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View Poll Results: NZX50 Level at Christmas 2022

Voters
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  • More than 15,000

    3 3.95%
  • 14,500-15,000

    2 2.63%
  • 14,000 - 14,500

    1 1.32%
  • 13,500-14,000

    5 6.58%
  • 13,000 - 13,500

    14 18.42%
  • 12,500-13,000

    13 17.11%
  • 12,000 - 12,500

    8 10.53%
  • 11,500-12,000

    13 17.11%
  • 11,000 - 11,500

    4 5.26%
  • Less than 11,000

    13 17.11%
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  1. #1
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Default Where do you forecast the NZX50 to be at by Christmas 2022 ?

    There's an old saying on Wall Street, "As goes January, so goes the rest of the year" and I've read its about 86% accurate for the US markets. Sadly, January here and in many overseas markets certainly hasn't started well so far that's for sure !

    After the worst year in a decade in 2021 surely we can't be on for another negative year in 2022 or could we ?

    With the obvious challenges of central bank stimulus around the world be wound back from record stimulatory level's, rising bond yields undermining equity valuations and persistent inflation its clear there are some significant headwinds affecting the market and that's before we even consider the effects of Omricon and any other variants that might pose challenges to the economy.

    We closed today at just on 12,600 and if my memory serves me correctly that's down a few hundred points already.

    So, where to from here and where to by Christmas ?

    This is a public poll and if I set it up correctly your user name will be recorded against your vote.

    I'm away for a few days but look forward to reading people's thoughts and votes and will post more of my own thoughts and vote in due course.

    Happy debating and voting
    Last edited by Beagle; 19-01-2022 at 09:08 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  2. #2
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2013
    Posts
    1,267

    Default

    The other Wall Street saying is "Don't fight the Fed". Increasing rates will put pressure on asset prices (which are currently at historical extremes and can only be justified on the assumption of zero rates for the next 100+ years).

    It's highly possible we will be in recession within 1-2 years due to increasing rates. My concern now is that has inflation been allowed to embed itself deep enough that we cannot use the strategy of lowering rates to ease the impacts of recession. Interesting times.

    ANZ out today forecasting OCR of 3% in April 2023. Got to take it with a grain of salt as we are in seriously unchartered waters, however if it gets to that asset prices across the board will be down minimum 20% in my opinion.

    I have made big portfolio changes in the last 4 months to anticipate this (cut many long positions apart from a core I have full confidence in, and added select short positions).
    Last edited by JohnnyTheHorse; 19-01-2022 at 08:37 PM.

  3. #3
    Senior Member
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    Wellington, , New Zealand.
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    755

    Default

    Just voted over 15,000 based on the trend over the last 3 years.
    2021 was a consolidation year.

  4. #4
    Advanced Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2021
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    Auckland
    Posts
    1,619

    Default

    Current forum consensus forecast (weighted average) forecast of 13,010.
    Assumed midpoints of each range (and max of 15250 and min of 10750 for convention)

  5. #5
    Permanent Newbie
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    Default

    Not usually aware of the index level but voted anyway.

    Less than 11,000. Got down to 9,200 in March 2020 but recovered after unprecedented central bank stimulus. Average people getting hurt by inflation may not be so easy next time investors ask for a decent yield when investing.

    Doom I tell you DOOOOM.

  6. #6
    Dilettante
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aaron View Post
    Not usually aware of the index level but voted anyway.

    Less than 11,000. Got down to 9,200 in March 2020 but recovered after unprecedented central bank stimulus. Average people getting hurt by inflation may not be so easy next time investors ask for a decent yield when investing.

    Doom I tell you DOOOOM.
    Hey Aaron, I love the sense of humour coming through in your posts through the years but also do note a consistent doomsday forecast in almost every year since we both joined ST in 2010. Do you mind me asking, have you bought any shares since then or are you still waiting for the BIG correction
    Last edited by iceman; 21-01-2022 at 08:56 AM.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by iceman View Post
    Hey Aaron, I love the sense of humour coming through in your posts through the years but also do note a consistent doomsday forecast in almost every year since we both joined ST in 2010. Do you mind me asking, have you bought any shares since then or are you still waiting for the BIG correction
    I am still waiting for the next leg down since 2009 and have missed the greatest bull run in history. Also waiting for the next leg down since March 2020.

    I have been buying doom stocks such a gold producers , I see in the herald this morning 3 of my holdings in the top three rises yesterday(NST, NCM, EVN). But conversely they could be the top three falls tomorrow. Faith based investing is very volatile.

    Have continued to own /picked up shares for yield such as Sanford, Spark, MCY, MMH(a bit speculative, caught up in Balances hype at the time but happy to hold) more recently AGL and KPG(many concerns with this, rising yields, internet retail, investing in residential at what might be the end of the boom. beagles posts, troyvdh post etc)

    Over this terrible time for me, central banks have continued to stymie my doom narrative with historically low interest rates and reckless money printing, and I think they will continue with more of the same but possibly not as good a result. My anger at central banks may show through in my posts on occasion.

    Still poor but can only blame myself really. Conservative investor looking for yield, need to be less scared of debt knowing the central bankers have my back.

    You never know I might be right one year out of 12, but the problem is I will be paralysed with fear if it does happen so will miss my once in a lifetime chance once again.
    Last edited by Aaron; 21-01-2022 at 09:29 AM.

  8. #8
    Dilettante
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    Default

    Great response

  9. #9
    Senior Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aaron View Post
    I am still waiting for the next leg down since 2009 and have missed the greatest bull run in history. Also waiting for the next leg down since March 2020.

    I have been buying doom stocks such a gold producers , I see in the herald this morning 3 of my holdings in the top three rises yesterday(NST, NCM, EVN). But conversely they could be the top three falls tomorrow. Faith based investing is very volatile.

    Have continued to own /picked up shares for yield such as Sanford, Spark, MCY, MMH(a bit speculative, caught up in Balances hype at the time but happy to hold) more recently AGL and KPG(many concerns with this, rising yields, internet retail, investing in residential at what might be the end of the boom. beagles posts, troyvdh post etc)

    Over this terrible time for me, central banks have continued to stymie my doom narrative with historically low interest rates and reckless money printing, and I think they will continue with more of the same but possibly not as good a result. My anger at central banks may show through in my posts on occasion.

    Still poor but can only blame myself really. Conservative investor looking for yield, need to be less scared of debt knowing the central bankers have my back.

    You never know I might be right one year out of 12, but the problem is I will be paralysed with fear if it does happen so will miss my once in a lifetime chance once again.
    You need a framework for understanding the cycles. I use the 20.5 year property cycle. It really helped me.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by clearasmud View Post
    You need a framework for understanding the cycles. I use the 20.5 year property cycle. It really helped me.
    I guess I should hold off on the doom narrative until 2025 as this might be more likely.

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