MFB - My Food Bag

[Muse]

A mildly contrary view. Maiden dividend mentioned for December. New and big Christchurch distribution centre on the way. Small recent price rises. Online shopping spiking due to, you know, and some new customers will stick.

May be a buying opportunity. Or not.

Aye I think it could be. I bought a small parcel recently.

Personally I think if something goes amiss it will be on margins & costs. I think they will hit their revenue targets. But DYOR.

[stoploss]

The instos aren’t particularly fond of them at the moment after they got put over a barrel. Plus depends on the asset so maybe in a few years after MFB forgotten or comes right (could happen). They have provincial education (not a goer), PBT Freight (maybe), Canopy Healthcare (radiology is hot but sector struggling a bit), NZ Clinical Research (probably the best shot at an ipo in a few years), Fusion 5 (not a chance). Also in an old fund have a small stake in Healthcare holdings which is solid but will never list with dominant long term other shareholders, and final Partners Life who they invested with Maui Capital and Blackstone. Partners Life are always harping on about an IPO but there is always some industry issue holding them back. If asked to invest into that Id rather chunder in my mouth and swallow than write out a cheque.

They don't necessarily need to float they sold ,ACG & Manuka Health to private equity ,plus trade sales of Express logistics and Healthlink.

[Muse]

They don't necessarily need to float they sold ,ACG & Manuka Health to private equity ,plus trade sales of Express logistics and Healthlink.

Yup you are right there.

[winner69]

No need to panic .... all on track

Good buy today

The Board is in the position to reaffirm its FY22 revenue and earnings forecast, as outlined in the PFI
provided to investors in connection with the IPO. The Board also reconfirms that it intends to declare an
interim dividend to be paid in December.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...992/356974.pdf

[Balance]

No need to panic .... all on track

Good buy today

The Board is in the position to reaffirm its FY22 revenue and earnings forecast, as outlined in the PFI
provided to investors in connection with the IPO. The Board also reconfirms that it intends to declare an
interim dividend to be paid in December.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...992/356974.pdf

May give the sp a lift, to be sold down again later in the month when the lack of sex appeal wears down the stock again.

Maybe the directors & management could show their commitment by buying heaps of shares? Like lots & lots since it must be so very cheap compared to the $1.85 they helped to convince Mum & Dad investors to load up 6 months ago?

[Shareguy]

Looks positive but “caveat emptor” Thay say

In addition to those costs directly attributable to operating safely during higher Alert Levels, we have experienced inflationary pressure in recent months, particularly in ingredients and labour costs. We have sought to mitigate the impact of these higher costs through a price increase on selected Bags in early October.

My read is they won’t no for some time if the price increases have been successful without reducing demand..

[Beagle]

May give the sp a lift, to be sold down again later in the month when the lack of sex appeal wears down the stock again.

Maybe the directors & management could show their commitment by buying heaps of shares? Like lots & lots since it must be so very cheap compared to the $1.85 they helped to convince Mum & Dad investors to load up 6 months ago?

Exactly...talk is cheap !!!!

[Balance]

Exactly...talk is cheap !!!!

In this case, one suspects that there are quite a few punters who would like to return their shares & meals and get the directors and management to eat their IPO words.

[Muse]

Reading a new analyst report from Jarden this morning. Have reconfirmed their 1.80 TP and a few comments about how it is slightly ahead of their 1H revenue forecast. FY22E gross yield of 7%, net yield 5%, and FY23E net yield of 5.6%.

One item that sticks out is the 5% net yield. 5% is a magic number from JLM/retail/shareholder perspective as ultimately floats in the last year have all gravitated towards yield with all other implied valuation metrics a distant or forgotten consideration. Where the float went wrong (from my perspective) is the JLMs all fixated on the 5% yield but the WRONG yield - they thought 5% gross and 3.5% net was what the market was after when in fact what the market demanded was a 5% net yield. I think MFB is fairly price now at that metric.

[Ferg]

Do we know if MFB are delivering on their planned variable cost savings per the IPO? Or is that ancient history?