NCM--Newcrest Mining Ltd

Gerry another 70% of a thread your ramping posts

[nelehdine]

NCM doesn't need ramping Enigma ... look at todays trading , and not a post on this forum for days before !!

C'mon man , get real !!!

[stolwyk]

A lot of time consuming work and calculations have been done on those posts.

Here is a reference to that NCM thread:

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/topic.a...00&whichpage=2

[nelehdine]

Adding another 20c or so to yesterdays $1 gain ... impressive stuff !!!

[stolwyk]

It should have gone up more but we struck a problem early this morning with a Govt Report saying there were 25000 less job claim seekers than the month before.

The market took that to read that there was still some life in the economy left which could benefit the dollar. Within minutes, the POG dropped $4 and it was a vertical fall as shown by Kitco.

Gerry

[tracker]

gerry how are those calculations looking now/??
just an enquiry
stops as always
you will need them
tracker

[stolwyk]

AGM Presentation:

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-ite...E=ASX&N=226793

Chairman's & MD's AGM Addresses to Shareholders:

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-ite...E=ASX&N=226775

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-ite...E=ASX&N=226760

Unaudited profit $21.90 m but this doesn't include a late shipment of $7 m.

Group gold production was 9.3% down while copper was 11.6% down.

Hedging at Sept 30:
Gold: 6.9 mill ounces.
Copper: 207,000 tonnes.

+++++++++++++++++++++++

Current market gold price $ 425.20
$US: 85.2

NCM price: $A16.46 (-86 cents)

[stolwyk]

Amended guided profit forecast.

In the last quarter, gold production slipped 9.3% while that of copper slipped 11.6%.

The completion date of the new Plants is not known; this introduces a degree of uncertainty.

The quarterly profit was $28.90 if a late shipment of $7 mill were included.

The previous forecast was $300 mill and the E/S was 91 cents . Based on the price of $14.04, the forward P/E was 15.4 (329 mill shares).

I believe the forecasted profit needs to be rerated to about $250 mill. or 76 cents per share (329.2 mill shares).

Based on the price of $16.46, the forward P/E is 21.65.
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Comment: Obviously, once Telfer starts operating, the picture changes and I am more interested in the following financial year's production.

Of some importance is the triangular fight of Harmony--Goldfields--IMG.

Harmony bid for Goldfields who in turn wants to take over Iamgold. Harmony thinks its bid has preference and is applying to the court to have the the case brought back to its original position.

The outcome could affect NCM because the battle is all about competitive large resources.

If Goldfields merged with Harmony then other large companies (say Newmont) may act to extend its resources by a takeover of say NCM.
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The Chinese are very active in Canada at the moment (Noranda, oil sands) and may well be looking sooner or later for large gold companies.

Because NCM would operate at low cash costs, it could become a takeover candidate as well either by the Chinese or through reshuffling of assets due to the Chinese possibly taking over another large company (Placer Dome?).

The Chinese would want large quantities of gold as they are keen their citizens should have some.

Assume that some 300,000 mill. Chinese want to buy one ounce of gold, that will be 9331 tonnes.

World Suply-From World Gold: In 2003, some 3865 tonnes from all sources were supplied, including scrap and some 617 tonnes sold by the "Official Sector".

I don't think we shall see too much sold by this Sector, indeed they could be net buyers.

So, there could be interesting times coming up for NCM.
I am not suggesting there will be a takeover of course.

NEWMONT: P/E: about 47.6 (Source: TSX-Toronto)


Gerry
Holds NCM
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

[stolwyk]

WHICH COMPANY WOULD BE TAKEN OVER FIRST: NCM OR OXR?

I think that NCM would with their close to 60 mill ounces of gold resources.

The big boys go for companies like NCM because it will be super efficient once Telfer starts up.

Who would take it over? Any of the following:

1. Any large company like NEWMONT. If there is a merger somewhere else, then a company like Newmont wants to keep ahead with its resources compared with that of the merged companies.

2. China. This country will need a lot of gold at some stage and it could buy NCM. (China wants its citizens to have gold). That will give it certainty of supply and it could buy when the prices won't be too high.

Any merger or takeover could be suddenly anounced.
_______________________________

OXR for all its combination of gold and copper won't be taken over now, I think.

It is not cheap now and needs a few years of production before an offer can be made. Some may prefer a mono culture, either gold or copper but not both.

I am not suggesting there wil be a takeover or merger.

That is my opinion.

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks. To visit archived posts, please use the Search button

[nelehdine]

Quite an amazing performance from NCM ,up to an eye-watering $17.87 which is an all-time high. The stock has been on a breakneck rally over the last few months ... you could have bought them for less than $11 only back in April. I sold out at $14 but fortunately bit the bullet, swallowed my pride and jumped back in at $15.50 a few short weeks ago ( when the A$ was at .9325 as well !! ) I think this could be an amazing ride over the next few years ... the hardest part will be resisting the temptation to flick them when they have big 50c rises day after day or the much vaunted takeover comes along from Newmont or Barrick and they leap $5 in a single day ...

Disc: Determined NCM long-term holder !!