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  1. #5211
    percy
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    True, but this advise only works for people who have an open mind and are still prepared to listen to other noises than the shouting coming from their own echo-chamber ; Quite difficult for some under the influence of the endowment effect.

    If posters start with personal attacks and name calling, then this is typically the time you know their stock is going down and their minds are closed. Great opportunity to learn about human behavior. The question is just - do we really need so many examples to learn from? Some people just don't seem to get the lesson ...
    I have come under pressure from other posters a number of times.What I do is walk away from the site and redo my research.I start by rereading all the company's announcements for the past three years.Areas I look out for are;
    1]Do current assets exceed current liabilities.If not does the business have enough "spare" capital to see it through the next two years.
    2]Does the company carry too much debt.
    3]Is the sector the company the business is in growing.
    4]Do directors and staff hold a good number of shares.
    5]Is the company paying directors and CEO too much.
    6]Has the company issued directors and staff too many unlisted soft options,which will delute eps.
    7] Are the directors honest,ie admit issues facing the company.
    8] Perhaps the most important.Does the company do what they say they will do.
    Following the above and ignoring "the noise" means I have made good judgements.

  2. #5212
    percy
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    True, but this advise only works for people who have an open mind and are still prepared to listen to other noises than the shouting coming from their own echo-chamber ; Quite difficult for some under the influence of the endowment effect.

    If posters start with personal attacks and name calling, then this is typically the time you know their stock is going down and their minds are closed. Great opportunity to learn about human behavior. The question is just - do we really need so many examples to learn from? Some people just don't seem to get the lesson ...
    I have come under pressure from other posters a number of times.What I do is walk away from the site and redo my research.I start by rereading all the company's announcements for the past three years.Areas I look out for are;
    1]Do current assets exceed current liabilities.If not does the business have enough "spare" capital to see it through the next two years.
    2]Does the company carry too much debt.
    3]Is the sector the company the business is in growing.
    4]Do directors and staff hold a good number of shares.
    5]Is the company paying directors and CEO too much.
    6]Has the company issued directors and staff too many unlisted soft options,which will delute eps.
    7] Are the directors honest,ie admit issues facing the company.
    8] Perhaps the most important.Does the company do what they say they will do.
    Following the above and ignoring "the noise" means I have made good judgements.

  3. #5213
    Guru Rawz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    I have come under pressure from other posters a number of times.What I do is walk away from the site and redo my research.I start by rereading all the company's announcements for the past three years.Areas I look out for are;
    1]Do current assets exceed current liabilities.If not does the business have enough "spare" capital to see it through the next two years.
    2]Does the company carry too much debt.
    3]Is the sector the company the business is in growing.
    4]Do directors and staff hold a good number of shares.
    5]Is the company paying directors and CEO too much.
    6]Has the company issued directors and staff too many unlisted soft options,which will delute eps.
    7] Are the directors honest,ie admit issues facing the company.
    8] Perhaps the most important.Does the company do what they say they will do.
    Following the above and ignoring "the noise" means I have made good judgements.
    That's a really good checklist, Percy. I agree the most important is number 8!! For me that is the true measure of whether or not management really understand their business and the market they operate in. TRA and MHJ spring to mind of some good examples. ATM and BLT for some bad examples.

  4. #5214
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    I have come under pressure from other posters a number of times.What I do is walk away from the site and redo my research.I start by rereading all the company's announcements for the past three years.Areas I look out for are;
    1]Do current assets exceed current liabilities.If not does the business have enough "spare" capital to see it through the next two years.
    2]Does the company carry too much debt.
    3]Is the sector the company the business is in growing.
    4]Do directors and staff hold a good number of shares.
    5]Is the company paying directors and CEO too much.
    6]Has the company issued directors and staff too many unlisted soft options,which will delute eps.
    7] Are the directors honest,ie admit issues facing the company.
    8] Perhaps the most important.Does the company do what they say they will do.
    Following the above and ignoring "the noise" means I have made good judgements.
    great checklist.

    I guess one other question would be (and I learned that the hard way with CBL) - do I really understand the nature of the business?

    Related to Plexure - hands up, who really understands their business? What do they need to do to convince enough customers to give them more money?
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  5. #5215
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rawz View Post
    That's a really good checklist, Percy. I agree the most important is number 8!! For me that is the true measure of whether or not management really understand their business and the market they operate in. TRA and MHJ spring to mind of some good examples. ATM and BLT for some bad examples.
    No 8 - Perhaps the most important.Does the company do what they say they will do.

    I can't honestly answer as BP says I'm biased and don't have an open mind and suffer from this thing called endowment effect.

    So help me out

    Do Plexure do what they say they will do.

    Thanks in advance
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  6. #5216
    percy
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    No 8 - Perhaps the most important.Does the company do what they say they will do.

    I can't honestly answer as BP says I'm biased and don't have an open mind and suffer from this thing called endowment effect.

    So help me out

    Do Plexure do what they say they will do.

    Thanks in advance
    "Endowment effect".A hard one,but really I think you have to stand back and start again.First of all, are the reasons I first brought into this company still good.
    I have recently reviewed my two largest holdings PAZ and SFF,after their agms.
    I am pleased to report both are exceeding my expectations.This was a very important judgement to make as my PAZ holding is substantial.
    I would also agree with other posters you really need to understand the company before you buy shares in it.I usually start with a small position and as I get to know the company,and it is doing what they said it would,I then add to my holding.
    An aside to this I am happy paying increasing prices as I add to my holding.
    Mistakes,or earnings downgrades,sell at the first sign of trouble as you can always buy back in.
    What ever you do,learn to rely on your own judgement.Mistakes help to make you a better investor.
    Last edited by percy; 04-06-2021 at 12:58 PM.

  7. #5217
    Guru Rawz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    No 8 - Perhaps the most important.Does the company do what they say they will do.

    I can't honestly answer as BP says I'm biased and don't have an open mind and suffer from this thing called endowment effect.

    So help me out

    Do Plexure do what they say they will do.

    Thanks in advance
    Gee that's a good point.

    Hmm on reflection they do, they just get the timings horribly wrong

    So for example last year when they said several new customers will be signed up before FY21 what they actually meant was small pita pit customer signed in FY22.

    No worries, cant wait for them to join the billion dollar club. Hope I am alive to see it

  8. #5218
    Membaa
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    Great list percy. I’ve had these since 2014 with a brief period away when I reassessed. The business model is not all that complicated, and the technology is all published if one has the skills to interpret it. The impression I get from this thread is quite a few people don’t do any research, or very little, they’re into PLX or not based on hype, possibly without the skills to time entry or exits. Besides, it’s easy to be on the sidelines sniping at something one doesn’t understand, or want to and dress up other’s viewpoints as ill-formed or myopic

  9. #5219
    Member
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    Apr 2017
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    Everyone got different perspectives depend on whether you are holding, plannings to jump in or planning to run out.

  10. #5220
    Outside thinking.
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    Jan 2013
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rawz View Post
    That's a really good checklist, Percy. I agree the most important is number 8!! For me that is the true measure of whether or not management really understand their business and the market they operate in. TRA and MHJ spring to mind of some good examples. ATM and BLT for some bad examples.
    Agree great list Percy - thanks.
    FWIW ATM had many years of under-selling and over-delivering their results. Only since Covid the wheels have fallen off..... time will tell if this is a temporary or a permanent issue.

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