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  1. #321
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    And whilst the market might make that value, it would be a significant fall in cashflow before VIL actually books an impairment to goodwill unless their WACC gets to something like the original acquisition prices.

    At which point, it would be approaching break up value!

  2. #322
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rep View Post
    And whilst the market might make that value, it would be a significant fall in cashflow before VIL actually books an impairment to goodwill unless their WACC gets to something like the original acquisition prices.

    At which point, it would be approaching break up value!
    For a laugh i did the old z-Altman insolvency predictor thing

    Score 0.8 and if ignore the $26m of retained/cumulative losses its 1.6

    Credit guru says - Z-SCORE BELOW 1.80- Probability of Financial embarassment is very high. (I always add UNLESS DRASTIC ACTION TO FIX THINGS IS TAKEN)

    Bankers running the company I reckon.
    Last edited by winner69; 27-02-2016 at 10:27 AM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  3. #323
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    For a laugh i did the old z-Altman insolvency predictor thing

    Score 0.8 and if ignore the $26m of retained/cumulative losses its 1.6

    Credit guru says - Z-SCORE BELOW 1.80- Probability of Financial embarassment is very high. (I always add UNLESS DRASTIC ACTION TO FIX THINGS IS TAKEN)

    Bankers running the company I reckon.
    If they aren't then unless they make some major operating improvements then just a matter of time before bank says enough.

  4. #324
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    ....and in the case of verItas the market says that is about $48m at the moment
    I'd get a valuation a far bit lower on my calculations, which are simplified into the buffet thinking of risk free rate etc..

  5. #325
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    Yeap, make no mistake this company is trading at the behest of its bankers and is presently technically insolvent, (current liabilities due in the next 12 months exceed current assets).
    Bank calling in PWC can reasonably be interpreted that they've lost confidence in the directors and management.
    Binary event coming here folks depending on the outcome of the PWC report and its recommendations. On one hand receivership and on the other limping along and trying to make a go of things after more restructuring and even more heavy "one off' provisioning costs and "one-off" restructuring costs and not to forget the potentially very hefty "one-off" PWC consulting costs. This company is a real mess and the only question is, is it very badly bent or broken completely... ANZ will be the one making the decision so I suppose it doesn't matter what we think.
    Disc: Don't own...too risky for me. PPL and this in receivership before Christmas...in that order, that's my prediction.
    Last edited by Beagle; 27-02-2016 at 04:16 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  6. #326
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Trying their hardest to resurrect the Burger King contract - eat humble pie and hope for the best?

    That's how I read this
    https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/231038.pdf
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  7. #327
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Trying their hardest to resurrect the Burger King contract - eat humble pie and hope for the best?

    That's how I read this
    https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/231038.pdf
    No resurrection over Easter (at least with Veritas)

    Winding the pattie business up

    That ends that little saga in Veritas's short history

    No problems - not a continuing business so wont impact profits or anything
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  8. #328
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    Didn't I hear the other day that yet another Mad Butcher store went into receivership...might have been on the radio ? Suppose that's another one-off so won't be counted above the line.

    They'll have to come up with a new sort of normalised EBITDA soon...suppose they could call it EBEFOREEVERYTHINGELSE

  9. #329
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger View Post
    Didn't I hear the other day that yet another Mad Butcher store went into receivership...might have been on the radio ? Suppose that's another one-off so won't be counted above the line.

    They'll have to come up with a new sort of normalised EBITDA soon...suppose they could call it EBEFOREEVERYTHINGELSE
    Mount Wellington. One and a half weeks ago.

  10. #330
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    Quote Originally Posted by janner View Post
    Mount Wellington. One and a half weeks ago.
    Thanks. I see they've sunk to yet another all time low.

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