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  1. #191
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    Quote Originally Posted by Baa_Baa View Post
    Close today Monday, $2.17. Let's see if that rising ST trend line holds tomorrow. $XAL overnight will provide clues as the correlation seems intact.
    Hope that correlation breaks down today .....else another 6 cents fall for AIR
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  2. #192
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post

    Hope that correlation breaks down today .....else another 6 cents fall for AIR
    Close but no cigar. 9 cents down today, 2.13 did offer support for about 2 hours but broke down to close $2.08. Some have proffered up 2.05 as support but I'd factor in the recent low of $2.02. If it breaks that, head for the hills esp if $XAL and the Broads are leading it down. AIR's chart is mean, nasty and behaving just like the Bear it is at the moment.

  3. #193
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    Got Stopped out of AIR at 2.11 yesterday took a -8% loss...

    Disc: Have no AIR

  4. #194
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Load of the proverbial that so called correlation anyway

    Last 3 months XAL down a tad but AIR down 25%

    Maybe XAL trying to catch up?

    https://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=...IR.NZ%2C+&ql=1

    Quote Originally Posted by Baa_Baa View Post
    You obfuscating the point, the correlation is not in terms of 'percentage' it is simply in terms of 'direction' (which is currently down) and $XAL is a leading indicator when there is correlation. You're right though, $XAL fell further overnight and broke down through medium term support, next supports at the Feb levels.

    The reason $XAL has relevance is that large offshore holders of AIR are likely to also invest in other airlines (within the Airlines Index) and this influences decisions about portfolio weightings to the sector and in turn flows into buy/sell decisions on individual airline stocks.


    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Sorry to obfuscating there baabaa

    Run some numbers over XAL and AIR - daily changes in each over the last 12 months

    Conclusion - there is little correlation between the two (0.12) and that other factors (not how XAL is doing) mainly drive the AIR share price

    Note your comment re 'direction' but i think that only applies over longer time periods
    Hmmm..If the Airline industry cycle has turned it seems XAL is a leading indicator

    Last edited by Hoop; 16-06-2016 at 11:02 AM.

  5. #195
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Hoop - we probably talking cross purposes or sometning

    Me saying that there is a low correlation between period changes in price of XAL and AIR and baabaa and yourself talking direction

    Maths says correlation ~0.1 for daily and weekly price movements of each (over yhevlast year) increasing to about ~0.3 for monthly price changes (last 10 years). These numbers are low, and even on a monthly basis say there is a low correlation in price movements between the two. Interesting over the last 142 momths there have been 56 months (more than a 1/3) where AIR and XAL have gone in different directions.

    As you would expect the longer the timeframe the correlation gets stronger. On an annual basis the correlation is ~0.6 and except for lat year both have moved in the same direction

    Your comparison chart is a good one - it does show that direction is generally the same and that change of direction needs to be noted

    The discussion came about from daily movements in AIR and that they seemed to follow XAL (maths would say otherwise). You have pointed out by your chart the importance of following longer term trends. Different discussions - yes?

    Whatever - AIR on a roll today - wonder why?
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  6. #196
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Hoop - we probably talking cross purposes or sometning

    Me saying that there is a low correlation between period changes in price of XAL and AIR and baabaa and yourself talking direction

    Maths says correlation ~0.1 for daily and weekly price movements of each (over yhevlast year) increasing to about ~0.3 for monthly price changes (last 10 years). These numbers are low, and even on a monthly basis say there is a low correlation in price movements between the two. Interesting over the last 142 momths there have been 56 months (more than a 1/3) where AIR and XAL have gone in different directions.

    As you would expect the longer the timeframe the correlation gets stronger. On an annual basis the correlation is ~0.6 and except for lat year both have moved in the same direction

    Your comparison chart is a good one - it does show that direction is generally the same and that change of direction needs to be noted

    The discussion came about from daily movements in AIR and that they seemed to follow XAL (maths would say otherwise). You have pointed out by your chart the importance of following longer term trends. Different discussions - yes?

    Whatever - AIR on a roll today - wonder why?
    Different discussions - yes?...yes

    AIR on a roll today - wonder why?...I'll take the credit on that one ...I exited it at 2.11 and caused it to rise...

  7. #197
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    Interesting, two Shooting Star daily candles (reversal signals) on Tues May 31 and Thur Jun 16, both gap open, both followed the next day by gap close drops.

    $2.07 close Friday 17 June brings the $2.02 support into play again. There's no significant technical support below that until Aug 2014 low $1.87 (weak) and Oct 2014 low $1.75 (strong).

    This could get really ugly if the $2.02 support breaks down then a dive to technical support below could happen relatively quickly. Conversely a bounce here or before $2.02 support would signal a double bottom indicating a reversal probability.

    On balance it looks more bearish than bullish right now. JMHO, best to have eyes on and fingers on the trigger.

  8. #198
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    Default AIR cycles

    Monthly Chart. Mucking around to see if there's any symmetry in the peaks and troughs and behold there is a short cycle marking very very closely the medium term turning points, and the long cycle peak to peak. The previous short cycle seems to be a reversal which says to me that the current cycle will be down not up. Probably just making it up as I go but there is a remarkable symmetry. Note also those 10/20 month MA crossovers look reasonably effective 'get in, get out' signals and correlate fairly closely to the short cycle. Anyway, see what you think of this:

    Attachment 8115

    JMHO, DYODD.

  9. #199
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    Tossing a coin would be at least as accurate a method of determining where the Air share price is heading compared to TA methinks and a whole lot simpler. PS-Fridays drop to $2.07 on close was caused by a few nervous big boys selling out due to the Brexit situation and not specific to Air. PPS-Expect more turbulence next week,up or down? get that coin out, probably both so heads and tails are both winners.
    Last edited by couta1; 18-06-2016 at 05:15 PM.

  10. #200
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    Tossing a coin would be at least as accurate a method of determining where the Air share price is heading compared to TA methinks and a whole lot simpler. PS-Fridays drop to $2.07 on close was caused by a few nervous big boys selling out due to the Brexit situation and not specific to Air. PPS-Expect more turbulence next week,up or down? get that coin out, probably both so heads and tails are both winners.
    A predictably vacuous and insensitive comment, intruding on the TA 'time entries and exits' thread with nothing to contribute except derisive nonsense and entirely speculative gross generalisations that have nothing to do with technical analysis. The reason we don't discuss TA on the AIR thread is precisely due to inane responses from the few who have no ability or interest in developing their skills to augment their share investing or trading decisions. If you can't contribute on topic, please don't say anything at all.

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