Synlait Farms Limited (SNLF)

[FarmerHamilton]

Annual review here:

http://www.unlisted.co.nz/uPublic/un...cement_id=2260

$1.30 / $1.70 , where's my double-decker London bus !!

[FarmerHamilton]

$1.30 / $1.70 , where's my double-decker London bus !!

$1.50 / $1.60 last at $1.50.

Stock up 50% since listing ...


Disc; hold 155,000 SNLF

[Joshuatree]

Sold @$3.08 . Needed funds for a new opp.Good future for SYNLAIT methinks. Cheers for now

[FarmerHamilton]

Your talking Synlait Milk ... nice profit , I keep selling dribs and drabs but my total holding in $$ keeps going up ! GREAT !!

[FarmerHamilton]

$1.55 traded last week in 10,000 size. Stock up 55% since first trade back in May, quite a performance.

Back of the envelope stuff working out the P&L and eps from the new Fonterra $7.80 payout announced last week.

I know the season has started spectacularly , 65% of the cows were calved last weekend so i am assuming now they will be at 75-80% which means milk production will be way ahead of forecast for August and given where they will be today , September. The weather gods have been very very kind over recent weeks and pasture production is looking fantastic

Assume 5%-7% production growth for the season gives 5.6kgMS

Assume a margin of $2/kgMS ( giving a cost of production including interest and depreciation of $5.50 as SML payout is typically 30c less than Fonterra due to no shares needing to be held )

P&L of $11.2m ....

EPS of 27.5c ( 40.8m shares outstanding )

P/E of 8 = shareprice of $2.20

Current shareprice of $1.55 is a 2013/14 forecast P/E of 5.64 on my numbers ... v cheap !!

Disc: hold 155,000 SNLF

[FarmerHamilton]

$1.55 traded last week in 10,000 size. Stock up 55% since first trade back in May, quite a performance.

Back of the envelope stuff working out the P&L and eps from the new Fonterra $7.80 payout announced last week.

I know the season has started spectacularly , 65% of the cows were calved last weekend so i am assuming now they will be at 75-80% which means milk production will be way ahead of forecast for August and given where they will be today , September. The weather gods have been very very kind over recent weeks and pasture production is looking fantastic

Assume 5%-7% production growth for the season gives 5.6kgMS

Assume a margin of $2/kgMS ( giving a cost of production including interest and depreciation of $5.50 as SML payout is typically 30c less than Fonterra due to no shares needing to be held )

P&L of $11.2m ....

EPS of 27.5c ( 40.8m shares outstanding )

P/E of 8 = shareprice of $2.20

Current shareprice of $1.55 is a 2013/14 forecast P/E of 5.64 on my numbers ... v cheap !!

Disc: hold 155,000 SNLF

Synlait Milk just announced their forecast payout for 2013/14 season of ........... $8.00kgMS

My assumptions above might be way too conservative !!!

[FarmerHamilton]

Synlait Milk just announced their forecast payout for 2013/14 season of ........... $8.00kgMS

My assumptions above might be way too conservative !!!

$1.60 trades ( 10k ) ... best offer now $1.85 for 30,000 shares

[Armillary Private Capital]

New issuer profile up for SNLF:

http://www.unlisted.co.nz/uPublic/un...cement_id=2270

[FarmerHamilton]

$8.30 payout forecast now from Fonterra ... Synlait Farms should have a very very good year. Lets hope no one from Team NZ works for them so they don't manage to lose $10m bucks somehow from a winning position !!!!

[CAM]

Any of their farms impacted by the big blow that wiped out the irrigation?
If so they could be up for a few dollars in feed.....