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Originally Posted by BlackPeter
Better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick that's for sure. I hold and am wondering if the decline to 52 week lows is a little overdone ?
I get it that the market is a little worried about the fact that we may be at the bottom of the interest rate cycle, certainly from an international perspective but with RBNZ looking to cut next month and a current PIE exempt return of 6.1 / 106 = 5.75% = 8.58% gross for 33% taxpaying shareholders I would have thought we'd found a floor at the current level.
Interesting to note that ARG has grown underlying earnings per unit by a CAGR of 6% per annum for the last five years. A somewhat misunderstood and very conservative investment in my opinion.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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Originally Posted by Roger
Better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick that's for sure. I hold and am wondering if the decline to 52 week lows is a little overdone ?
I get it that the market is a little worried about the fact that we may be at the bottom of the interest rate cycle, certainly from an international perspective but with RBNZ looking to cut next month and a current PIE exempt return of 6.1 / 106 = 5.75% = 8.58% gross for 33% taxpaying shareholders I would have thought we'd found a floor at the current level.
Interesting to note that ARG has grown underlying earnings per unit by a CAGR of 6% per annum for the last five years. A somewhat misunderstood and very conservative investment in my opinion.
Looks like there are some investments we can agree on ...; I couldn't resist to buy some more at 106.5 ... and yes, this is the conservative part of my portfolio I used to put into bonds - at times when you still got a return from them worthwhile mentioning.
While ARG might go down slightly if & when bond interest rates are returning above 6% or so again (not sure, I expect that anytime soon), would I think that they are a quite safe investment even if the markets decide at some stage to rerun the GFC ... it would take a lot to push a material number of their customers at the same time out of business, and even than would they still have the buildings.
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"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
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So much more to see and do
Originally Posted by Paper Tiger
Yesterday (when all my troubles seemed so far away) I sold my ARG (to buy more Grrrhhhh )
Some of that I tipped into a few more EBO shares - I do rash things from time to time.
So EBO is now slightly more than 10% of the portfolio and that is enough.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
That was 14-Sep-16 when I posted that.
Short term that turned out to be a great move. Hopefully long term too.
Subsequently I have sold all of my GMT, KPG & SPG as well, and own nothing in this sector. Again a good short-term move.
Basically I see much more downside than upside to listed property and am churning the money into likely looking ASX listed small/medium caps & (more importantly) foreign travel over Xmas & New Year.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
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ARG NTA as at balance date was $1.04. Taking into account interest rate decreases since then I'd expect their current NTA with a slightly more favourable market capitalisation rate on their building lease income to be approx. $1.06-$1.07 so its basically trading at or slightly below NTA now.
The stripey one could well be right that it could correct below NTA but I am happy to hold a modest position for the dividend yield.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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NZ prop stocks down through 60 and 200DMA, RYM and co close behind.Same in AUS. Where this downward trend will end may take a while. Will keep a watch for the bend at the end of the trend.
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Will ARG be impacted by NZ Post House still being largely unoccupied since the earthquakes? Note that Kiwibank had moved out of that building. Not sure if losses will be covered by ARGs insurance cover?
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Originally Posted by JeremyALD
Will ARG be impacted by NZ Post House still being largely unoccupied since the earthquakes? Note that Kiwibank had moved out of that building. Not sure if losses will be covered by ARGs insurance cover?
Understand floors Kiwibank occupied covered in asbestos and when / if they return it wont be to next year
Just street talk
Hopefully ARG covered.
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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Interesting noting more divestments and reinvestments in today's announcement.
Positive they have made a new "mutually benefical long term relationship."
Interesting partner,with a growing NZ foot print.
Last edited by percy; 13-11-2018 at 08:44 PM.
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Originally Posted by percy
Interesting noting more divestments and reinvestments in today's announcement.
Positive they have made a new "mutually benefical long term relationship."
Interesting partner,with a growing NZ foot print.
Sale prices and premium to NTA of the regional properties sold was exceptional. Leasing land out at a 5% return is something I'm not especially keen to see them doing no matter who they are leasing it too.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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In that case buy more shares in ARG's partner's listed company.
NB.I believe ARG's partner brought the $8.6mil Wiri site for $4mil in 2015.
A very healthy development margin.!!!!..lol.
Last edited by percy; 13-11-2018 at 10:15 PM.
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