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  1. #41
    percy
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    Sorry I am enjoying myself too much to be perfect...!

    ps Also got the 3 years wrong.
    The $4 mil profit was over 2 years.
    Wonder you did not pick that up too.?
    Last edited by percy; 14-11-2018 at 11:35 AM.

  2. #42
    Hunting for more dog food Beagle's Avatar
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    See #38 Percy. I did pick it up and yes a $3.8m gain in just over 2 years less transaction costs suggests TRA bought extremely well at the time. Its also suggest that the current cap rates on industrial property have hit a new low point which is supportive of my contention we will see a cracking interim result for ARG next week.
    More to the point with this thread is the whopping 25% premium ARG got on their El Prado drive property in Palmerston North, such a big premium above independent registered valuation as at 31 March 2018. https://www.nzx.com/announcements/326751

    Also worthy of a mention is yet another very high caliber appointment to ARG's board announced today http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...816/290417.pdf I must say their leadership team and board really impress with their depth of experience.
    If they paid such a price for the 160 Roscommon road acquisition there's probably a good reason for that but it can't hurt to ask them at the next investor day.
    Last edited by Beagle; 14-11-2018 at 12:13 PM.
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  3. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by JeremyALD View Post
    Will ARG be impacted by NZ Post House still being largely unoccupied since the earthquakes? Note that Kiwibank had moved out of that building. Not sure if losses will be covered by ARGs insurance cover?
    ....And from Winner. “Understand floors Kiwibank occupied covered in asbestos and when / if they return it wont be to next year

    Just street talk

    Hopefully ARG covered”

    Was this resolved ? Could it still impact ARG ?
    Anyone know ? Considering buying some.

  4. #44
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    In regards to Wiri - widely accepted market return on land is 5%. Rent of $430,000, pa ($27/sqm) - broadly reflective of industrial yard rents.

    15 year lease with fixed rental growth. Strong tenant. Looks good to me.

    Also establishes that relationship whereby the site could be developed down the track for Turners.

    discl - long time holder of ARG.

  5. #45
    percy
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fred_Rubble View Post
    In regards to Wiri - widely accepted market return on land is 5%. Rent of $430,000, pa ($27/sqm) - broadly reflective of industrial yard rents.

    15 year lease with fixed rental growth. Strong tenant. Looks good to me.

    Also establishes that relationship whereby the site could be developed down the track for Turners.

    discl - long time holder of ARG.
    The site has already been developed by Turners to suit their requirements.
    A very prominent corner site,ideal for Turners Trucks and Equipment sales.
    Having established a trading history there, Turners know what rent they are prepared to pay,otherwise they would have kept it.
    Last edited by percy; 14-11-2018 at 02:16 PM.

  6. #46
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    Is the property they brought not 133 Roscommon Road? - maybe where the confusion of good/bad buy is emanating.

    https://www.colliers.co.nz/news/2018...ture%20upside/

  7. #47
    Hunting for more dog food Beagle's Avatar
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    Details details...133 Roscommon road and 160...just 20% difference, who cares
    Last edited by Beagle; 14-11-2018 at 03:00 PM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  8. #48
    percy
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    Love it.
    Caught out.
    The Trucks must be at 160 not 133.
    160 is the better site.
    Thanks Fred and Beagle.
    Good price for 133.
    Wonder what 160 would be worth.?
    Last edited by percy; 14-11-2018 at 03:02 PM.

  9. #49
    Hunting for more dog food Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    Love it.
    Caught out.
    The Trucks must be at 160 not 133.
    160 is the better site.
    Thanks Fred and Beagle.
    Good price for 133.
    Wonder what 160 would be worth.?
    Going off the difference in the government values as recorded by Council (133 Roscommon road $6.1m and 160 $5.65m) its well under your 20% margin of error so no difference lol.

    Anyway...getting back to more serious business. I think their NTA to be reported next week as at 30 Sept 2018 will be at least $1.15, (you read it from me first) and trading cum a 1.56 cps PIE (tax exempt) dividend next month at $1.10 this is pretty safe value buying in a volatile world so I topped up this afternoon.
    Interestingly the gain on the property sales announced yesterday on their own add nearly 1 cps to the NTA taking it to just over $1.13. Add in commentary from the company in their most recent presentation in late October that industrial yields have fallen and factor in the extent of this as indicated by recent sales and provided there is no major exogenous shock to the market $1.10 cum divvy looks a bit too cheap to me.
    Last edited by Beagle; 14-11-2018 at 04:27 PM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  10. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    Love it.
    Caught out.
    The Trucks must be at 160 not 133.
    160 is the better site.
    Thanks Fred and Beagle.
    Good price for 133.
    Wonder what 160 would be worth.?
    160 much better isn't it - 133 elongated shape not the best, but good income for 15 years.

    Many thanks to both of you for the many great comments I have read over the years from you both.

    Looking forward to the ARG results.

  11. #51
    percy
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    Well team the fun continues..Roscommon Road ia a popular road for TRA to buy properties.
    10th September 2015 announcement...TRA buy property in Roscommon Road for.................. ....$4 mil........................................[Must be No.133]
    3rd August 2016 announcement....TRA buy property cnr Roscommon Road and Vogler Street for $4.8mil........................................[Must be No.160]
    13th November 2018.ARG announce they have brought a property in Roscommon Road from TRA for $8.6mil...yes you guessed it.....[Must be No.133]
    So TRA buy 133 Roscommon Road for 4mil, and three years later sell it with lease back for 15 years at $8.6mil. Win win situation for happy "partners."

  12. #52
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    Well team the fun continues..Roscommon Road ia a popular road for TRA to buy properties.
    10th September 2015 announcement...TRA buy property in Roscommon Road for.................. ....$4 mil........................................[Must be No.133]
    3rd August 2016 announcement....TRA buy property cnr Roscommon Road and Vogler Street for $4.8mil........................................[Must be No.160]
    13th November 2018.ARG announce they have brought a property in Roscommon Road from TRA for $8.6mil...yes you guessed it.....[Must be No.133]
    So TRA buy 133 Roscommon Road for 4mil, and three years later sell it with lease back for 15 years at $8.6mil. Win win situation for happy "partners."
    Interesting ... just wondering based on this set of data: Who of the both companies appears to be the better property investor?

    ARG any good in selling cars?
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  13. #53
    percy
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Interesting ... just wondering based on this set of data: Who of the both companies appears to be the better property investor?

    ARG any good in selling cars?
    If you can find the history of Dorcester Pacific Property some where, you will see just how clever Paul Bryne was is returning capital to investors from a rat bag collection of 3rd rate properties. One of the main reasons I invested in TRA.
    From what I can gather ARG are very astute property investors,and are happy to leave car sales to others.
    I do note a lot of ChCh successful property investors are ex car dealers.
    Last edited by percy; 15-11-2018 at 10:04 AM.

  14. #54
    Hunting for more dog food Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    Well team the fun continues..Roscommon Road ia a popular road for TRA to buy properties.
    10th September 2015 announcement...TRA buy property in Roscommon Road for.................. ....$4 mil........................................[Must be No.133]
    3rd August 2016 announcement....TRA buy property cnr Roscommon Road and Vogler Street for $4.8mil........................................[Must be No.160]
    13th November 2018.ARG announce they have brought a property in Roscommon Road from TRA for $8.6mil...yes you guessed it.....[Must be No.133]
    So TRA buy 133 Roscommon Road for 4mil, and three years later sell it with lease back for 15 years at $8.6mil. Win win situation for happy "partners."
    I'm getting dizzy lol.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  15. #55
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    Assuming the land is still worth $4m as per Turners paid in 2015 for 133 Roscommon.

    Simple present val calc of the growing rental income (2.5% pa) over 15 years = $4,539,559.

    Total = $8,539,559 - not far off. Maybe some land value growth in there since 2015?

    Win/win I deduce. ARG gets long term tenant security - good result for portfolio WALE and good tenant covenant.

    TRA occupy the site they want to occupy without having capital locked in the land.

  16. #56
    percy
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fred_Rubble View Post
    Assuming the land is still worth $4m as per Turners paid in 2015 for 133 Roscommon.

    Simple present val calc of the growing rental income (2.5% pa) over 15 years = $4,539,559.

    Total = $8,539,559 - not far off. Maybe some land value growth in there since 2015?

    Win/win I deduce. ARG gets long term tenant security - good result for portfolio WALE and good tenant covenant.

    TRA occupy the site they want to occupy without having capital locked in the land.
    Bit more fun for you.
    TRA buy property for $4 mil sell it for $8.6 mil,repay the $4mil they borrowed to buy the property,and use the profit [$4.6mil] to pay the rent for the next 15 years.
    lol.
    Last edited by percy; 15-11-2018 at 02:10 PM.

  17. #57
    Hunting for more dog food Beagle's Avatar
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    But under the new accounting standard accounting for lease obligations that comes into effect in due course, future lease costs are accounted for as liabilities so they've actually made nothing on their balance sheet but will record a profit in their profit and loss statement, probably above the line as ordinary profit from operations knowing them. TRA seem quite good at this sort of creative accounting...I seem to recall a list of unusual and extraordinary items that Snoopy said quite significantly bolstered their FY18 result. Judging by their SP still in the deep doldrums it would appear they may need the help for the FY19 year.
    Disc: Own stakes in both companies but a LOT more ARG than TRA.
    Last edited by Beagle; 15-11-2018 at 02:57 PM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  18. #58
    percy
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    A sizable profit however it is accounted for by our resident Beagles..
    Last edited by percy; 15-11-2018 at 03:41 PM.

  19. #59
    Hunting for more dog food Beagle's Avatar
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    Not sure what Mr Market is trying to tell us about vehicle retailers at present and what to make of it all but one thing is for sure, they all need buildings and sites to work from so ARG gets a tick as a safe place to hide from this choppy and volatile market.
    TRA not the only one to be in deep doggy doo territory, check out the chart of the big listed car retailer AHG on the Aussie market. Ouch that looks like an ugly pig dog with mange.
    On the other hand Colonial Motors keeps on trucking on like the big rig Kenworth trucks they sell.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  20. #60
    percy
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    I can't wait for TRA's interim result on the 27th November.
    I am sure it will show their business model is on track.
    Comparing AHG with TRA is a bit like comparing AOG with OCA.
    Interesting maybe,but little if any correlation.
    Last edited by percy; 15-11-2018 at 04:52 PM.

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