	7091	10405	15244	22339	32711
NOPAT				3,366	18,694	27,432	40,190	58,894	86,238
Plus: D&A				930	1,249	1,998	2,936	4,107	5,571
EBITDA				5,573	27,034	39,835	58,370	85,340	124,520
Less: Capex				1,000	1,000	1,000	1,000	1,000	1,000
Less: Changes in NWC				5,444	(11,932)	930	1,349	1,955	2,835
Unlevered FCFF				(2,148)	30,875	27,500	40,777	60,046	87,973	1,069,906
Transaction FCFF			0	(1,307)	30,875	27,500	40,777	60,046	87,973	1,069,906
IRR FCFF			(197,922,219)	(1,307)	30,875	27,500	40,777	60,046	87,973	1,069,906
Intrinsic Value				Market Value				Rate of Return
Enterprise Value		720,948,122		Market Cap		197935800		Current Price		$1.41
Plus: Cash		13,581		Plus: Debt		0		Target Price		$5.14
Less: Debt		0		Less: Cash		13,581		TP Upside		264.24%
Equity Value		720,961,703		Enterprise Value		197,922,219		IRR		-51%
Equity Value/Share		$5.14		Equity Value/Share		1.41
Post ASX IPO
Equity Value		769,961,703
Equity Value/Share		$4.38

I stopped at 45% revenue growth over 5 years. They only did about 1/3 of that in the last quarter.

[mfd]

I stopped at 45% revenue growth over 5 years. They only did about 1/3 of that in the last quarter.

I'm not too surprised that growth slowed down in a quarter covering the worst of the Covid lockdowns, given the job of the company is to get people to physical stores. We know they are aiming for their compensation to be more transaction based, and it's reasonable to assume transactions were lower than normal that month.

[Getty]

CanadianAussie,
Please do not feel inhibited about posting what you like on here.

In particular, spread sheet type posts like yours.
There are some very good forensic accountants on here who will gladly run their stethoscope over it, and provide insightful analysis.
Everyone benefits, including you.

The worst thing that can happen, is that uninterested people wont read a post.

Dr JPG.

Public Health Safety Warning.
Due to Covid, if you're COUGHIN', prepare your COFFIN, ready to carry you OFF IN.
BY Order
Jacinda.

[Cobber]

I'm not too surprised that growth slowed down in a quarter covering the worst of the Covid lockdowns, given the job of the company is to get people to physical stores. We know they are aiming for their compensation to be more transaction based, and it's reasonable to assume transactions were lower than normal that month.

So that means if they are to make 45% growth for year 1, they are going to need to do a couple of quarters at 60% growth. Based on second waves of covid globally.... it isn't going to happen.

I think CanadianAussie did a great chart, but they also said they were bullish.

What does that chart look like at 20% growth for 5 years?

If you don't want to be seen to be ramping the stock, you did need to have a worst vs best case scenario's.

[Chuckles]

I hold a good parcel of PLX in the portfolio and support the listing on the ASX. Good for the SP and the growth of the company.

[yuj4]

This might be my first post on this forum and I have always been reading post with the past 7 years and learnt a lot from people here like balance, leftfield etc.

List on ASX helps to speed up the growth strategy and it brings more attention. it also helps to attract more institution and fund manager's support and build solid foundation for plexure. (I will definitely support $50 million plexure ASX pre-IPO)

I have been doing lots of research for similar companies like plexure such as OLO (targeting small restaurants and hotels) and toast in the states. (OLO recently partnered with google is also looking for pre-IPO this year valuing the company for 1 billion US dollars)

OLO is targeting 40 times revenue for its pre-IPO last time I did research.

If you look into those two companies and you found their targeting customers are restaurants but not QSR or Groceries where plexure has more customer concentration but darn good customers.

Comparing with other growth companies, plexure is still cheap, and fewer competitors in QSR sector. Plexure is trying to crack into the grocery mobile marketing field similar fundamental how it got Mccas onboard. Ahold Delhaize might be the target behind the scene for plexure not super indo if anyone is interested in reading below.

At the end of the day, investing is about having faith in the company and I hope the ASX can come true to bring more sophisticated investors on board.



Established in 1997, Super Indo has over 170 stores located across Indonesia, Super Indo is majority owned by Ahold Delhaize, which has a 51 per cent stake in the company. Ahold Delhaize is one of the world’s largest grocery retailers and a global leader in e-commerce. It operates more than 6,500 stores across the United States, Europe and Indonesia, and serves more than 50 million shoppers each week.

[Chuckles]

This might be my first post on this forum and I have always been reading post with the past 7 years and learnt a lot from people here like balance, leftfield etc.

List on ASX helps to speed up the growth strategy and it brings more attention. it also helps to attract more institution and fund manager's support and build solid foundation for plexure. (I will definitely support $50 million plexure ASX pre-IPO)

I have been doing lots of research for similar companies like plexure such as OLO (targeting small restaurants and hotels) and toast in the states. (OLO recently partnered with google is also looking for pre-IPO this year valuing the company for 1 billion US dollars)

OLO is targeting 40 times revenue for its pre-IPO last time I did research.

If you look into those two companies and you found their targeting customers are restaurants but not QSR or Groceries where plexure has more customer concentration but darn good customers.

Comparing with other growth companies, plexure is still cheap, and fewer competitors in QSR sector. Plexure is trying to crack into the grocery mobile marketing field similar fundamental how it got Mccas onboard. Ahold Delhaize might be the target behind the scene for plexure not super indo if anyone is interested in reading below.

At the end of the day, investing is about having faith in the company and I hope the ASX can come true to bring more sophisticated investors on board.



Established in 1997, Super Indo has over 170 stores located across Indonesia, Super Indo is majority owned by Ahold Delhaize, which has a 51 per cent stake in the company. Ahold Delhaize is one of the world’s largest grocery retailers and a global leader in e-commerce. It operates more than 6,500 stores across the United States, Europe and Indonesia, and serves more than 50 million shoppers each week.

Completely agree with you Yuj4. PLX looks good, reads good and makes up part of my speculative group in the portfolio. Completely overlooked ABA once I had sold at $3.43, those that bought and held after March will be having a good day

[Brain]

CanadianAussie,
Please do not feel inhibited about posting what you like on here.

In particular, spread sheet type posts like yours.
There are some very good forensic accountants on here who will gladly run their stethoscope over it, and provide insightful analysis.
Everyone benefits, including you.

The worst thing that can happen, is that uninterested people wont read a post.

Dr JPG.

Public Health Safety Warning.
Due to Covid, if you're COUGHIN', prepare your COFFIN, ready to carry you OFF IN.
BY Order
Jacinda.

I totally agree with that John Paul Getty. It is great that CanadianAussie Has posted his views on Plexure. Good to see some optimism and
forces me to give some more thought to the share.

[Hello123]

Lots of sellers unloading it seems market sentiment for this weeks presentation is quite weak, Confidence low in what will be revealed?

[CamNZ]

Lots of sellers unloading it seems market sentiment for this weeks presentation is quite weak, Confidence low in what will be revealed?

Just noticed Plexure updated their website. Lots of new information on there if you guys haven't taken a look at it yet!