SeaDragon

[iceman]

[QUOTE=bobbells;476705]



You seem to be confusing sales decline/failure with processing issues. Often the two are unrelated. In any case, how can they not get stuff to process? Everywhere you turn in their releases they tell you they are about to cut a swathe through the US$30b omega-3 market. Yes, that's right, there's US$30b equivalent of raw materials out there. Everyone else is jamming their plant full of the stuff ... Mr magoo could find it. "

Bobbells where do you get that figure from ? My experience is that Omega 3 fish oil demand is very high and supply is not likely to go much higher than it currently is, due to most fish oil producing fisheries being fully utilised. This is keeping prices high for raw material for the likes of SeaDragon.
According to some industry information, the worldwide market for human use Omega 3 fish oil PRODUCTS is estimated to reach around 25.5 B Euro in 2016, up from 18.9 B Euro in 2011. Very different from your claim highlighted above !

[youngatheart]

I suspect he may have asked this lady to find it...
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=u8QGAJjGQbM

[jonu]

Confucious say "very unwise to grab a tiger by the tail"

[iceman]

You've unwittingly hit on the fatal flaw in the business model - a commodity sector where, paradoxically (if you are correct) raw materials are tight (unattainable in some cases apparently) and prices are high.

Go make that work.

Nothing unwitting about it. I have been saying consistently since I started following this thread that I think supply is the biggest risk to SeaDragon and I remain of that view. The industry is actually talking about "fish oil supply crisis" http://www.nutraingredients.com/Indu...ce-hike-at-DSM

[Balance]

Nothing unwitting about it. I have been saying consistently since I started following this thread that I think supply is the biggest risk to SeaDragon and I remain of that view. The industry is actually talking about "fish oil supply crisis" http://www.nutraingredients.com/Indu...ce-hike-at-DSM

Starting to sound like the cheese business.

Plenty of players in there so manufacturers get squeezed by high demand for raw materials (milk) and inability to pass on price increases!

[blah]

There are huge volumes of material available out there. Definitely limited potential for growth but the argument that they are raw material constrained is ludicrous - what it simply means is they can not pay the market price for the material. Raw material will go to those that can either command a higher price for finished product due to IP and/or those who can convert at a lower cost. Evidence suggests that SEA does neither.

Its like me saying I turned down $5 million in infant formula as I couldn't get supply. Never actually looked but if I could of got some cheap enough am sure I would have sold plenty!

Until there is evidence they can do either then it seems a little reckless building plants on a whim...

True and untrue at the same time. Yes there is plenty of fish waste, as there are many fish filleted onboard vessels and the other stuff is wasted (as in not used for anything else). At recent shareholder meetings, Keeley acknowledged at only fairly recently are the fishing companies/vessels , ie Talleys, Sealord, becoming aware there is value in the fish organs. So now they have gotten a more secure supply of fish livers (primarily Hoki) etc as commercial fisherpeople in NZ have realised value in otherwise garbage.

Also you blabber on about IP... I understand value add... but what does ?intellectual property? have anything to do here?

[blah]

Seriously??? They need to start IQ testing members when registering.. the first giveaway to intellect was the fact you had the time to attend a shareholder meeting... got the afternoon off from working drive thru at Macca's did you?

Anyone can add value ... if I peel a potato - it adds value... I am now selling a peeled potato! Adding value or differentiating without an element of Intellectual Property is useless. Doesn't have to be a patent - could be technology or process IP but if there is nothing you can offer then you better be the cheapest....

And gullible - wow..... you seriously believe that these fishing companies are oblivious to the "hidden gold" the are dumping over the side!? Lets bow down and praise Keeley as opening the eyes of the ignorant (albeit profitable) companies --- run by management unable to use the internet to discover the same!?

I am listing a company - Unicorn livestock next month - will send you a prospectus.

Thanks for offending the population of people who actually bother to attend shareholder meetings - as if it is somewhat unusual to do so... Also I wouldn't bother responding about my IQ, cause I'm confident enough about it and don't feel the need to prove it. Same goes to whether I actually work at Macca's or not.

I ask that question because clearly from your explanation, intellectual property wasn't really what you were referring to. You are referring to product differentiation, which IP might or might not contribute to - but are different concepts altogether.

Symantics aside, does Seadragon command any sort of product differentiation? Well depends on whether you want to believe it or not.
1. Balance noted above somewhere that there's a NZ clean green factor. Is this significant? Who knows. There might be an impression that NZ waters are not as polluted as waters elsewhere, leading to a lower concentration of heavy metals... I won't linger here, because I personally don't think it's that significant - but then again what is the reason why China likes NZ milk powder?
2. Sustainable fisheries. With a big environmental-sustainability push in people's mindset these days: perhaps this matters. The Hoki and Tuna catches that is used by Seadragon is certified by the Marine Stewardship Council as sustainable catches - it is said that no country has achieved such certification for 3 years in a row for which NZ has.
3. The majority of omega 3 that is produced by Seadragon is from hoki. Most of the omega 3 oils elsewhere are made from anchovies (from memory), which inherently is darker in colour - hoki oil is much lighter which is desired. Another point of differentiation.

I'm not sure I've convinced you of differentiation. But one only needs to go to the supermarket isles to see that a similarly sized bottle of Coca Cola sells for more than a bottle of Pepsi cola - they are inherently the same product, but differences are perceived rather than real.

In any case, differentiation of the oil is only one aspect of analyses. At the moment, Seadragon does not sell its oil to final consumers (other than to staff and shareholders) - but will in the future under its own brand. The value add (excl costs of going about adding value) seem quite attractive as you move down the chain. I will not put it on record here because I do not have perfect recall, and I don't think is mentioned anywhere to prove definitively. Again you might think I'm making this up - so be it.

The other thing is that the fish oils don't all go into pills or fortified food. There is also a substantial market in the form of cosmetics.

And regarding gullibility... well unless there is real reason to doubt it, there's no reason not to believe it. It doesn't seem all that implausible to me that commercial fishermen discard their waste. Although valuable to Seadragon, this waste is worth little to the fishing companies and hardly 'hidden gold'. I don't believe the raw material costs Seadragon all that much to buy given the value it generates - though I cannot substantiate this. When you finish eating a banana, you're going to chuck the banana skin away - despite the fact that you could potentially 'sell' it to someone who uses it to make fertiliser... not an overly implausible scenario. Anyway, the situation regarding raw materials is getting better as these fishermen are aware there's value in it.

OR maybe I'm just overly gullible and naive.

[iceman]

There appear to be a couple of new members to Sharetrader posting on this thread in rather a personally abusive manner. Please stick to the issues and refrain from personal abuse. Most of us are interested in divergent views and welcome them.

[percy]

There appear to be a couple of new members to Sharetrader posting on this thread in rather a personally abusive manner. Please stick to the issues and refrain from personal abuse. Most of us are interested in divergent views and welcome them.

Exactly Iceman.
I am really interested in learning about companies and their prospects.

[goldfish]

https://nzx.com/companies/SEA/announcements/250958

Good news!!