MFB - My Food Bag

[Balance]

Just as they were in Wynyard, Orion Health & CBL.

Stayed well clear of those three IPOs and it had nothing to do with luck or blindly following the 'smart' money.

Be discerning, my friend!

Everything though to do with pre-empting their move into a stock so they give your stock selections & investments a huge boost when they follow you!

[stoploss]

Looks pretty average at best... Hellofresh launched in NZ just a few years ago and has smashed MyFoodBag aside (already having $194m revenue in FY20 compared to MyFoodBag at $153.3m - no growth on FY19). Looks like a nice pump for FY21 numbers to try make IPO look better... but the numbers have confirmed growth story is a ??? that is for sure.
The way they've named/referred to the senior leadership team might make some a bit more excited I suppose

TJ where are you getting that number from for the Hello Fresh turnover ?

[winner69]

TJ where are you getting that number from for the Hello Fresh turnover ?

Hellofresh seeem pretty keen on telling people/press their sales numbers.

Herald article quoted 2020 Hsales $194m - up 159% from $75m prior year

And Hellofresh seem rapt in the last quarter sales being up 143% to $51.8m

Apparently Hellofresh spent $11m/$12m on advertising last year v MFB $5m odd - commentators say they have unlimited funds (accessing parents billions that means) to keep growing.

[artemis]

The IPO numbers clearly sell this at a premium with partial ideas for expansion. Seems very slow going in terms of growth, but their prize asset is their platform which they could on sell many other products, which they haven't done so yet. So far theres not really a strong moat around this and thats pretty threatening when you pay for a high valuation and potentially lose value when someone else might come and eat their lunch (or dinner), its my food bag till the school bullies come along. Though I hope it does well because the lack of quality NZ companies coming on the NZX is very slim and boring for me.

A couple of options have been dropped (wine and coffee) in the past, and various changes to offerings were made over the early covid period. Good to try out new things, even better to drop if not working. Indicates the company is open to ideas but watching carefully.

One aspect not too obvious from the outside is the impact MFB has on their suppliers, especially high end suppliers. Both from supplying product and exposure to a market with high disposable income. Culleys, for example, probably doing well. And top range meat suppliers.

I see this as an income stock but the world is seriously weird these days so who knows...

[Balance]

https://myfoodbagshareoffer.co.nz/Share-Offer-P2/

If anyone is prepared to invest in this company at the sort of multiples (high enterprise multiple, humongous PER & just about all goodwill on the balance sheet) being asked and scratchy pro-forma financial information being provided, I would suggest that there's plenty more value in the market already in some of the proven performing stocks.

EBITDA X F21 16.7X F22 13.9X
PER 28.7X 22.4X

Good on Waterman & other shareholders for supporting the business and taking it to where it is now - we need new businesses ideas and good people to be supported - so Congratulations to them but thanks, no thanks to this IPO.

[winner69]

Good to see Harbour Asset, Milford and ISG committing to 5% or more

Plenty of chatter about this great IPO ... that's good as well

[BlackPeter]

no doubt Theresa setting this up for an IPO ..... one day

Heck the way things are being valued this would have to be a billion dollar business ....maybe not a billion but a few hundred million at least

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=10870400

Just looking at the first post in this thread (11/3/2013): Your crystal ball was spot on, do you still have it? :

[winner69]

Just looking at the first post in this thread (11/3/2013): Your crystal ball was spot on, do you still have it? :

Crystal ball still here, somewhere

This IPO is going to be a real goer - thousands of 'foodee' shareholders will get the hype going

Looking forward to the ringing of the bell at the NZX at open on the day - that'll be exciting

Good timing as well - come May when they announce their first result they'll be able to say 'exceeded PDS forecasts' and even more exciting will be able to say 'new year sales are ahead of last year and we expect this to continue with F22 sales being ahead of forecast' -- see being tricky in forecasting F22 sales to be less than F21 allows you to look good.

All that hype and good news will see share price about $2.25 by end of June

And then ....... Metro Glass come to mind

[BlackPeter]

Crystal ball still here, somewhere

This IPO is going to be a real goer - thousands of 'foodee' shareholders will get the hype going

Looking forward to the ringing of the bell at the NZX at open on the day - that'll be exciting

Good timing as well - come May when they announce their first result they'll be able to say 'exceeded PDS forecasts' and even more exciting will be able to say 'new year sales are ahead of last year and we expect this to continue with F22 sales being ahead of forecast' -- see being tricky in forecasting F22 sales to be less than F21 allows you to look good.

All that hype and good news will see share price about $2.25 by end of June

And then ....... Metro Glass come to mind

Ouch ... but I recon you well might be right :

Maybe we should already earmark some cash to buy into My Food bag around 18 to 19 cents per share? Based on the Metro PG Experience one tenth of the IPO price (IPO I think around $1.75, Rock bottom between 15 and 16 cents) seems to have been a good price ;

[winner69]

Good of them to show some half year numbers

Sales April to September last year up 36% on pcp

But forecast sales October 20 to March 21 only up 11% on pcp

Was April/September increase covid stay at home impact they talk about

Boost hasn't carried over post lockdown


If so H121 sales could be a challenge to meet last years numbers ....hmmm