SeaDragon

[Apathy]

So what you are saying is that the background that a stock comes from does not matter?

Which means that parents who spend big bucks and put in huge efforts to put their children through good schools and universities are wasting their time - they are going to be assessed the same way as a graduate from a school/university well known for producing criminally inclined individuals.

Environment vs Genetics argument... the propensity for issues with back door listings is clearly very high and for that reason probably best avoided. And yes - if you want to go to town dressed like a hooker don't get upset if you get treated like one..... That said I don't believe that a backdoor listing and ethical behavior are mutually exclusive. These guys could have come in the front door and opinion would be the same.

[Apathy]

Some big calls there .... I think if you asked Comvita whether they expected SeaDragon to survive through to the end of next year, they might have something other to say than 'at the outside'. They would certainly have a different view as to whether they are in the habit of throwing out a hail Mary as part of their business plan.
There are some massive hurdles ahead, no question, but with unrefined tuna oil supply in place for 12 months and added capital secure (shareholder approval pending) one would have to think they have a better than 'outside' chance to see another year or more, with CVT in partnership.
Perhaps you have more knowledge about fish-oil refineries than you are letting on? Or have you seen a report on the standard, or lack of, that the rest of us have not seen? Again, big call. While management may no longer have your benefit of the doubt, the refinery deserves more than 6 months to prove itself, surely?

I would definitely hope they held a different opinion to mine! CVT got a great deal to come in and assuming they had same info as everyone else at the time would have been comfortable the discount married the risk. No one got what was promised so the rational behind the second tranche would have been quite different. Would they have put in $6m on day one for a company that has no sales and closed only business it ever had? Maybe they would have - I suspect not.
It has to be a hail Mary as where was plan B? major shareholders weren't stumping up, unlikely to get a second crack and the ma and pas and bank funds exhausted. Last years annual report came with note that all valuations were made on basis of successful fund raising - failure to raise capital would lead to significant review...

No significant expertise (in anything - let alone Fish Oil) but do research. Go check the GOED site and you get a list of the players and have a look at the facilities and offerings to get perspective on where SEA sits. Tuna is imported, Salmon (google fresh vs farmed for omega content info) isn't viable - the Hoki may be an option.

And talking Tuna supply - what does that mean? they had omega 2 supply for 18 months 24/7... where are the forecasts? committed to purchase, committed orders? Can't help but think they have a press release template where they just slot different products and issues into the gaps.

[Apathy]

Agree with you on SEA. I reckon VIT is a brave 'buy' call though...

Maybe - I like the CVT and Blackmores performance - these guys are in a growth field but only just playing at the edge of China so..
Accept that unlike the other two they don't have the 'boom product' to carry the range on.

[podg]

I have done some research and the facilities on GOED are well established. This one is just a newbie by comparison, so way too soon to judge on it's performance, don't you think? lets compare apples with apples, or oil with oil.
On the subject of performance, CVT has quite a record. And they consider omega-3 to be at the core of many products. I'll take their word over anyone else at this point. Their discount entry will only be worth something if the moves pays off. Thus, not a hail Mary. A funding plan that came with a highly regarded cornerstone shareholder? yes. If there was a plan B, it became immediately irrelevant when CVT came in. Seadragon is not the first company to have valuations based on funding and they wont be last. nothing new there.
And what does the tuna deal mean? it means they have a source of said supply for 12 months. Simple.
So, will they be here this time next year?? and on to the end of next year? better than 'outside' odds I reckon. I'm willing to put my money where my mouth is ....... are you?

[Apathy]

I have done some research and the facilities on GOED are well established. This one is just a newbie by comparison, so way too soon to judge on it's performance, don't you think? lets compare apples with apples, or oil with oil.
On the subject of performance, CVT has quite a record. And they consider omega-3 to be at the core of many products. I'll take their word over anyone else at this point. Their discount entry will only be worth something if the moves pays off. Thus, not a hail Mary. A funding plan that came with a highly regarded cornerstone shareholder? yes. If there was a plan B, it became immediately irrelevant when CVT came in. Seadragon is not the first company to have valuations based on funding and they wont be last. nothing new there.<br>
And what does the tuna deal mean? it means they have a source of said supply for 12 months. Simple. <br>
So, will they be here this time next year?? and on to the end of next year? better than 'outside' odds I reckon. I'm willing to put my money where my mouth is ....... are you?

<br>

Yes - all well established as over supply, depressed market and botanical alternatives have discouraged anyone from building new facilities. This plant is very rudimentary in terms of capability but yes - it can be built on.

I am assuming sales to CVT will be reported as related party transactions so we will soon be able to see how important it is. It is however impossible to imagine CVT demand putting even a small dent in capacity.

Making the Tuna supply announcement is a repeat of their shameless cycle - they just spent $11m on a new factory you would like to think they did so knowing supply not an issue!?

In terms of life expectancy - they can't survive without additional funds so they are there as long as CVT keeps putting money in. Its pretty clear from CVT price what their shareholders think of the last investment so what's their breaking point.... $3m/$6m/$9m?

You are operating on the theory that CVT will keep chucking money at it as there is no realistic chance of them being cash positive in the next 12 - 18 months - and that doesn't seem like a sound investment strategy.

[whatsup]

<br>

Yes - all well established as over supply, depressed market and botanical alternatives have discouraged anyone from building new facilities. This plant is very rudimentary in terms of capability but yes - it can be built on.

I am assuming sales to CVT will be reported as related party transactions so we will soon be able to see how important it is. It is however impossible to imagine CVT demand putting even a small dent in capacity.

Making the Tuna supply announcement is a repeat of their shameless cycle - they just spent $11m on a new factory you would like to think they did so knowing supply not an issue!?

In terms of life expectancy - they can't survive without additional funds so they are there as long as CVT keeps putting money in. Its pretty clear from CVT price what their shareholders think of the last investment so what's their breaking point.... $3m/$6m/$9m?

You are operating on the theory that CVT will keep chucking money at it as there is no realistic chance of them being cash positive in the next 12 - 18 months - and that doesn't seem like a sound investment strategy.

Apa, you are forgetting that the "new" factory had to be built because of the earth quake and S D took the opportunity to upgrade their facilities and add plenty of bells and whistles while they were at it .

[podg]

Really? How long have been reading minds Apathy? tell me, what am I thinking now? I am operating on no particular theory at all as it turns out. I am simply taking the view that Seadragon may well coat-tail CVT into various markets and customers. Indeed, some of CVT's products will include omega-3 refined be Seadragon. You may think CVT is ''chucking'' money at SEA, but, again, i'm sure they have a much more sophisticated plan than that.

Let me have a try at mind-reading. You now seem less than 100pc sure that SEA will be gone by the end 2017 and wouldn't want to put your money where your mouth is. Sound about right?

[Tsuba]

Really? How long have been reading minds Apathy? tell me, what am I thinking now? I am operating on no particular theory at all as it turns out. I am simply taking the view that Seadragon may well coat-tail CVT into various markets and customers. Indeed, some of CVT's products will include omega-3 refined be Seadragon. You may think CVT is ''chucking'' money at SEA, but, again, i'm sure they have a much more sophisticated plan than that.

Let me have a try at mind-reading. You now seem less than 100pc sure that SEA will be gone by the end 2017 and wouldn't want to put your money where your mouth is. Sound about right?

Your turn Aps .......

[Apathy]

Apa, you are forgetting that the "new" factory had to be built because of the earth quake and S D took the opportunity to upgrade their facilities and add plenty of bells and whistles while they were at it .

? the new factory didn't have to be built because of the earthquake? as for bells and whistles - fractionation is the bare minimum for that sort of plant and it didn't even include that.

[Apathy]

Really? How long have been reading minds Apathy? tell me, what am I thinking now? I am operating on no particular theory at all as it turns out. I am simply taking the view that Seadragon may well coat-tail CVT into various markets and customers. Indeed, some of CVT's products will include omega-3 refined be Seadragon. You may think CVT is ''chucking'' money at SEA, but, again, i'm sure they have a much more sophisticated plan than that.

Let me have a try at mind-reading. You now seem less than 100pc sure that SEA will be gone by the end 2017 and wouldn't want to put your money where your mouth is. Sound about right?

settle petal. not sure how ingredient manufacturer coat tails a finished product manufacturer into markets? In fact not entirely sure how the dynamics of selling to your cornerstone shareholders competitors actually works? Hi Mr Blackmore - would you like some fish oil.. before you say yes I just have to let you know that our major shareholder gets preferential supply arrangements.... genius!

So you think CVT knew they were in for another $3m so quickly? and they went for a convertible note instead of exercising their options because? Remember options could only be exercised in full so this still gives them a dollar each way .. just saying..

Money where mouth is - you offering to let me short some shares at todays price for settlement within next 18 months?