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  1. #151
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    Quote Originally Posted by Baa_Baa View Post
    @Hoop, agree regarding horizontal support though I have the weekly 38.2 fib at $2.34, same as monthly (week of Jun8 2012 low to recent high.). The 10MA is right on $2.34 as well. The SP is still below at $2.26 though does seem to be settling (below the fib resistance). Too risky for me to play with dead cats.
    Yeah agree...
    Air is up today, running against the Market as did the Global airlines index ($XAL) on Wall St this morning (NZ Time)..

    I'm no candlestick expert, but referring back to that $XAL chart again I think I see a nice example of a dark cloud cover with its next day bearish confirmation companion signal at that 96.8 top back around 20th 21st April..AIR also descended down steeply from $2.90 during the same period via it's H&S pattern.
    BaaBaa, I rechecked my weekly chart..my FIB trend line was well off the high and low points..(wonder how that happened)... yep...re-set it and it says $2.34 as you said..
    Last edited by Hoop; 18-05-2016 at 12:00 PM.

  2. #152
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    I posted much earlier on the AIR thread about $XAL index chart's slight correlation with AIR chart...It got very little attention/ ignored and was quickly swamped by the continued flood of rosy FA noises..A few days ago the AIR Management commented on the AIR share price drop being the effect of the Global airline market weakness (not our fault excuse).... It seems AIR drop is indirectly related to the global airline market weakness..not associated with QAN sudden drop as mentioned at the time by the media......QAN drop can also be seen on the charts as being indirectly related to $XAL steep fall..it all happened at the same time as QAN negative announcement but the NZ / Oz media attentions were only focused on the home front and as the charts show it's reported logical outcome was not entirely correct.

    Using the eye test with QAN/$XAL chart relationship ...in the past there doesn't seem to have any correlation with $XAL ..probably due to QAN's unique financial problems

    Comparing AIR's relationship with $XAL .. Air seems to be leading by a day or two but keep an eye on the $XAL chart as any rise there would offer a high chance the rise will also be reflected back to AIR and possibly QAN
    Last edited by Hoop; 18-05-2016 at 11:29 AM.

  3. #153
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Kudos to you for your call on AIR Hoop and thank you for being a gentleman and not saying I told you so and continuing to contribute for all our benifet.

  4. #154
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Handy that part of the management incentives based on AIR share price relative to a global airline index

    Our fault / not our fault but seems thy fcan't lose anyway
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  5. #155
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    Quote Originally Posted by Baa_Baa View Post
    @Hoop, agree regarding horizontal support though I have the weekly 38.2 fib at $2.34, same as monthly (week of Jun8 2012 low to recent high.). The 10MA is right on $2.34 as well. The SP is still below at $2.26 though does seem to be settling (below the fib resistance). Too risky for me to play with dead cats.
    @Hoop. How's the dead cat. Didn't bounce far, sort of a sideways splat cat? Close today at $2.23, on Friday's low last week below the Jun/Sept 2014 supports. After a morning of speculation by some that now was good time to buy, then the whole afternoon of steady decline. It's gut wrenching reading and watching, but quite the lesson!

    Edit: someone slapped 64k on $2.25.8 to close after hours.
    Last edited by Baa_Baa; 19-05-2016 at 04:33 PM. Reason: Should wait for the after market data.

  6. #156
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger View Post
    Kudos to you for your call on AIR Hoop and thank you for being a gentleman and not saying I told you so and continuing to contribute for all our benifet.
    This response is off topic but I think the kudos should be shared Roger..You've put a lot of effort into analysing AIR. I've used and valued your information that you have shared with all of us on ST It has been a great help in my decision making....We are both trying to make a better investment world for everyone out there...Sometimes the forum gets us down,, I think everyone of us goes through these phases....It's these low times when people should show their appreciation for the work and time you have put in...I know I do as I hold you in high respect and so do others on ST...Your ST reputation proves that and so it should...We all live in an imperfect world of share investing governed by the emotional behaviour of share investors and traders and we all have our high moments and low moments..Its unfortunate for many that AIR stocks has decided to behave badly, but that's how the market works...eh...

    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Handy that part of the management incentives based on AIR share price relative to a global airline index

    Our fault / not our fault but seems thy fcan't lose anyway
    Can't lose at the moment but I can imagine tough times for management when the global airline players decide not to play nicely...A good sensible management operating a company within a topped out cyclical environment which starts to see its Global players trying to cut each others throats must be challenging ..reminds me of the Aesops frog/scorpion fable...
    frog= AIR management? scorpion = Global Airline Sector?..It's nature is to be forever cyclical?
    The Scorpion and the Frog

    A scorpion and a frog meet on the bank of a stream and the
    scorpion asks the frog to carry him across on its back. The
    frog asks, "How do I know you won't sting me?" The scorpion
    says, "Because if I do, I will die too."

    The frog is satisfied, and they set out, but in midstream,
    the scorpion stings the frog. The frog feels the onset of
    paralysis and starts to sink, knowing they both will drown,
    but has just enough time to gasp "Why?"

    Replies the scorpion: "Its my nature..."


    Quote Originally Posted by Baa_Baa View Post
    @Hoop. How's the dead cat. Didn't bounce far, sort of a sideways splat cat? Close today at $2.23, on Friday's low last week below the Jun/Sept 2014 supports. After a morning of speculation by some that now was good time to buy, then the whole afternoon of steady decline. It's gut wrenching reading and watching, but quite the lesson!

    Edit: someone slapped 64k on $2.25.8 to close after hours.
    A splat cat..nice name..I like it
    Europe down but trying to rally as I type and the Wall St animals are all nervous and restless within an eerie calm...not a good sign..
    If Wall St technicals break $XAL probably will too..EgyptAir Flight Ms804 crashing won't help either..
    That seems to be the way the bear market cycle works..It attacks your mind, creating disappointment after disappointment..everything seems to go against you..
    Yes..Gut wrenching stuff

  7. #157
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    I remember @Hoop you posting the $XAL/AIR comparison chart illustrating the correlation of the index to our airline SP. It's only the early Jan -> mid Feb period, over the whole 4 year bull run from 2012, that the correlation broke when AIR went ballistic up to $3.20. I wonder if the big offshore investors in AIR that management spoke of to Roger yesterday saw that disconnection as a shorting (selling) opportunity? Currently AIR/$XAL have re-correlated though AIR does now look a bit oversold compared to the index performance.

  8. #158
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    Thanks Hoop. I feel a bit splat today too. Market sure can be a tough mistress sometimes...
    Last edited by Beagle; 20-05-2016 at 11:41 AM.

  9. #159
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    Default With due respect.

    Now it is time for homage. AIR closed Friday 21 May $2.18. I have taken the liberty of editing some of the original content of the post (marked [...]) to focus on the analysis and price projection.

    Well done!

    Quote Originally Posted by Hoop View Post
    AIR on Tuesday 26th April broke all sorts of TA indicators and chart patterns and triggered mass sell signals when it fell below $2.80..To a TA investor mass sell signals are serious..the discipline screams out "SELL" [...]

    Ok below is a AIR chart stripped of all its TA layers except for the H&S Pattern...It is a great textbook example of a chart pattern which is the most reliable of all chart patterns..once the H&S pattern is completed (when the breakout occurs) there is a 96% chance the shareprice will fall more than 5%.. [...]

    Xerof has a target price of 2.15 [the post appears to have been deleted but is quoted] I guess those calculations where using highs/lows..My chart calculations is using closing day prices...there's no right or wrong here as the target price.

    Of more complexity when other patterns and TA incators are added in as chart layers we can see possible supports on the way down towards 2.19 target price which would affect the 46% odds of the theoretical happening...But I will leave the more complex stuff to another day



  10. #160
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    What happens now with these head and shoulder patterns

    Does the price now fall to hands/wrist levels?
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

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