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  1. #281
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hoop View Post
    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>

    What has happened since the post above??..

    Very long term charting summary:
    ...SUM has been in an up trending SD channel since listing over 5 years ago and the share price has gained over 300%

    Medium term to the present summary...(refer to chart below)...A week after the 29th September chart posting (the chart above) SUM's TA wheels fell off triggering medium term sell signals (ema50 & 100 breaks adding to the list of breaks) The new bottom ($4.58) respected the MA200 and the subsequent rally in late November ended up being disappointing, triggering buy signals only to see investors getting burnt (Bull Trap). That rally was a sucker type and was quickly confirmed as such on the 8th December when the MA200 line broke indicating SUM had entered into a Technical bear market cycle...

    Since the 8th of December we have seen another bottoming out at $4.45 and this latest rally looks to be wilting at the resistance conjunction point of $4.70 where the MA50 ema50 the new confirmed downtrend line and the $4.77 resistance line (not marked in the last chart) meet. Also there at $4.77 are the Ema 100 and MA200 lines..Conjunction resistances are powerful areas to break through and requres large buying pressures..The momentum (momentum indicator not shown but the MACD is shown) at present shows not much buying pressure to speak of and with the price at $4.61 the falling wedge threatening upward breakout (which is now due..Bulkowski) looks in doubt.

    The falling Wedge pattern is a poor performing pattern but does have a 68% chance of an upward breakout...Being noted as a poor performer any upward breakout has to continue onwards and upwards to over $5.00 to alleviate sucker rally fears..even as a poor performing breakout the falling wedge pattern is still seen as a buy signal, however it is prudent to wait for further buy signals (The already triggered MACD may be a tad to quick) to help confirm such as the DMI which it seems will trigger about the same time as the EMA100 and MA200 resistance breakouts..If that happens, both medium and long term investors will enter around the same time which in theory should provide larger than "normal" buying pressure....

    Until then we should wait so to minimise another downward risk.

    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

    28th June 2017 post

    Just after my last SUM post and chart (above)... Quote .. "...prudent to wait for further buy signals (The already triggered MACD may be a tad to quick) to help confirm such as the DMI which it seems will trigger about the same time as the EMA100 and MA200 resistance breakouts..If that happens, both medium and long term investors will enter around the same time which in theory should provide larger than "normal" buying pressure......It did happen.


    UPDATE
    Guidance announcement
    this morning promised very good and continuing growth for the rest of 2017..Mr Market liked it and the price gapped up to $4.83 +18c from last nights close.
    SUM has been a bear for 9 months and has been a teddybear so far (cute and cuddly) but like all bears their temperment are unpredictable....Without looking at TA one would've thought the 18c gap up this morning would have see the end of the bear...but this is not the case yet..the gap up did push many TA indicator signals into the marginal buy area and a one lonely charted break (the 4.77 resistance line)..but it just indicates how broken this SUM chart was until today...

    What now..???
    The gap up today hasgot close to resistance areas and has stalled..SUM still has a lot of work to do..There are conjunction resistances MA's 50 100 200 a neckline and a ~$5.00 resistance (not drawn on chart)..Conjunction areas are hard to break as they need a lot of buyer pressure (momentum)..If SUM does break though the conjunction area, the drop in resistance + that buyer pressure rally will propel the price quickly upwards (physics) as was the case back in late January...

    However that gap up today mean't that many of us on the sidelines have missed out..and buying in after this gap up and the price being so close to the conjunction area may not be wise due to the increased risk (rule of thumb: - buy near supports, not near resistances)..Second thing to remember is SUM is still a bear (downtrend and price still below EMA200)

    The chart below has a lot of information and is rather cluttered..due to lack of space I have left out..S&R (resistance) line ~$5.00 .. another falling wedge pattern which broke downwards (late May) this time..The falling wedge is mixed up with tilted asymmetrical shaped H&S type pattern both giving a TP of ~$4.25...

    Last edited by Hoop; 28-06-2017 at 12:19 PM.

  2. #282
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    yeh Hoop
    I definitely jumped early on the descending wedge but that was part of my TA view (as well as the harmonic patterns) that it could be ready for a sharp upward movement , which todays movement could be the start of , a promising sign.
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  3. #283
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    Quote Originally Posted by KW View Post
    I thought I might start a little discussion on the usefulness of TA for timing. Now I do NOT advocate trading based on TA alone (tried it, lost a lot of money) but if you have used FA to identify a select list of good prospects, TA can be quite useful at knowing when to buy, when to top up, and when to sell. The following are all examples of some of my recent share purchases and sales.

    1. When to BUY
    I only ever buy companies that are in an uptrend. (Tried buying downtrends, lost a lot of money). The trick is to know when to enter. Get in too early, and the uptrend may turn out to be a dead cat bounce, or fizzle out. Get in too late and you may miss most of the run. My favourite entry point is when the 50 day moving average crosses above the 200 day moving average and the share price is above the 50 day MA. While you miss the early run, the risk of the uptrend not continuing is somewhat abated. I have tried entries based on just the share price crossing above both MA, but 3 out of 4 picks fail to continue on. I confirm the trend by watching the MACD (needs to be in positive territory).

    Example: CGF - entry was in early March, when the share price moved back above the 50 day MA and the MACD turned up ($3.64 - $3.81)
    Attachment 4517


    2. When to TOP UP
    Companies that are on exponential uptrends often present difficulties in deciding when to jump in. I have found that many pull back to a moving average, providing excellent entry points while the stock pauses and gets ready for the next leg up. Again, I use the 50 day average and MACD to confirm the uptrend is continuing, rather than the price decline being the start of the new downtrend.

    MFG - has been in a strong uptrend for ages, but it took a breather and retreated to just below its 50 day MA. Entry point would have been end of April when the MACD went positive, and the stock price crossed back above the 50 day MA ($6.94 - $7.14)

    Attachment 4518

    Another great example is SIV - entry point is end of February ($5.90 - $6.28)
    Attachment 4519

    3. When to SELL
    The first warning is when the share price drops below the 50 day moving average and the MACD turns down. This should put the stock on a watch list - its either a good time to top up, or a sell signal is going to be coming up shortly. If the price drops below the 200 day moving average I usually sell (I say usually, because its not uncommon for traders to try to drive the price down that far in order to trigger a bunch of stop losses, so you need to watch out for this little trick as often the share price rebounds immediately. IIN and CSV are good examples of this manipulation). If the "death cross" occurs (where the 50 day moving average crosses below the 200 day moving average, this is a signal that the downtrend is now firmly established).

    ALQ - I bought into this thinking it had turned the corner and was heading back into a strong uptrend. Alas it was not to be, and in mid-March an exit was signalled ($10.50 - $10.80). Even though the price has rebounded recently, its still a death cross situation, and its more likely than not that the downtrend will continue for a while.
    Attachment 4520

    I hope others find this useful - its how I make decisions at the moment, its very simple, but pretty effective. Its part of my "get rich slow" investment strategy :-) If anyone else has any examples of when they enter or exit, then please post them.
    Closest I'm going to get to KW , recycling her great T/A advice

  4. #284
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    Does anyone have any experience tracking VWAP over time to assist with entry and exit points?

    I look at it to judge momentum but have never seen it used as a distinct technical indicator which seems a bit of a shame. I use it alongside volume, MACD, RSI, DMI/ADX and moving averages.

    Even though some sites provide VWAP for the current day, I can't find a site that has the historical information. So I need to remember to check and record it for stocks every day which just doesn't happen.

    The other alternative I've considered is getting a script written to crawl ANZ securities (for example) and save the VWAP for each stock to a Google Sheet or something.

    Appreciate anyone else's thoughts on this.

  5. #285
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    Quote Originally Posted by Longhaul View Post
    Does anyone have any experience tracking VWAP over time to assist with entry and exit points?

    I look at it to judge momentum but have never seen it used as a distinct technical indicator which seems a bit of a shame. I use it alongside volume, MACD, RSI, DMI/ADX and moving averages.

    Even though some sites provide VWAP for the current day, I can't find a site that has the historical information. So I need to remember to check and record it for stocks every day which just doesn't happen.

    The other alternative I've considered is getting a script written to crawl ANZ securities (for example) and save the VWAP for each stock to a Google Sheet or something.

    Appreciate anyone else's thoughts on this.
    On reading your post my mind turns to the Money Flow Index indicator, which takes volume into account
    Have a read about it here.
    http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.p...flow_index_mfi
    Its not on many platforms (that I use) but Findata provide it

    so for instance to compare the MFI with the RSI as an indicator on Spark I concocted this chart.
    Attachment 9345

    Hope this is helpful.
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  6. #286
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    Quote Originally Posted by KW View Post
    I thought I might start a little discussion on the usefulness of TA for timing. Now I do NOT advocate trading based on TA alone (tried it, lost a lot of money) but if you have used FA to identify a select list of good prospects, TA can be quite useful at knowing when to buy, when to top up, and when to sell. The following are all examples of some of my recent share purchases and sales.

    1. When to BUY
    I only ever buy companies that are in an uptrend. (Tried buying downtrends, lost a lot of money). The trick is to know when to enter. Get in too early, and the uptrend may turn out to be a dead cat bounce, or fizzle out. Get in too late and you may miss most of the run. My favourite entry point is when the 50 day moving average crosses above the 200 day moving average and the share price is above the 50 day MA. While you miss the early run, the risk of the uptrend not continuing is somewhat abated. I have tried entries based on just the share price crossing above both MA, but 3 out of 4 picks fail to continue on. I confirm the trend by watching the MACD (needs to be in positive territory).

    Example: CGF - entry was in early March, when the share price moved back above the 50 day MA and the MACD turned up ($3.64 - $3.81)
    Attachment 4517


    2. When to TOP UP
    Companies that are on exponential uptrends often present difficulties in deciding when to jump in. I have found that many pull back to a moving average, providing excellent entry points while the stock pauses and gets ready for the next leg up. Again, I use the 50 day average and MACD to confirm the uptrend is continuing, rather than the price decline being the start of the new downtrend.

    MFG - has been in a strong uptrend for ages, but it took a breather and retreated to just below its 50 day MA. Entry point would have been end of April when the MACD went positive, and the stock price crossed back above the 50 day MA ($6.94 - $7.14)

    Attachment 4518

    Another great example is SIV - entry point is end of February ($5.90 - $6.28)
    Attachment 4519

    3. When to SELL
    The first warning is when the share price drops below the 50 day moving average and the MACD turns down. This should put the stock on a watch list - its either a good time to top up, or a sell signal is going to be coming up shortly. If the price drops below the 200 day moving average I usually sell (I say usually, because its not uncommon for traders to try to drive the price down that far in order to trigger a bunch of stop losses, so you need to watch out for this little trick as often the share price rebounds immediately. IIN and CSV are good examples of this manipulation). If the "death cross" occurs (where the 50 day moving average crosses below the 200 day moving average, this is a signal that the downtrend is now firmly established).

    ALQ - I bought into this thinking it had turned the corner and was heading back into a strong uptrend. Alas it was not to be, and in mid-March an exit was signalled ($10.50 - $10.80). Even though the price has rebounded recently, its still a death cross situation, and its more likely than not that the downtrend will continue for a while.
    Attachment 4520

    I hope others find this useful - its how I make decisions at the moment, its very simple, but pretty effective. Its part of my "get rich slow" investment strategy :-) If anyone else has any examples of when they enter or exit, then please post them.
    Thanks again KW

  7. #287
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    I've been reading the whole post following the recommendation from Beagle, thanks mate.
    As far as I understood KW has left the forum and being an old post I can't access to the image examples to learn as TA is just very theoretical to me and now I'm trying to practice the mentioned guided above.

    In today's market or maybe recently is there any examples there to match KW's guide done by anyone on ST maybe?. Would be much appreciated.

  8. #288
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    Quote Originally Posted by MauroNZ View Post
    I've been reading the whole post following the recommendation from Beagle, thanks mate.
    As far as I understood KW has left the forum and being an old post I can't access to the image examples to learn as TA is just very theoretical to me and now I'm trying to practice the mentioned guided above.

    In today's market or maybe recently is there any examples there to match KW's guide done by anyone on ST maybe?. Would be much appreciated.
    As KW said, it's very a very simple trading strategy. Just Google "trading moving averages" and browse the main articles, then extrapolate that to the mainstream moving averages that KW is talking about ... and you'll get the gist of it. To extend the learning, Google "momentum share trading" as well.

    You'll need a basic chart tool, where you can choose various moving averages, and 'back test' what works for the shares you are interested in .. such as here: https://finance.yahoo.com

  9. #289
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    KW has explained the theory in its simplest form as buy shares that are going up, and sell shares that are going down.

  10. #290
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    Quote Originally Posted by Baa_Baa View Post
    As KW said, it's very a very simple trading strategy. Just Google "trading moving averages" and browse the main articles, then extrapolate that to the mainstream moving averages that KW is talking about ... and you'll get the gist of it. To extend the learning, Google "momentum share trading" as well.

    You'll need a basic chart tool, where you can choose various moving averages, and 'back test' what works for the shares you are interested in .. such as here: https://finance.yahoo.com

    Thanks mate. I just had a look at CEN chart on yahoo and according to KW criteria isn't giving a buy sign yet. Would you agree on that?.

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