MFB - My Food Bag

[Balance]

Shareclarity had a valuation of $1.32 before it was pulled because of jardens purchase of a share in share clarity. I don't use share clarity so I can only go by the article I read.
2. I don't own shares in mfb due to thinking it was over valued on ipo.
3.so I did do my research.
4 it's Friday. No need to be grumpy. Lol

It has not been pulled, Jardens has not bought into Shareclarity so you are relying 100% on a news article to make your decisions and comments!

Chill, Dlownz - I am not been grumpy but hope to guide you to becoming a better assessor of information.

[stoploss]

Shareclarity had a valuation of $1.32 before it was pulled because of jardens purchase of a share in share clarity. I don't use share clarity so I can only go by the article I read.
2. I don't own shares in mfb due to thinking it was over valued on ipo.
3.so I did do my research.
4 it's Friday. No need to be grumpy. Lol

It has free info on the page , so no need to be a user .
https://www.shareclarity.com/company...?ticker=MFB.NZ

[winner69]

Trading in the red now. Too much overhang from IPO, too many peps sitting on losses wanting out and looking for any opportunity to sell.

This was going to be the day when shareprice soared over 2 bucks

But that load mouthed idiotic CEO put paid to that saying IPO forecasts were a bit light

Carter should have fired him on spot

[Sir Ten]

Thought I'd get a few practice swings in on MFB before my proper 2pm tee-time.

This is going to be a slow train wreck - all the hallmarks of an over-hyped IPO:
- IPO brokers claiming it was over-sub'd when it was barely covered
- Insiders selling down on IPO
- Disingenuous (in my opinion anyway) post-IPO share purchases by directors (tiny parcels to arrest further free-fall)
- Management exits
- Management/insider commentary on forecast achievability off the mark
- Minimal new growth capital raised with significant portion going to IPO fees
- Growth forecasts they're struggling to outperform by any material amount
- A historical period that significantly bolstered their numbers - the maintenance of which, is weighted to the downside
- Higher probability of more competition, rather than less
- Limited ability to scale outside of domestic market (if they ever do, you should be worried)
- Limited new product development

This is a $1 stock. Then it's more interesting as a risk-adjusted yield opportunity - even then, I'd struggle to part with my cash by virtue of the fact I think it's a farce.

[Rawz]

Proforma NPAT FY21 $16.7m. 242.4M shares. EPS 0.0688.
Trading at $1.47 right now. PE 21.36.

66,492 active customers. There are 1,300,000 households in NZ. Seems like it could grow quite a bit more.

End of the day they beat the prospectus forecasts. It's not all bad. If price drops down to $1-$1.20 range I would be interested.

[Lola]

thought i'd get a few practice swings in on mfb before my proper 2pm tee-time.

This is going to be a slow train wreck - all the hallmarks of an over-hyped ipo:
- ipo brokers claiming it was over-sub'd when it was barely covered
- insiders selling down on ipo
- disingenuous (in my opinion anyway) post-ipo share purchases by directors (tiny parcels to arrest further free-fall)
- management exits
- management/insider commentary on forecast achievability off the mark
- minimal new growth capital raised with significant portion going to ipo fees
- growth forecasts they're struggling to outperform by any material amount
- a historical period that significantly bolstered their numbers - the maintenance of which, is weighted to the downside
- higher probability of more competition, rather than less
- limited ability to scale outside of domestic market (if they ever do, you should be worried)
- limited new product development

this is a $1 stock. Then it's more interesting as a risk-adjusted yield opportunity - even then, i'd struggle to part with my cash by virtue of the fact i think it's a farce.

correct on every point except its not a farce its much worse.

[Balance]

1.44

Ma and Pa investors right now:

Choking on the latest MFB recipe of lemon & foul smelling kimchi cabbage?

[Getty]

1.44

Ma and Pa investors right now:

Is the takeout from that pic, that the bloke was short sighted?

Looks like he's taken a good & short haircut anyway.

[Getty]

Is that you left carrying the bag, of poor old Mr Tea?

[Ferg]

Good on MFB for beating their prospectus **cough prospectus not sandbagged cough** but I am disappointed to not see any of the meal stats that were included in the prospectus, in particular meal volumes. The presentation has 4m meals delivered but that is more than the previous 3 years per the prospectus so I'm not sure what that number means.

They have reaffirmed their 2022 forecast from the prospectus which is good. They now need to deliver on variable cost savings; their glossy presentation seems to be making the right noises about procurement and contribution margin. Contribution Margin in FY20 was ~21%, FY21 actual was ~25.5% which has them on track to the ~29% margin for FY22 per the prospectus.

Assuming they meet their 2022 NPAT of $20m that is EPS of ~8.3c, which based on todays SP of $1.42 is a P/E ratio of around 17.

Target dividend payout is $16m or about 6.6c per share; assuming full imputation credits put this at 9.17c per share. Based on the SP of $1.47 this is a pre tax dividend yield of 6.2%.