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  1. #4261
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    Just had a phone call from a very friendly lady who read a big positive speel about NTL to me and then asked if I was planning on taking up the SPP offer. Ok, yes I confess, I do own a just a few NTL shares . Hmmm me thinks if they need to ring the Bear to drill up interest they are in very dire straits.

  2. #4262
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    Quote Originally Posted by RupertBear View Post
    Just had a phone call from a very friendly lady who read a big positive speel about NTL to me and then asked if I was planning on taking up the SPP offer. Ok, yes I confess, I do own a just a few NTL shares . Hmmm me thinks if they need to ring the Bear to drill up interest they are in very dire straits.
    Plenty of goldies actually producing on the ASX there RB, some of them even have cash in the bank and pay dividends. Just saying

  3. #4263
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    Quote Originally Posted by McGinty View Post
    Plenty of goldies actually producing on the ASX there RB, some of them even have cash in the bank and pay dividends. Just saying
    Thanks McGinty, will do some research

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    Quote Originally Posted by RupertBear View Post
    Thanks McGinty, will do some research
    Research is good, if your keen to save time....just check out the ones that are in uptrend. These are the leaders according to the market! These stocks are taking advantage of the high POG in AUD terms.

  5. #4265
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    Quote Originally Posted by McGinty View Post
    Research is good, if your keen to save time....just check out the ones that are in uptrend. These are the leaders according to the market! These stocks are taking advantage of the high POG in AUD terms.
    Thanks again, much appreciated

  6. #4266
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    Quote Originally Posted by McGinty View Post
    Research is good, if your keen to save time....just check out the ones that are in uptrend. These are the leaders according to the market! These stocks are taking advantage of the high POG in AUD terms.
    I disagree McGinty that the leaders are the way to go. If by leaders, you mean those with the highest production, then these often become overvalued and anyway, their returns on investment are likely to be lower, although, generally speaking, they do have lower risk. Newcrest, the largest Australian gold company, languished for many years because it overpaid to buy Lihir Gold (a large mine offshore of Papua New Guinea) that needed a lot of money spent in order to keep its production going, even though it is a rich mine.
    If by leaders you mean those whose whose share prices are going up most, then be careful. The gold market on the ASX is a wild west arena and fluctuates strongly, along with executives and directors who are intent on retaining their positions. Market manipulation is rife, as is leaky news with insiders (or "friends" of insiders) getting advantage.
    Recently the ASX has seen a number of gold producers get into serious trouble, including administration, looking for takeover, or committing to adverse funding at the expense of existing shareholders.

    Often the mid-tier producers give better returns while developers (those with reserves who are establishing mines and processing plants) have higher risk but can give higher returns. Then there are explorers who have not yet established sufficient reserves and resources to consider a mine. These are the riskiest but can give very high returns and so should have smaller amounts invested.

    A gold company's prospects are linked to:
    a) its reserves - the amount of gold in the ground that is considered by a professional geologist to be economic for mining according to international standards (JORC)
    b) its resources - the amount of gold in the ground including reserves but also that which is not yet assessed as reserve but for which drilling results indicate that there is reasonable probability that it could be
    c) the level of production per annum
    d) the life of the mine(s)
    e) the cost of extracting and producing the gold over the life of the mine(s) - otherwise known as ASIC = All In Sustaining Costs
    f)) the price of gold, taking into account the level of hedging in place

    There are various measures used to assess the value of a gold company. Some of the most significant ones are:
    i) the Enterprise Value (EV) to Annual Production ratio ($/oz)
    ii) the EV to Reserve ratio ($/oz)
    iii) the EV to Resource ratio ($/oz)
    iv) Life of Mine in years, which generally speaking is the reserves divided by annual production
    v) the Price of Gold less the AISC which gives an indication of the operating profit

    Companies with high production generally have higher EV ratios than those with lower production. This reflects their lower risk. However, it is important to understand what the reserves and production output and costs will be going forward.

    I do not advise buying any gold company and putting the shares on the shelf. I think they need constant monitoring and readiness to sell. There is too much constant change to let them sleep, including the price of gold, mine situations and market sentiment (which is often manipulated).
    As gold is mined and produced, reserves lessen along with mine life. Exploration consumes millions of dollars but is necessary to establish new resources and reserves for continuing production. Establishing a process plant for new mines costs hundreds of millions.

    Having said all this, I do not recommend NTL and if anyone wants to buy gold companies then the ASX is much better. So far as NZ gold activity goes, then Oceana Gold (OCG.ASX) with producing mines at Macraes in Otago and at Waihi (as well as The Philippines and the USA) is a much better prospect than NTL (which is a pip-squeak developer). OGC is producing about 525Koz of gold over the next year. However, check out the various valuation metrics for OGC and look at them all, because when a company produces comparisons across a range of companies, it always chooses those that are in its favour and ignores those which are not. If you want a bit of safety then look at producers with 200 Koz p.a. or more but recognise that "safety" is a very relative and tenuous term for any gold company. I only mention OGC because it has NZ mines. Whether it is a better investment at present than other goldies is a matter of opinion (not necessarily my own) and you will have to make your own decision. I own OGC as part of a wide ranging gold portfolio.

    I have realised an average of 38% from gold companies over the past 4 years but my current holdings are close to break-even at present (positively) which probably gives some idea as to the volatility and risks involved. I invest rather than trade and so need to look at a long term picture, which is not easy with gold companies that delve underground to extract the gold and cannot "see" the gold but have to use various geotechnical methods to estimate where it is economic to mine.

    Disclosure: I have shares in OGC and previously NTL but also have holdings in 20 other gold companies.

  7. #4267
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    Quote Originally Posted by SilverBack View Post
    I disagree McGinty that the leaders are the way to go. If by leaders, you mean those with the highest production, then these often become overvalued and anyway, their returns on investment are likely to be lower, although, generally speaking, they do have lower risk. Newcrest, the largest Australian gold company, languished for many years because it overpaid to buy Lihir Gold (a large mine offshore of Papua New Guinea) that needed a lot of money spent in order to keep its production going, even though it is a rich mine.
    If by leaders you mean those whose whose share prices are going up most, then be careful. The gold market on the ASX is a wild west arena and fluctuates strongly, along with executives and directors who are intent on retaining their positions. Market manipulation is rife, as is leaky news with insiders (or "friends" of insiders) getting advantage.
    Recently the ASX has seen a number of gold producers get into serious trouble, including administration, looking for takeover, or committing to adverse funding at the expense of existing shareholders.

    Often the mid-tier producers give better returns while developers (those with reserves who are establishing mines and processing plants) have higher risk but can give higher returns. Then there are explorers who have not yet established sufficient reserves and resources to consider a mine. These are the riskiest but can give very high returns and so should have smaller amounts invested.

    A gold company's prospects are linked to:
    a) its reserves - the amount of gold in the ground that is considered by a professional geologist to be economic for mining according to international standards (JORC)
    b) its resources - the amount of gold in the ground including reserves but also that which is not yet assessed as reserve but for which drilling results indicate that there is reasonable probability that it could be
    c) the level of production per annum
    d) the life of the mine(s)
    e) the cost of extracting and producing the gold over the life of the mine(s) - otherwise known as ASIC = All In Sustaining Costs
    f)) the price of gold, taking into account the level of hedging in place

    There are various measures used to assess the value of a gold company. Some of the most significant ones are:
    i) the Enterprise Value (EV) to Annual Production ratio ($/oz)
    ii) the EV to Reserve ratio ($/oz)
    iii) the EV to Resource ratio ($/oz)
    iv) Life of Mine in years, which generally speaking is the reserves divided by annual production
    v) the Price of Gold less the AISC which gives an indication of the operating profit

    Companies with high production generally have higher EV ratios than those with lower production. This reflects their lower risk. However, it is important to understand what the reserves and production output and costs will be going forward.

    I do not advise buying any gold company and putting the shares on the shelf. I think they need constant monitoring and readiness to sell. There is too much constant change to let them sleep, including the price of gold, mine situations and market sentiment (which is often manipulated).
    As gold is mined and produced, reserves lessen along with mine life. Exploration consumes millions of dollars but is necessary to establish new resources and reserves for continuing production. Establishing a process plant for new mines costs hundreds of millions.

    Having said all this, I do not recommend NTL and if anyone wants to buy gold companies then the ASX is much better. So far as NZ gold activity goes, then Oceana Gold (OCG.ASX) with producing mines at Macraes in Otago and at Waihi (as well as The Philippines and the USA) is a much better prospect than NTL (which is a pip-squeak developer). OGC is producing about 525Koz of gold over the next year. However, check out the various valuation metrics for OGC and look at them all, because when a company produces comparisons across a range of companies, it always chooses those that are in its favour and ignores those which are not. If you want a bit of safety then look at producers with 200 Koz p.a. or more but recognise that "safety" is a very relative and tenuous term for any gold company. I only mention OGC because it has NZ mines. Whether it is a better investment at present than other goldies is a matter of opinion (not necessarily my own) and you will have to make your own decision. I own OGC as part of a wide ranging gold portfolio.

    I have realised an average of 38% from gold companies over the past 4 years but my current holdings are close to break-even at present (positively) which probably gives some idea as to the volatility and risks involved. I invest rather than trade and so need to look at a long term picture, which is not easy with gold companies that delve underground to extract the gold and cannot "see" the gold but have to use various geotechnical methods to estimate where it is economic to mine.

    Disclosure: I have shares in OGC and previously NTL but also have holdings in 20 other gold companies.
    Fabulous post thanks SilverBack, heaps of really helpful information to digest.

  8. #4268
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    Quote Originally Posted by RupertBear View Post
    Fabulous post thanks SilverBack, heaps of really helpful information to digest.
    I second that, thank you for putting in the time to share your learnings with the community.

  9. #4269
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    Quote Originally Posted by SilverBack View Post
    I disagree McGinty that the leaders are the way to go. If by leaders, you mean those with the highest production, then these often become overvalued and anyway, their returns on investment are likely to be lower, although, generally speaking, they do have lower risk. Newcrest, the largest Australian gold company, languished for many years because it overpaid to buy Lihir Gold (a large mine offshore of Papua New Guinea) that needed a lot of money spent in order to keep its production going, even though it is a rich mine.
    If by leaders you mean those whose whose share prices are going up most, then be careful. The gold market on the ASX is a wild west arena and fluctuates strongly, along with executives and directors who are intent on retaining their positions. Market manipulation is rife, as is leaky news with insiders (or "friends" of insiders) getting advantage.
    Recently the ASX has seen a number of gold producers get into serious trouble, including administration, looking for takeover, or committing to adverse funding at the expense of existing shareholders.

    Often the mid-tier producers give better returns while developers (those with reserves who are establishing mines and processing plants) have higher risk but can give higher returns. Then there are explorers who have not yet established sufficient reserves and resources to consider a mine. These are the riskiest but can give very high returns and so should have smaller amounts invested.

    A gold company's prospects are linked to:
    a) its reserves - the amount of gold in the ground that is considered by a professional geologist to be economic for mining according to international standards (JORC)
    b) its resources - the amount of gold in the ground including reserves but also that which is not yet assessed as reserve but for which drilling results indicate that there is reasonable probability that it could be
    c) the level of production per annum
    d) the life of the mine(s)
    e) the cost of extracting and producing the gold over the life of the mine(s) - otherwise known as ASIC = All In Sustaining Costs
    f)) the price of gold, taking into account the level of hedging in place

    There are various measures used to assess the value of a gold company. Some of the most significant ones are:
    i) the Enterprise Value (EV) to Annual Production ratio ($/oz)
    ii) the EV to Reserve ratio ($/oz)
    iii) the EV to Resource ratio ($/oz)
    iv) Life of Mine in years, which generally speaking is the reserves divided by annual production
    v) the Price of Gold less the AISC which gives an indication of the operating profit

    Companies with high production generally have higher EV ratios than those with lower production. This reflects their lower risk. However, it is important to understand what the reserves and production output and costs will be going forward.

    I do not advise buying any gold company and putting the shares on the shelf. I think they need constant monitoring and readiness to sell. There is too much constant change to let them sleep, including the price of gold, mine situations and market sentiment (which is often manipulated).
    As gold is mined and produced, reserves lessen along with mine life. Exploration consumes millions of dollars but is necessary to establish new resources and reserves for continuing production. Establishing a process plant for new mines costs hundreds of millions.

    Having said all this, I do not recommend NTL and if anyone wants to buy gold companies then the ASX is much better. So far as NZ gold activity goes, then Oceana Gold (OCG.ASX) with producing mines at Macraes in Otago and at Waihi (as well as The Philippines and the USA) is a much better prospect than NTL (which is a pip-squeak developer). OGC is producing about 525Koz of gold over the next year. However, check out the various valuation metrics for OGC and look at them all, because when a company produces comparisons across a range of companies, it always chooses those that are in its favour and ignores those which are not. If you want a bit of safety then look at producers with 200 Koz p.a. or more but recognise that "safety" is a very relative and tenuous term for any gold company. I only mention OGC because it has NZ mines. Whether it is a better investment at present than other goldies is a matter of opinion (not necessarily my own) and you will have to make your own decision. I own OGC as part of a wide ranging gold portfolio.

    I have realised an average of 38% from gold companies over the past 4 years but my current holdings are close to break-even at present (positively) which probably gives some idea as to the volatility and risks involved. I invest rather than trade and so need to look at a long term picture, which is not easy with gold companies that delve underground to extract the gold and cannot "see" the gold but have to use various geotechnical methods to estimate where it is economic to mine.

    Disclosure: I have shares in OGC and previously NTL but also have holdings in 20 other gold companies.
    Silverback all good points for larger companies but its pretty hard measuring apples to apples. NZ has one underground gold mine - TALISMAN. one listed NZ company with an underground gold mine - NTL . NZ really has no exploration industry majors like OGC explore and Juniors like NTL "go it alone into development and production".

    Whereas in Australia explorers sell projects once resouces built into measured and go off exploring again. Not trying to tell you how to suck eggs at all silverback was bringing colour to your insights with regard to th NZ minerals industry.



    NTL has

    a) JORC Reserves - 60000 OZ
    b) JORC 400K ounces resource
    c) Not relevant while in development yet they still expect to produce 8000 ounces
    d) Life of mine set out in PFS showed at least 7 years without touching the deep
    e) I think they had a $700 cost all in in PFS release but may be wrong. - Anyone - There was a guy digger here that was across this. Due to the grades. less dirt moved more grade less cost
    f) Hedging by a developer or even junior producer/mid - Come now...

    Measures
    EV to annual production - 0 production as yet
    EV to reserve - Mckt cap/ (60K ounces @ 2000) =
    EV to resource - 15m/ 400K ounces
    Life of mine - mine life is determined by PFS under JORC was 5 years I think
    POG - C3- 2000NZD - 700NZD = .....


    So which companies can we compare ? a 200K oz per annum producer----Surely not. An explorer with a resource and reserve near this co? (which one?) A NZ developer - None to compare.



    I had a good look at this and it seems most investors who came in at their major 6m raise 2 year ago did very well .5- 3cents - has drifted back near issue so one needs to look at what we got for our 6M - 200K ounces we didnt have, mine installed - ready to go, pilot plant all of their technical stuff Geowhizz and at a grade 10 times that of waihi....

    Interested in yours and others thoughts to work out where this unique play sits value wise

  10. #4270
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    Great post SilverBack and i agree especially with this "I do not advise buying any gold company and putting the shares on the shelf. I think they need constant monitoring and readiness to sell. There is too much constant change to let them sleep, including the price of gold, mine situations and market sentiment (which is often manipulated)."

    The developer explorers are extreme high risk and one really and truly HAS to accept that they could lose all, the odds are against you. i know someone who has for many years specialised in small cap Goldies as a small part of his portfolio, visits and interviews management and emails them and does a hell of a lot of research and knows all the mining terminology and the various options and equipment, understands and interprets the results of drills, the maps, etc etc.

    Also there is alot of spin and gloss and pumping and dumping posting is done on H/C to influence people. He has
    prob a little more success then failure, but when he feels certain goes in big.

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