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  1. #11
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    KW do you do your own research when looking for increasing earnings/dividends?

    Do you look at forward EPS/DPS forecasts?

    Do you have any portion of your portfolio set aside for speculative/growth stocks i.e won't make your EPS or DPS criteria but have excellent growth prospects?

  2. #12
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    HI Oldrider I am a new to the sharemarket and have not invested yet but am looking to. I found this site and read your post about CGVI and found more info on it but still need to see if I am on the right page so to speak. I found postings from 2003 on shareguru with the above formula and was needing more help with it.When I look at a company on the NZX securities page, Gross Dividend Yields is expressed as a percentage how can I get Dividend Per Share in Cents? and will the EPS, NTA and Share price shown be ok to work out the CGVI and do you still use 24 or greater as to which companies to look further into?

  3. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by KW View Post
    1. When to BUY
    I only ever buy companies that are in an uptrend. (Tried buying downtrends, lost a lot of money). The trick is to know when to enter. Get in too early, and the uptrend may turn out to be a dead cat bounce, or fizzle out. Get in too late and you may miss most of the run. My favourite entry point is when the 50 day moving average crosses above the 200 day moving average and the share price is above the 50 day MA. While you miss the early run, the risk of the uptrend not continuing is somewhat abated. I have tried entries based on just the share price crossing above both MA, but 3 out of 4 picks fail to continue on. I confirm the trend by watching the MACD (needs to be in positive territory).

    Example: CGF - entry was in early March, when the share price moved back above the 50 day MA and the MACD turned up ($3.64 - $3.81)
    Attachment 4517


    2. When to TOP UP
    Companies that are on exponential uptrends often present difficulties in deciding when to jump in. I have found that many pull back to a moving average, providing excellent entry points while the stock pauses and gets ready for the next leg up. Again, I use the 50 day average and MACD to confirm the uptrend is continuing, rather than the price decline being the start of the new downtrend.

    MFG - has been in a strong uptrend for ages, but it took a breather and retreated to just below its 50 day MA. Entry point would have been end of April when the MACD went positive, and the stock price crossed back above the 50 day MA ($6.94 - $7.14)

    Attachment 4518

    Another great example is SIV - entry point is end of February ($5.90 - $6.28)
    Attachment 4519
    Hey KW, do you ever buy into a stock base on your top up rules?

    For example you like the looks of RYM and it has been in a strong up trend. Your not likely to see a golden cross signal as the 50MA is above the 200MA and will likely continue to remain there. Would you buy into RYM if it met your top up rules?
    You make your own luck.

  4. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by KW View Post
    I thought I might start a little discussion on the usefulness of TA for timing. Now I do NOT advocate trading based on TA alone (tried it, lost a lot of money) but if you have used FA to identify a select list of good prospects, TA can be quite useful at knowing when to buy, when to top up, and when to sell. The following are all examples of some of my recent share purchases and sales.

    1. When to BUY
    I only ever buy companies that are in an uptrend. (Tried buying downtrends, lost a lot of money). The trick is to know when to enter. Get in too early, and the uptrend may turn out to be a dead cat bounce, or fizzle out. Get in too late and you may miss most of the run. My favourite entry point is when the 50 day moving average crosses above the 200 day moving average and the share price is above the 50 day MA. While you miss the early run, the risk of the uptrend not continuing is somewhat abated. I have tried entries based on just the share price crossing above both MA, but 3 out of 4 picks fail to continue on. I confirm the trend by watching the MACD (needs to be in positive territory).

    Example: CGF - entry was in early March, when the share price moved back above the 50 day MA and the MACD turned up ($3.64 - $3.81)
    Attachment 4517


    2. When to TOP UP
    Companies that are on exponential uptrends often present difficulties in deciding when to jump in. I have found that many pull back to a moving average, providing excellent entry points while the stock pauses and gets ready for the next leg up. Again, I use the 50 day average and MACD to confirm the uptrend is continuing, rather than the price decline being the start of the new downtrend.

    MFG - has been in a strong uptrend for ages, but it took a breather and retreated to just below its 50 day MA. Entry point would have been end of April when the MACD went positive, and the stock price crossed back above the 50 day MA ($6.94 - $7.14)

    Attachment 4518

    Another great example is SIV - entry point is end of February ($5.90 - $6.28)
    Attachment 4519

    3. When to SELL
    The first warning is when the share price drops below the 50 day moving average and the MACD turns down. This should put the stock on a watch list - its either a good time to top up, or a sell signal is going to be coming up shortly. If the price drops below the 200 day moving average I usually sell (I say usually, because its not uncommon for traders to try to drive the price down that far in order to trigger a bunch of stop losses, so you need to watch out for this little trick as often the share price rebounds immediately. IIN and CSV are good examples of this manipulation). If the "death cross" occurs (where the 50 day moving average crosses below the 200 day moving average, this is a signal that the downtrend is now firmly established).

    ALQ - I bought into this thinking it had turned the corner and was heading back into a strong uptrend. Alas it was not to be, and in mid-March an exit was signalled ($10.50 - $10.80). Even though the price has rebounded recently, its still a death cross situation, and its more likely than not that the downtrend will continue for a while.
    Attachment 4520

    I hope others find this useful - its how I make decisions at the moment, its very simple, but pretty effective. Its part of my "get rich slow" investment strategy :-) If anyone else has any examples of when they enter or exit, then please post them.
    KW This is an excellent piece of information you have passed on .Thank You.

    As I read your Post I recall what had happened to myself in the past .An example of this is with Greencross with my pre entered STOPLOSS. I knew that the instant share price crash happened for a reason but I could not pin it down.As a result my Stoploss triggered and I was wondering what the hell happen here and for what reason and so fast. ( ie 5 minutes)

    Now after reading your post I can see why.

    Snakes in the grass looking for a feast of cheap shares by suddenly dropping the share price of excellent shares like Greencross and triggering stoplosses.

    Then instantly buying in after the crash.

    You are the first person to state what I have suffered in the past with stoploss.

    Cheers for that once again
    Last edited by blocker3; 18-01-2014 at 05:42 AM.

  5. #15
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    Many thanks KW - very interesting thread

    What settings would you favor for the MACD indicator?

    cheers

  6. #16
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    KW..this is superb. I have just started reading up on TA. Thanks for taking the time to post these details.

    When you first started on the TA path how did you decide which tools from the TA toolkit would be the ones for you to use? and how have these changed over time ?

    Any specific TA resources you'd advise a beginner to focus on . I have a 'Charting for Dummies' book at the moment .

  7. #17
    born2invest
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    Quote Originally Posted by KW View Post
    Now lets look at FXL: see anything similar? Do you think I am waiting around to see what the future holds? Not on your life - I sold last week, even if it goes on to recover nicely I still feel better taking my profits and sleeping well at night :-)
    Attachment 5239
    When did you buy?

  8. #18
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    Hey KW, out of interest which charting program do you use? Cheers

  9. #19
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    I'm new to investing and constantly looking for new checks I can add into my process for feeling comfortable about investing in a stock and KW this is some good analysis I can look into. Over the last couple of days I've been checking out historical changes of companies and etching along day by day trying to validate whether if I was holding at that current point whether I would sell or continue to hold based of this technical analysis and more often than not I'm finding it's returning positive results. I'm combining this with fundamental analysis as well so I'm not purely takeing random pot shots at tech companies and trying to ride a hype wave (all hypothetical and historical of course). In short I can definitely see these technicals making their way into my investing process

    Cheers KW!
    Sam

  10. #20
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    Good stuff KW.

    I use my own method but the things you have outlined are very informative.

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