SKO - Serko.com

[Cadalac123]

Worth just holding and dollar cost averaging in my opinion. Corporate travel won’t die because of coronovirus in the long term

The current price and lower is a ridiuclous bargin especially considering the SPP recently

[King1212]

Worth just holding and dollar cost averaging in my opinion. Corporate travel won’t die because of coronovirus in the long term

The current price and lower is a ridiuclous bargin especially considering the SPP recently

How many of u guys can see the SP down to $2? Denial.. denial... denial

[Baa_Baa]

Worth just holding and dollar cost averaging in my opinion. Corporate travel won’t die because of coronovirus in the long term

The current price and lower is a ridiculous bargain especially considering the SPP recently

Given that they said this 25th February only a couple of weeks ago ... "Serko’s May 2019 announcement for its FY19 results provided guidance for total operating revenue growth of between 20% and 40% for the year ended 31 March 2020. Serko now expects the forecast revenue growth for the full year to 31 March 2020 to be at or about the low end of guidance." it's remarkable that the share price has held up so well, count your blessings.

But it gets worse.

It's going to be the 1H21 that the chooks come home to roost, and you won't know about it for 7 months, plus the reporting delay. Demand side travel bookings collapsing. Look for this metric to be the Archilles Heel of revenue.

• Travel booking platform transaction volumes for the period were 2.2 million up 4.5% over the same period last year.

It relates to exposure in transaction revenues against this metric (their "useful indicator of recurring revenue"):

• ATMR3 reached a peak of $26.2 million during the period up 35% from $19.4 million in the same period last year.

Attachment 11082

Downgrades come in three's according to some. Strike one.

Always good buying below $1. Very worrying stock to be hoping and preying in a market 'correction' driving the sword into the Travel industry that has every hallmark of turning into a full blown 'bear' market.

[Cadalac123]

Let me guess you think the coronovirus is going to kill everyone

[GTM 3442]

The transition to a SAAS pricing model means that any downturn in travel bookings comes through much faster.

And with the current lurch toward "video-conferencing", I don't think it's going to be a good year for business travel.

And there's a risk that the lurch may, to some degree at least, be permanent.

[Baa_Baa]

Let me guess you think the coronovirus is going to kill everyone

No, all it takes is a severe downturn in people travelling and making travel bookings.

[BlackPeter]

Worth just holding and dollar cost averaging in my opinion. Corporate travel won’t die because of coronovirus in the long term

The current price and lower is a ridiuclous bargin especially considering the SPP recently

Just seen an interesting stats in a German magazine. About half of people asked said that they would delay or cancel a planned overseas trip due to the corona virus ... and the other half said that they would still go ahead.

Assuming that the split in other first world countries might be similar it would be fair to assume that travel might drop this year by half. Not the end of the world for everybody, but likely to kill anybody in the travel industry with too much leverage or too much fixed costs.

[Baa_Baa]

Booking.com (Booking Holdings Inc via wholly owned subsidiary owns 4.7% of Serko, sell down was at $NZ4.04 so only about $1.7m under water now).

26 Feb guidance Q1 not so bad, only 8-13% YoY decline. Wonder when the next downgrade will be as travel bookings plummet worldwide?

https://ir.bookingholdings.com/stati...4-505f7ebd753e

Attachment 11086

[Cadalac123]

you need to realise these are forecasts on the basis that things will remain as bad as they are now, that won't be the case. I wouldn't be stock piling SKO at these prices, but after the next 2 quarters it's likely this will rally up again since this is an event affecting every player in this sector not just SKO.

[winner69]

On revenue growth rates, continued cash burn and most other fundamentals Serko ain’t worth $370m

It’s valued on a story rather than numbers. Essentially pointless trying to use numbers.

That story is summed up in slide below.

Believe that story and no worries