Outlook for interest rates

[Jenny Ruth]

Hi all. My latest column published on my Substack, Just the Business, looks at whether we should believe the Reserve Bank that interest rates may have to rise again next year and that the first rate cut won't be before mid-2025. The headline gives the game away: RBNZ wants us to believe the unbelievable.
You can read it here:
https://justthebusinessjennyruth.sub...e-unbelievable

[SailorRob]

Some good points and data.

No mention of the most important input into everything though. Oil prices.

[GTM 3442]

I wonder what President Putin's trip to Saudi Arabia and the Emirates might mean for those oil prices.

[Jenny Ruth]

Hi SailorRob. I'd say oil prices is another thing RBNZ can't do anything about.

[SailorRob]

Hi SailorRob. I'd say oil prices is another thing RBNZ can't do anything about.

Well... They can solve climate change, inequality and appease the Forrest gods. Not much Orr cannot do!

[Valuegrowth]

Anything can happen to oil. Even can go below $50. I have studied volatility and major trends in the commodity market.

[mistymountain]

I wonder what President Putin's trip to Saudi Arabia and the Emirates might mean for those oil prices.

And to Gold Prices....will Russia continue to lever the BRICS towards Gold as a way to transact? https://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanl...h=2db22ec65eb3

May take more years to achieve but given their Central Banks have significant gold hoards, history may well repeat...

[Valuegrowth]

One thing is for sure. Cannot expect major drop in interest rates in 2024 as well. Still it will be high.

https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/news/ba...232917707.html

[alokdhir]

Heard on CNBC why US10Y will go to 5.5% next year ...all the reasons are good for stocks but bad for bonds ....mix of better growth and higher inflation will lead to higher for longer rates ...Bonds will loose to stocks in this battle as per the commentator's opinion ....though no runaway rally either . Better watch out Bond holders .....Bull mate !!

[GTM 3442]

Gold is far too complicated. I’d look to a trend for trade to happen in currencies other than USD. Although what the Russian oil industry can do with all those Indian rupees is a moot point.