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Synlait Farms Limited (SNLF)
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Synlait Farms Company Profile, 2012 Audited Annual Report and Constitution
https://www.unlisted.co.nz/Members/u...cement_id=2184
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Member
Market in Synlait
Originally Posted by Armillary Private Capital
Looks like a market is slowly establishing in Synlait Farms. Opening offer was $1.15 with a bid appearing last Thursday at $0.65 . Today a fresh buy order has been placed for 10,000 shares at $0.75c. Bid / offer spread is still very wide but I suppose it is still early days.
With a NAV of $1.45 both buyers are obviously trying to buy $1's worth of assets for around $0.50c.
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Member
It will be interesting to see if the recent trend of higher dairy prices , especially WMP , will continue at tonights auction on the GDT Platform.
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Member
Dairy prices thru the roof
Originally Posted by FarmerHamilton
It will be interesting to see if the recent trend of higher dairy prices , especially WMP , will continue at tonights auction on the GDT Platform.
Amazing , up another double digit gain and prices in NZ$ terms now up 50% in 2013. Synlait Farms could make some serious dough in 2013/14 season with a payout back above $7.00 !! The buyers at 75c & 65c may need to pay up to get any. Interesting to see if the $1.15 seller moves there price up after yet another spectacular auction result.
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From their 2012 accounts, they had a NP of $3,126k and have shares on issue of 40,802,871 so earnings per share of 7.6c per share. Apply a P/E of 10 gives you 76c per share or 15 = 1.15.
So looks like buyers and sellers have a different view of what P/E should be applied - I have no idea what it should be either. Good to have it listed, even if it is on the "unlisted".
FarmerHamilton - I wild assumption I know but are you are farmer from Hamilton?? What is your view on the financials and a fair price for the shares. Looking at the NTA is misguided in my view as unless you are liquidating, the key metric is earnings/cashflow/dividends??? Cashflows from operations look to be strong at over $6m.
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Member
Originally Posted by CJ
From their 2012 accounts, they had a NP of $3,126k and have shares on issue of 40,802,871 so earnings per share of 7.6c per share. Apply a P/E of 10 gives you 76c per share or 15 = 1.15.
So looks like buyers and sellers have a different view of what P/E should be applied - I have no idea what it should be either. Good to have it listed, even if it is on the "unlisted".
FarmerHamilton - I wild assumption I know but are you are farmer from Hamilton?? What is your view on the financials and a fair price for the shares. Looking at the NTA is misguided in my view as unless you are liquidating, the key metric is earnings/cashflow/dividends??? Cashflows from operations look to be strong at over $6m.
Like the listed property stocks I think NTA is important because it gives you a good starting point. Dairy farms have never yielded as much as commercial property but like owning a building in downtown Auckland with Synlait's 14,000 cows sending off their milk daily they get a monthly "rent cheque" from Synlait Milk. Each producing hectare has a value and each cow has a value. Added up at recent valuations and Synlait's are according to the presentation worth $1.45/share.
The company is a play on rising commodity ( protein ) demand and prices. At a $7.50 payout the company will earn probably twice as much as at a $6.50 payout so there is real leverage to rising commodity prices. These dairy auction results must be music to managements ears I would have thought.
Value ... I would have thought that with a fair chance of doubling of earnings in the next 12 months and at a 30c discount to NAV ( 20% ) $1.15 looks reasonable value. 75c I would say would be a fantastic buy.
Last edited by FarmerHamilton; 03-04-2013 at 10:38 AM.
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Member
My unlisted "quote sheet" page is blank , anyone else no what is going on over there today?
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Originally Posted by FarmerHamilton
Like the listed property stocks I think NTA is important because it gives you a good starting point.
In part but listed property stocks are valued on their yield. Variations occur due to debt levels, quality of buildings/tenants etc. The two (NTA and yeild) maybe confused as the value of a building is linked directly to its rental yield - an increase in NTA will be due to an increase in rental yield.
So at earnings of 7.6c per share, and a dividend policy of say 90% and a target yeild of 8% gives you a SP of 85c. If their profit doubles as you suggest, the that price will also double.
Edit: I am not sure what their dividend policy or whether they plan to distribute or use excess funds to pay down debt or expand.
Last edited by CJ; 03-04-2013 at 11:48 AM.
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