NTL - New Talisman Mine - New board & Directors

[cammo]

I'm thinking they have dropped the offer to existing holders to be able to buy at a discount to market once the good grade announcement is dropped.

They're being nice to us, cos it might be every man and his dog wanting in once the grade announcement rolls through

[Joshuatree]

Niceness doesn't exist in their business minds.I have never seen this back to front announcement happen before esp on tiny, spekky explorer, developers . I hope a good results announcement comes for holders (not me) otherwise nothing is going to shore the s/p up; you are in for potentially a doubling of shares to what ,3 billion , dilution plus..!!!

[Jaiden]

As JT said, niceness doesn't exist. Something smells fishy to me, so might as well crunch some numbers.

After the Dubbo double grades announcement, they said they were fully funded with $5.7m in cash until 2020 - that's 3 years, or $1.9m per year.

Now they want to raise up to $13.2m (30% of current number of shares @ 2.2c each), and then another $6m in 2022 from the options (I'm not too experience with options, but I'll make a harsh estimate that only $2-3m will be gained from those options). By 2022, you would expect them to have the gold mines in at least dubbo up an running, able to cover any ongoing expenses and fund more prospecting, so they are clearly planning something for 2022. God knows what, but it's unlikely we'd be able to work it out from what we know.

Not to mention that to spend 13.2m + 5.7m by 2022, ignoring any income, means spending about $3.8m per year over 5 years - double their expected cash outflows after the dubbo upgrade. Maybe that means that bonanza is on-par with dubbo in it's ore purity and quantity of gold, so they want to invest the same amount in buying mining equipment etc. That or it's insanely better so they're ignoring dubbo, investing all their money in bonanza and probably hitting their mining permit's restrictions. Restrictions which they are trying to increase. A third option may be that they are trying to spend that 13.2m on buying nearby private land for more prospecting (I haven't checked if there is any though). Since dubbo and possibly bonanza have gold ore qualities that place them in the top 10 gold mines by purity worldwide, a chance of discovering a similar gold ore vein might well be worth the risk.

Also, I feel like they are unlikely to need more than $3.8m per year. Just making an assumption here, but if they wanted more cash to maximize the mines asap if bonanza was trully amazing, then they should've made the SPP at market value or even after the bonanza announcement (which has been delayed twice now...) to be able to raise more (30% at 2.7-3c+ is more than 30% at 2.2c). There would've been no harm in waiting, besides having too much cash to spend. I wonder what Matt Hill was thinking by severely undercutting the market with the SPP and effectively pushing his own shares off of a cliff for a 25% loss in one day. Wonder if he tried to prevent it :P

No idea where I'm going with this, just thought I should crunch some numbers and have a ramble. Thoughts?

[Bluemanarc]

Ausies are talking about a takeover at 5c, possibly up to 15c, where do they get that from ?

It would have been pointless exercise to ask for more capital at 2.2c and then provide bad news as come 22/9 they would get zero capital.
If they were doing something dodgy they would have put the new capital purchase higher than or close to current price on the day.

Todays announcement shouldn't have made a difference to share price as it wasn't bad news, it was just them wanting more funds now to ramp production up, and to get more funds in 2022 as well, but I think it was badly done.

It may however be the only way for them, at the time, to get the funds they need, to strongly get underway and start getting that gold out of the mine.
Look at that list of things they are wanting the capital for, and I remind you again, the health and safety and environmental concerns - that only NZ pencil pushing zealots create - will have cost them more than they thought to overcome.

That 5.5c option is a marker for future price of where they think SP should be as a minimum.

They may have had issues releasing news and pumping up the share price and then doing the capital raising

[HumptyDumpty]

Ausies are talking about a takeover at 5c, possibly up to 15c, where do they get that from ?

It would have been pointless exercise to ask for more capital at 2.2c and then provide bad news as come 22/9 they would get zero capital.
If they were doing something dodgy they would have put the new capital purchase higher than or close to current price on the day.

Todays announcement shouldn't have made a difference to share price as it wasn't bad news, it was just them wanting more funds now to ramp production up, and to get more funds in 2022 as well, but I think it was badly done.

It may however be the only way for them, at the time, to get the funds they need, to strongly get underway and start getting that gold out of the mine.
Look at that list of things they are wanting the capital for, and I remind you again, the health and safety and environmental concerns - that only NZ pencil pushing zealots create - will have cost them more than they thought to overcome.

That 5.5c option is a marker for future price of where they think SP should be as a minimum.

They may have had issues releasing news and pumping up the share price and then doing the capital raising

Think you're spot on here personally.

[Ace]

Ausies are talking about a takeover at 5c, possibly up to 15c, where do they get that from ?

It would have been pointless exercise to ask for more capital at 2.2c and then provide bad news as come 22/9 they would get zero capital.
If they were doing something dodgy they would have put the new capital purchase higher than or close to current price on the day.

Todays announcement shouldn't have made a difference to share price as it wasn't bad news, it was just them wanting more funds now to ramp production up, and to get more funds in 2022 as well, but I think it was badly done.

It may however be the only way for them, at the time, to get the funds they need, to strongly get underway and start getting that gold out of the mine.
Look at that list of things they are wanting the capital for, and I remind you again, the health and safety and environmental concerns - that only NZ pencil pushing zealots create - will have cost them more than they thought to overcome.

That 5.5c option is a marker for future price of where they think SP should be as a minimum.

They may have had issues releasing news and pumping up the share price and then doing the capital raising

I somewhat agree with this sentiment, it would shine negatively on management if bonanza news was anything else but positive or if the SPP was performed after positive news. One thing for certain is management has a lot of questions to answer, particularly after implying they had enough funds, failing to meet self imposed deadlines - and then managing to flip the script and offering an SPP - to what seems in my opinion, out of the blue. In addition, they moved shares from trusts to individuals.

The list of what they want the capital for is great and all, although surely as a NZX and ASX listed company they would have had some foresight that they would require more capital far ahead of time - however their reports and releases implied otherwise.

Re: shareprice, of course it would make a difference - fundamentally nothing has changed, although it accounts for the fact that there will be some dilution in the future, with shares entering the market less than the current SP at the time. After the announcement, it is a fair decision to sell your stock (up to $15k worth) for the higher price and buy back in with the offer.

We share the same sentiment and I strongly agree that it was badly done. Ultimately, only time will tell if management are adhering to good faith and their fiduciary duties.

[Baa_Baa]

You noobs (with some respect) can rationalise it any way you want but the game of 'shafting the bunnies' is to pump the prospects, then raise the capital. NTL are experts, they've been at it for donkey's years. None of you saw this SPP coming did you? None of you saw the smart money ride the SP to .03 and sell into strength, did you? How many took profits last week and today? Plenty. Don't believe everything you see or read on this or Hotcopper, both are controlled by much smarter and more experienced traders than you noobs have any idea about, yet. The one you idolise, she is oh so much smarter and more experienced than most of you, maybe all of you? She'll have your wallet and laugh at you later. She and they will ride your back and your wallet on every uptick and down tick with no remorse. Just saying, this isn't and has never been a share for the intrepid adventurer with a few $ to make them rich. It is, has been, and remains a stock for the shrewd calculating experienced trader who will undoubtably end up with your money in their pockets. It happens all the time, just not very often here on the NZX. But this is one of those times. Caveat emptor. Flame that, and prove you're a noob, or suck it up and learn. Just saying.

[Snow Leopard]

You noobs (with some respect) can rationalise it any way you want but the game of 'shafting the bunnies' is to pump the prospects, then raise the capital. NTL are experts, they've been at it for donkey's years. None of you saw this SPP coming did you? None of you saw the smart money ride the SP to .03 and sell into strength, did you? How many took profits last week and today? Plenty. Don't believe everything you see or read on this or Hotcopper, both are controlled by much smarter and more experienced traders than you noobs have any idea about, yet. The one you idolise, she is oh so much smarter and more experienced than most of you, maybe all of you? She'll have your wallet and laugh at you later. She and they will ride your back and your wallet on every uptick and down tick with no remorse. Just saying, this isn't and has never been a share for the intrepid adventurer with a few $ to make them rich. It is, has been, and remains a stock for the shrewd calculating experienced trader who will undoubtably end up with your money in their pockets. It happens all the time, just not very often here on the NZX. But this is one of those times. Caveat emptor. Flame that, and prove you're a noob, or suck it up and learn. Just saying.

Whatever it is that you have in the evening, you should really give it up, BB.

Best Wishes

[Joshuatree]

Cap Raising JT? Fully funded until 2020. Bulk Sampling kicking in this year will only add to the cashflow...Oh and the options which are worth another 2+million to the company are well in the money at this point.
You were right earlier...you really haven't been following NTL have you?

yeah right, tui

[silverblizzard888]

Overall todays announcement was a surprise that rattled the market and all who have been interested in the stock. Especially when you have the word of management saying they are funded all the way to 2020.

Was it bad timing? Yes incredibly bad timing because we are still waiting on the rest of the upgrades to come in, so to pop that in without giving us the rest of the credible information is terrible, if we are expecting the upgrade in the next couple of days then then give us the upgrade first and then explain to the market that you want to expand the initial plans and that you want to fund it by doing a capital raising, thats how it should be done. Not underhand surprises that has one part of the market annoyed and the other half too optimistic and in denial how badly timed it was, rather than a plan to give shareholders a hand in the cookie jar.

This is probably how it will play out:
-We will get the upgrade for Bonzana this week, it will be good as the market expects.
-Shareholders will be pleased, many will partake in SPP
-In the meantime share price will hover around mid-2s
-November upgrade will be released, share price will get moving again and by end of the year mid-3s
- bulk sampling will begin in new year and share price will continue to hold in mid-3s for most of next year