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  1. #201
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    Come on Baa, you've made plenty of TA comments over on the Air thread, you seem to have a morbid fascination with the stock. By the way I do use basic TA indicators but as primarily a long term FA investor in stocks like Air, they are only of minor significance. PS- Above post did contain a touch of humour.

  2. #202
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    Quote Originally Posted by Baa_Baa View Post
    Interesting, two Shooting Star daily candles (reversal signals) on Tues May 31 and Thur Jun 16, both gap open, both followed the next day by gap close drops.

    $2.07 close Friday 17 June brings the $2.02 support into play again. There'no significant technical support below that until Aug 2014 low $1.87 (weak) and Oct 2014 low $1.75 (strong).

    This could get really ugly if the $2.02 support breaks down then a dive to technical support below could happen relatively quickly. Conversely a bounce here or before $2.02 support would signal a double bottom indicating a reversal probability.

    On balance it looks more bearish than bullish right now. JMHO, best to have eyes on and fingers on the trigger.
    Thanks Baa ; plenty of us who appreciate your's and Hoops, without emotion/ego, T/A posts on here although you tend to lose me at times as i like to keep it simple with a few M/A, vol indicators. The old buy and hold in the bottom drawer approach has been consigned to history for most stocks unfortunately; even now i find myself reverting to this faulty default setting and have to drop kick that redundant idea and more actively monitor my stocks. Being mindful of what we small investors are up against, tech wise, Insto's, bots etc helps and I'm thinking our days are prob numbered investing in this way; the odds will be so stacked against us soon enough.

  3. #203
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    Come on Baa, you've made plenty of TA comments over on the Air thread, you seem to have a morbid fascination with the stock. By the way I do use basic TA indicators but as primarily a long term FA investor in stocks like Air, they are only of minor significance. PS- Above post did contain a touch of humour.
    Not anymore I don't, TA is not appreciated on the AIR thread, it is quickly cried down by the eternal optimists, and besides this is a civil egoless thread about TA entries and exits, not confined to AIR. It just happens that AIR is emerging as a very good example of a pending entry opportunity when the capitulation occurs, though it could be months away, maybe years and the price could be a heck of a lot lower, as AIR has shown with it's cyclical tendencies. As for "morbid fascination", whatever that means in this context, if you think closely monitoring a share for a buy-in price in a massive down trend is morbid, or perhaps you think unselfishly sharing my analysis is morbid, then plenty of others are patient enough to be fascinated as well, unlike some who leap at the slightest price weakness even in a confirmed downtrend and 4-year price trend breakdown. Because you like disclosure, here's a fess up .. I bought AIR 0.85 and sold 2.90. Long TA got me in and also got me out, it's working just fine thank you. I will buy it again when my TA says so. There was also no humour in your cynical post, just off topic rhetoric and direct attacks on the disciplines of TA and implied attack on the poster, as it immediately followed a shared cyclical analysis chart. The pot called the kettle black. It was not appreciated in the slightest. I doubt that you would stoop to an apology.

  4. #204
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    Baa Baa, I'm more than happy to apologize if I have caused offense however I think you have grossly over reacted to my original post and I'm not the only one to think so.As an aside I never looked at the cyclical analysis chart before posting.Perhaps if we both delete our posts that would solve the problem?
    Last edited by couta1; 20-06-2016 at 05:21 PM.

  5. #205
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    Hi Baa, I appreciate the charts and input and hope you keep it up, its great learning from yourself and others and trying to apply in practice.

    The pin for today not exactly the robust nature it started out at. Hopefully over the week some consolidation will come in as brexit settles and the comment you made on the bounce and double bottom comes into play.

    Time will tell

  6. #206
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    Thanks JD and WD, one wonders from time to time whether it's worth the effort to share.

    Nevertheless, AIR has built a (very) short term rising support trend line (daily chart), 5 days higher low/close from $2.02, and today bounced off that trend line to the obvious short term resistance $2.12 also the 10MA. The immediate significant price resistance (above) is at $2.27, support (below) is vaguely $2.07 and strong $2.02.

    WD, your question on AIR about whether this is a new up trend, well that's not about price per se, it's more about risk thresholds imho. The mainstream indicators suggest the very beginning of an upswing from oversold, though even the very short MA's (10/30) are still above. Early days to pick a reversal.

    News could change AIR either way and there's no shortage of direct and indirect news lately.

  7. #207
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    Thanks for that Baa Baa, great commentary and insight. AIR certainly has had a battering. I think a lot of it will hinge on Brexit which by overnight markets seems to be pricing in them remaining. If that is the case removing the uncertainty clouding things of late may just result in AIR gaining some traction.

    Its been interesting to follow and funnily enough some good learning in it for me. Didn't play it well to start but been a bit smarter with it lately albeit not without a touch of risk.

  8. #208
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    New to share trading so I apologise in advance for my stupid question, but what time period should I be looking at to apply moving averages please? One year, two years, five years? Am I correct that 50 and 200 are the best MA's to apply?? Sorry for my simplistic knowledge!

  9. #209
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    Quote Originally Posted by RupertBear View Post
    New to share trading so I apologise in advance for my stupid question, but what time period should I be looking at to apply moving averages please? One year, two years, five years? Am I correct that 50 and 200 are the best MA's to apply?? Sorry for my simplistic knowledge!
    Perhaps you could start a 'Basic Technical Analysis' thread in the newbies corner, I'm sure people will be happy to help there. Most things you're likely to ask are covered in detail just by googling, for example .. google "Trading moving averages" and do some research. Investopedia.com, Stockcharts.com, Investing.com, Bigcharts.com ... all have a good mix of education, tutorials and / or free charting software.

  10. #210
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    Quote Originally Posted by RupertBear View Post
    New to share trading so I apologise in advance for my stupid question, but what time period should I be looking at to apply moving averages please? One year, two years, five years? Am I correct that 50 and 200 are the best MA's to apply?? Sorry for my simplistic knowledge!
    Different time frames are used for different purposes and how quickly you want the information to trigger off predetermined exit and entry boundary lines.

    There is no 'best', its more about your intention or predisposition. For example, you have described time frames that are more suited to an 'investors' horizon, 50 day Moving Average and 200 day moving average. These allow for quite a lot of movement and will be slow to give you buy or sell signals. If you use shorter MAs you will get quicker feedback from the market, but you may get pushed in and out of stocks more frequently - which if you're trading, is a good thing.

    A good set of questions to ask yourself is - what is my time frame? When do I need the money? Am I an investor, or a trader? What is my personality like - will I jump at shadows, or will I be considered in what I'm doing regardless of the market? Will paper losses relate to sleepless nights? Am I good with extended periods of soft pressure (investing)? Or am I good with quick periods of short hard pressure (trading)? Would I rather be quickly 'in' and 'out' of stocks that might go negative for a while, or is that okay with me?

    Personally, I tried trading and it wasn't really for me, I prefer investing but listening to long market forces - for me 50 and 200 MAs work really well. You'll see a couple of people with hard disciplines of TA only, while others combine a little bit of both TA and FA, and others again discount TA entirely as black magic.

    Take a look at some companies you might be interested in investing in, go to a charting site and starting tinkering with the MA periods - how many times would you have been pushed in and out of a stock over say the last 1, 2, 5 years etc with different MA periods. This will help find the one that's right for you.

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