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  1. #4051
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    more good grades from the ore face !

  2. #4052
    Senior Member
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    Bit of time at the end of my day as i finished all my tasks, so i thought id just comment on my former rough calc.

    It was intended to be a very generous (blind to any negatives) valuation to show that these are over priced. My comment about what I'm missing wasn't about the elegance of the sums, rather a question about what im missing about why they're so expensive.

    Figured I'd play dumb to the correction to the pe in which i assumed no costs (thinking i was emphasizing the generosity of the value), because i cba justifying it at the time and didn't want to take away kudos of any nice folk trying to help (which i always appreciate), but upon reflection i feel obliged to because re reading it, it could be read as though im suggesting that people might double their money here, which was the opposite of what i was aiming for.

    Unless im missing something (feel like i am because i figure the market is probably smarter than me), these seem like they're priced as if the mine was going to go forever at the predicted rate.

    I suspect that upon successfully moving some gold, these shares will go up, then back down as sentiment gives way to fundamentals.

    Please explain to me if I'm wrong, but this looks like a bad investment but maybe a good trade if you have sufficiently large hairy danglers.

  3. #4053
    Senior Member
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    Mar 2014
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    I havent done any sums, but i think you are spot on. It went up quite a bit in July 17.......wow that long ago? And i expect it might do it again at some point, at which point i,ll trade out again.
    Thanks for your insight.

  4. #4054
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    Jan 2015
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lewylewylewy View Post
    Bit of time at the end of my day as i finished all my tasks, so i thought id just comment on my former rough calc.
    If you are referring to post #4020, then you are only looking at bulk sampling values. In terms of volume, once full mining is underway it is expected 50,000 tonnes per annum will be processed for 9 years (27/6/2018).
    We are looking at a potential of 427,600 Oz Au Eq in Maria vein alone (5/9/2017). That's over $500m Au or equivalent at current prices. Even with extraction costs taken into account, the USD/NZD going in our favour, it's much more than a 3-6 PE once fully operational.
    We still have some time to go before mining is underway in the full sense though.


    Last edited by Antipodean; 25-01-2019 at 12:53 AM.

  5. #4055
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lewylewylewy View Post
    Bit of time at the end of my day as i finished all my tasks, so i thought id just comment on my former rough calc.

    It was intended to be a very generous (blind to any negatives) valuation to show that these are over priced. My comment about what I'm missing wasn't about the elegance of the sums, rather a question about what im missing about why they're so expensive.

    Figured I'd play dumb to the correction to the pe in which i assumed no costs (thinking i was emphasizing the generosity of the value), because i cba justifying it at the time and didn't want to take away kudos of any nice folk trying to help (which i always appreciate), but upon reflection i feel obliged to because re reading it, it could be read as though im suggesting that people might double their money here, which was the opposite of what i was aiming for.

    Unless im missing something (feel like i am because i figure the market is probably smarter than me), these seem like they're priced as if the mine was going to go forever at the predicted rate.

    I suspect that upon successfully moving some gold, these shares will go up, then back down as sentiment gives way to fundamentals.

    Please explain to me if I'm wrong, but this looks like a bad investment but maybe a good trade if you have sufficiently large hairy danglers.
    Even with my large hairy danglers I would not touch this stock

  6. #4056
    Alley Cat Brain's Avatar
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    May 2013
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    Quote Originally Posted by blackcap View Post
    Even with my large hairy danglers I would not touch this stock
    Shares like this is what makes do it yourself investing fun. It could be hugely profitable or crash and burn or anything in between. The alley cat in me can’t resist it.

  7. #4057
    Junior Member
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    Aug 2017
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    This is obviously a speculative stock. But what if this turns out to be true?

    Should the Mystery prove to be as extensive as postulated it may prove to be similar to the Maria Vein, the main vein exploited at the historical Talisman Mine and from which more than 3 million ounces of bullion was produced over the mines 23-year life.

    Top of page 3 on latest announcement

  8. #4058
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    Thanks all. So my understanding is that it's priced for reaching the afore mentioned goals, but folk are hoping for 10x return if our gets lucky (roughly based on numbers above).

    I can't see a very high pe once mining is successful and the value of the mine is clear, because there'd be no point paying a multiple of yearly earnings beyond the number of years that it's able to earn, surely? So its likely going to have a pe of no more than 9, but in reality must be less than that (because why buy something for the value you will get in total by the end), and pe will contract by at least 1 pa as the pot of gold is gradually mined out. I suppose the only way to get a higher pe would be speculation that there's yet more, beyond what's being pulled out.

    Thanks all for helping me understand the potential benefits of this. Maybe I'll buy $1,000 worth for the giggles, but probably not.

    Good luck to all holders. I hope it works out great for you.

  9. #4059
    Senior Member
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    May 2018
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    The other roll of the dice is that the price of gold goes through the roof ... USD potential collapse, trade wars, actual wars, Brexit and the EU. Lots of reasons out there that might give you your 10x return.

    Of course the headwinds they are facing with dirty mining in a clean green lead Government might eat up those profits.

    How lucky do you feel?

  10. #4060
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    Jan 2015
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    Nothing dirty about closed water loop mining in an existing underground stratum.

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