SVR - Savor Ltd (Formerly MOA)

[shonen knife]

I've seen a few of these "are you complying with Listing Rule 10.1.1" letters recently and the answer is always a very short "Yes we are complying". Wonder what the point is really.

[Xerof]

GO THE CANES ....might just be one of their nights, one of not too many

great game Winner, the CANES deserved the win - fantastic last try, in fact all the tries were stunning to watch

actually, ended up with a spare seat which someone in CHCH could have had if I'd thought about it earlier - next time I'll call for takers

sorry MOA - drank HEINEKIN and TUI all night, followed by a 2012 AWATEA

[Xerof]

we did a vertical tasting a couple of weeks ago of 2006, 2008 and 2012 (my mate had quaffed all the 2010) and we all thought the 2012 was better than the earlier two. I used to religiously buy six of his Coleraine to cellar each release, but have moved on from wine collecting, as I drank it all

For a Buck wine the Awatea is a good option, especially in years when there is no Coleraine (if he doesn't produce a Coleraine, those grapes end up in the Awatea)

I actually prefer Bullnose when I can get it but thats a personal preference. I used to live within 3km of Te Mata's cellar so it was easy to get in those days

[Hawkeye]

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/moa-sha...ance-bd-154294

[arnies]

I picked up a few today. I personally think its still undervalued

Based on potential, not on current sales. I except them to announce they've met their targets, but lower revenue than expected.
Still, they're picking up market share which is great

[JohnnyTheHorse]

I picked up a few today. I personally think its still undervalued

Based on potential, not on current sales. I except them to announce they've met their targets, but lower revenue than expected.
Still, they're picking up market share which is great

Still well overvalued. They have lowered their prices to sell more, but their margins are VERY VERY small. A large proportion of their target market dislikes them quite profoundly due to their marketing. Not hard for them to increase market share when the market is growing so quickly and they are discounting so much. They have some very good beers (Imperial Stout is great), but they also have some very average beers (which quite frankly isn't really acceptable in this industry if you want to make it big). They are having major issues with capacity, which has lead them to contract brewing elsewhere (theres those margins getting even smaller). I'm not sure if they still are (I assume they are), but they were brewing 24/7 - four ~1000L batches per day. It takes the same amount of time to brew 10,000L as it does 1000L, so they are wasting so much in labour costs... so they need larger equipment very soon (probably 1-2 years ago actually).

Emerson's, which had a very good reputation in the industry and was one of the craft brewing pioneers in NZ was sold to Lion for between $15-$20mil. I would say that they were selling more than Moa and not losing millions of dollars a year. Food for thought eh?

[arnies]

I disagree and although I do agree with you that low margins and capacity are big problems I can see people jumping back on board their stock in the next 6 months. As they mentioned in their last report, they've moved significantly away from the super premium low-margin beers and more towards the higher margin 12 pack supermarket style beers.

MOA share price was the lowest it's been at closing yesterday. 65% lower than the day before their earnings expectation announcement last August. Thats quite a big drop for only a 30% sale volume shortfall. Obviously it will be interesting to see what their margins were, especially with all the contract brewing but I don't think their outlook is a bleak as many have been made to believe.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

I disagree and although I do agree with you that low margins and capacity are big problems I can see people jumping back on board their stock in the next 6 months. As they mentioned in their last report, they've moved significantly away from the super premium low-margin beers and more towards the higher margin 12 pack supermarket style beers.

MOA share price was the lowest it's been at closing yesterday. 65% lower than the day before their earnings expectation announcement last August. Thats quite a big drop for only a 30% sale volume shortfall. Obviously it will be interesting to see what their margins were, especially with all the contract brewing but I don't think their outlook is a bleak as many have been made to believe.

I'm afraid that you'll find that MOA will be selling their 12 packs at or just above cost price (and thats excluding their marketing costs). They are trying to create the perception that they are meeting demand. As soon as shareholders demand to see some profits they will have to increase the price of their 12 packs to the point where their customers won't buy it. Do you really think that Moa can produce a 12 pack cheaper than Heineken (hint: No they can't. Their ingredient costs are much larger and economies of scale is a MASSIVE factor in this industry).

It doesn't matter how much lower the SP is compared to what they listed at. What matters is what the company is worth. With the losses they are making and no profit anywhere in the foreseeable future the company isn't worth anywhere near ~$20 million. Those who bought into the IPO were taken for a ride. It was grossly irresponsible for funds such as Milford to buy into the IPO. Gaynor realised their mistakes pretty quickly and knew to cut their losses.

[shonen knife]

I'm afraid that you'll find that MOA will be selling their 12 packs at or just above cost price (and thats excluding their marketing costs). They are trying to create the perception that they are meeting demand. As soon as shareholders demand to see some profits they will have to increase the price of their 12 packs to the point where their customers won't buy it. Do you really think that Moa can produce a 12 pack cheaper than Heineken (hint: No they can't. Their ingredient costs are much larger and economies of scale is a MASSIVE factor in this industry).

I paid $16 the other day for my first bottle of Moa (breakfast, had previously bought a bottle of Imperial Stout for a friend @ $22 but didn't try it) just to see what all the fuss was about. It was nice to have a fancy bottle and all, but didn't enjoy it enough to be be paying that premium again. You can get many other "craft" beers for a similar price (e.g. Hitachino Nest beer) or cheaper (e.g. Ginga Kogen) that come in equally eye-catching bottles and taste better (IMHO).

I was initially interested in buying some shares back when it was just below $1, but I am glad that I held off. I hope that Moa does succeed, but I am not convinced that there is a significant market for beer at this price. The craft beer market already seems saturated with many most excellent beers, so I have plenty more to sample before going back to the Moa range (which I probably wouldn't do at its current price).

But that is just my wallet influenced view on the one Moa beer that I tired. Does anyone rate Moa head and shoulders above other boutique brews?

[arnies]

No they aren't heads & shoulders above NZ beers. I think thats why their low-margin beers like the $22 one you tried failed in NZ.
I actually see them moving slightly away from their self imposed 'super-premium' brand in NZ and grabbing market share with their cheaper-to-brew Original and Sessionable Pale Ale that you might have seen popping up in supermarkets.
I think we'll see a shift with a higher percentage of the premium beers being exported, at least until their new brewery gets built.