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  1. #541
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Waltzing View Post
    market seems to be looking out past next year...

    winner(n) you may be right .
    Markets always forward looking .... even if they can't predict the future
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  2. #542
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    Winner(n) US 10 YR restarting to move up tonight..

    a day later and its heading down below 2.9.

    Pricing in a recession and that means defensive stocks like ARG are Winners?
    Last edited by Waltzing; 06-07-2022 at 07:49 AM.

  3. #543
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Waltzing View Post
    Winner(n) US 10 YR restarting to move up tonight..

    a day later and its heading down below 2.9.

    Pricing in a recession and that means defensive stocks like ARG are Winners?
    I reccon it depends.

    If inflation and interest rates go up, REITS will keep going down.

    If inflation and interest rates go down, REITS will go up;

    If inflation stays but RB too timid to keep rising rates, we might move towards the Japanese model of stagflation. Good for nothing.

    Take your pick.
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  4. #544
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    with the RBNZ now advertising for advisors with out economic degrees who needs statistical data sets from the economy.

    chance of political agendas effecting OCR rates is possible if social issues are placed at the heart RBA decisions.

    Some inflation fears appear to be abating slowly.

    markets price ahead by several years and thats why there is the P/E ratio.

    NAT GAS and WTI are trending down.

    Winner(n) called it.
    Last edited by Waltzing; 06-07-2022 at 10:57 AM.

  5. #545
    Guru Rawz's Avatar
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    High inflation leads to higher property prices sooner or later.

  6. #546
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rawz View Post
    High inflation leads to higher property prices sooner or later.
    We already have the higher property prices Rawz , that's the fuel for inflation later will be long time

  7. #547
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    well out performed the market must be the darling of the pack...

    LEK's chart will show the big picture.

    the US 10 yr is wobbling around for all sorts of reasons, recession, inflation its as if it doesnt known which direction to go.
    Last edited by Waltzing; 12-07-2022 at 09:14 AM.

  8. #548
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    off with some good trading support today. Should be lower with a higher yield curve but NOOOO!!!

  9. #549
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    Interesting close today at $1.33, up 5c, albeit now a significant gap between buyers at $1.285 and sellers at $1.34, large for a relatively liquid share in this price range. Not dissimilar for ARV which I also hold, close at $1.46, up 3c on the day with buyers at $1.42 and sellers at $1.46. You could infer from recent price action in both cases that momentum is positive rather than negative, thou ARG's pie yield has now dipped to just below 5%.

    I did note that Graeme Hart has just achieved a record m2 rental on a largish industrial property near the airport. I like the thesis that existing buildings/developments cannot be replicated currently at past costs so are a natural hedge against inflation (though not against rising interest rates). There is still a real gap between current pricing and the last notified NTA at $1.74 so where to from here?

  10. #550
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    Ten YR US moved back under 3 rapidly..

    NZ Ten moving back also

    http://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/...%20last%20year.

    who desnt track these at the moment...

    doesnt mean in the next 2 years these stocks will rally until inflation is moving the other way and OCR also cuts back..

    Winner is a big BALIV'A in yield curves
    Last edited by Waltzing; 26-07-2022 at 09:20 PM.

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