TSK - TASK Group Holdings

[sb9]

Have to laugh at the degree of negativity on this thread. They have enough cash to support at least 4-5 years of cash burn. Imagine if in the next 12 months they just sign 2 new customers from the several they hope to come to fruition and revenue for FY22 is maybe $32-35m and the loss back down to maybe $2-3m....what will the punters think then...FY23 might be $40m revenue and breakeven again but with a growing business.

At 65cps the enterprise value of this business is only NZ$70m....seems like reasonable value to me if you think they can actually grow the business. Six months of disappointment does not mean they are a dead dog.

Well said, looks like a lot of nerves nellies out there. It takes a while to go through full RFP process with any potential new customers and once things are in place there could be flurry of new sign ups. And remember it was pretty tough year last year and things are still pretty scary in some parts of the world.

[porkandpuha]

Just wondering whether their presentation might be a bit disingenuous? They present across their slides lots of good and healthy looking slim young people. Wondering whether they borrowed the models from HLG? Wouldn't it be their ultimate business goal to turn all of them into a bunch of obese fatties? - I guess how else would you increase the turnover of any of their junk food producing customers? "Do you want an extra large portion of fatty fries and a bottomless sweet coke with that?".

I also noticed how pretty all the people were...

[777]

Well if you are a buyer, and have read all the doom on this thread this morning, then you would be holding off for a lower entry.

[Checkmate]

Well said, looks like a lot of nerves nellies out there. It takes a while to go through full RFP process with any potential new customers and once things are in place there could be flurry of new sign ups. And remember it was pretty tough year last year and things are still pretty scary in some parts of the world.

I agree, I see the light in the end of the tunnel, I was being short sighted earlier, I’m holding and not giving a **** for at least the next 3-5 years. The chances (not the hope) of signing a couple of big customers in that time are huge. Also they are increasing revenue just on their existing clients as we speak. They just need to do their job well and all will be fine in the long term.

[BlackPeter]

Have to laugh at the degree of negativity on this thread. They have enough cash to support at least 4-5 years of cash burn. Imagine if in the next 12 months they just sign 2 new customers from the several they hope to come to fruition and revenue for FY22 is maybe $32-35m and the loss back down to maybe $2-3m....what will the punters think then...FY23 might be $40m revenue and breakeven again but with a growing business.

At 65cps the enterprise value of this business is only NZ$70m....seems like reasonable value to me if you think they can actually grow the business. Six months of disappointment does not mean they are a dead dog.

You are right - they might hit next month or next year or next decade the jackpot and everything will be well.

Unfortunately - the odds are not in favor of holders. While there are spectacular examples of startups who generated at some stage lots of value - it is overall only 4% of all companies who manage to increase shareholder funds on a long term basis (and this is from an US survey, I think internationally the number is still smaller), while 80% of all startups tend to bite the dust sooner or later.

Plexure (and however they have been called before) is now loss making for a long time (but the 2020 exception) and only surviving thanks to shareholders regularly drip feeding new capital.

What makes you think that Plexure is one of the lucky four out of hundred who will thrive?

Anyway - good luck to holders.

[Rawz]

Revenue increased. Not all bad. Trading 3.7x sales. For a tech company that is cheap.

All it is going to take is a couple of new customer signings and it will be trading back over $1 buck. Did I read that they were confident that some in the pipeline would be finalized?

As pointed out above they have enough cash on hand to see through a few more years. I am confident that a few customers will be signed up in this period.

Unfortunately I am sitting on a loss with these but I don't see any point in bailing now as nothing has really changed.

[Arbroath]

"What makes you think that Plexure is one of the lucky four out of hundred who will thrive?"

One can never be certain of anything in the investment world, having said that, a few things suggest Plexure can be in that 4%:

- have been alive now for over a decade and have a real product with customers and revenues.
- basically a $30m revenue business now
- $42m of cash to fund development plans so about 4-5 years cash = no need to raise capital and time to execute on their plans.
- McDonalds own 10%...immaterial to McDs but they are not mugs and wouldn't have bothered unless they saw real potential

The main concern that would probably put them in the 96% of startups that fail would be if McDonalds ditched them and they couldn't recover. The likely outcome then would be scaling down in a hurry, burning cash, and then morphing into a different business (reverse takover) with the shares being worth a few cents etc.

[Balance]

As I wrote a while ago, the McDonalds' deal imo is a cash & profit bleeder and everything which has transpired since affirms in my mind that the deal is indeed a bleeder.

The deal has given PX1 credibility but the credibility gained was a double edged sword - the negative being that PX1 is locked out of marketing & offering its services to other fast food companies (save White Castle which was presumably WIP at that time).

PX1 must use the credibility to land more deals (outside of the fast food industry) to scale up but so far, I can only see staff numbers and costs increasing (as I expected) to service the McDonalds contract without any additional contracts being won?

So looks like it is still a case of waiting (or hoping) for PX1 to land a few more highly profitable contracts outside of McDonalds & the fast food industry. What are the chances given the promises made of new contracts last year (when PX1 was raising funds) and the company is now not giving guidance for the year ahead?

[Beagle]

"What makes you think that Plexure is one of the lucky four out of hundred who will thrive?"

One can never be certain of anything in the investment world, having said that, a few things suggest Plexure can be in that 4%:

- have been alive now for over a decade and have a real product with customers and revenues.
- basically a $30m revenue business now
- $42m of cash to fund development plans so about 4-5 years cash = no need to raise capital and time to execute on their plans.
- McDonalds own 10%...immaterial to McDs but they are not mugs and wouldn't have bothered unless they saw real potential

The main concern that would probably put them in the 96% of startups that fail would be if McDonalds ditched them and they couldn't recover. The likely outcome then would be scaling down in a hurry, burning cash, and then morphing into a different business (reverse takover) with the shares being worth a few cents etc.

Revenue up just 15% but expenses up ~ 50%. Hmmm

[mfd]

Revenue up just 15% but expenses up ~ 50%. Hmmm

Not a surprise, the whole point of the cap raise was to give them money to invest. I'd be very confused if expenses didn't increase significantly.

I must admit, I'm a little disappointed by the limited mention of super indo in the results. They confirm McDonalds is still 94% of their revenue, I was hoping super indo would become more sizeable and expand into sister companies in other markets but no commentary on this. Most only be earning a million or two from them at the moment.