Using TA to time entries and exits

[Cool Bear]

thanks hoop for that chart. I am one of the guilty ones falling prey to the sucker rallies of late for AIR.

[Hoop]

thanks hoop for that chart. I am one of the guilty ones falling prey to the sucker rallies of late for AIR.

Me too...I expected the dead cat bounce off the 2.02 bottom to reach at least 2.40 was hoping for 2.50 to 2.70...it ended at 2.31 a couple of cents higher than my buy in.....so my 10% quick flick turned into a -4% quick flop...I was dabbling so it didn't wound me financially just wounded my pride

[Baa_Baa]

Me too...I expected the dead cat bounce off the 2.02 bottom to reach at least 2.40 was hoping for 2.50 to 2.70...it ended at 2.31 a couple of cents higher than my buy in.....so my 10% quick flick turned into a -4% quick flop...I was dabbling so it didn't wound me financially just wounded my pride

Probably some good upside for the brave and (lucky?) nimble traders even at $2.16 today, though for the slightly more conservative, that descending triangle and double bottom support says patience, wait, watch. My trusty weekly chart says close above $2.29 and confirmed is a decent entry. Could be all ****e though, who knows.

[workingdad]

Looking at the chart, isn't the 50 MA at 2.185? XAL up 4.5% overnight and oil prices outlook subdued as mentioned in the AIR thread, I am wondering if sentiment is starting to turn. Be interesting to see the EOY results and outlook but from my limited perspective I don't exactly see headwinds.....

air.PNG

Bollinger bands

air2.PNG

Would the experts be able to take some time to educate myself and others. Is the Bollinger bands for AIR potentially showing a W pattern? If there was a break out at 2.25 could this be a predictor for a good recovery?

I enjoy reading the charts you guys put up and the analysis but wonder if the above is a consideration as well?

Thanks

[Hoop]

Probably some good upside for the brave and (lucky?) nimble traders even at $2.16 today, though for the slightly more conservative, that descending triangle and double bottom support says patience, wait, watch. My trusty weekly chart says close above $2.29 and confirmed is a decent entry. Could be all ****e though, who knows.

Hmmm..yeah..BaaBaa around the $2.29 breakout is positive...but there's a problem for chartist buying in here (2.31ish) and that is the major 2.40 resistance is only 4% up the road...Though about this last night and an alternative plan (higher risk/better reward) is to maybe buy in at the descending triangle upside breakout which could happen today or did it happen yesterday. (2.16-2.17 margin of error)...Wall St is surrounded in an aurora of investor bliss atm..so less risky bet for AIR to jump in now with tight stops?

XAL has broken upwards (Gapped up) It seems the sun has broken through the clouds and everyone in the Global airline sector has donned on their rosy glasses.

Hmmm.might have another dabble..

[Hoop]

Looking at the chart, isn't the 50 MA at 2.185? XAL up 4.5% overnight and oil prices outlook subdued as mentioned in the AIR thread, I am wondering if sentiment is starting to turn. Be interesting to see the EOY results and outlook but from my limited perspective I don't exactly see headwinds.....

air.PNG

Bollinger bands

air2.PNG

Would the experts be able to take some time to educate myself and others. Is the Bollinger bands for AIR potentially showing a W pattern? If there was a break out at 2.25 could this be a predictor for a good recovery?

I enjoy reading the charts you guys put up and the analysis but wonder if the above is a consideration as well?

Thanks

There is headwinds..your 2.18 MA50 is a variable resistance line..My chart has a EMA50 of 2.236 so there is a lot of resistance sludge around... as I said previously AIR has a lot of work to do....however a big buyer or two would do the trick...NZ is a small market..
From a close inspection on my chart (3 month view) the bollinger bands yesterday widened a tad from the squeeze.

Bollinger bands tend to be price boundary lines but remember with volatility the BB lines act according..so you cant surmise yesterdays BB top line at 2.204 and say that today's price will hit and pause at 2.20 because if todays price rises so will the top BB line..ditto with a fall...but in saying that when a rally does start the price tends to hug the top BB line.

Moosie observed that it was common to see the first 3 days of a big rally hugging the top BB line then decelerating away ...often happens but not always the case as big upward markets corrections can see the price hugging the top BB line for many days

Also looking at the weekly chart (BaaBaa's favourite) it shows less distracting and often useless noise the EMA14 variable line is at 2.29..above this line signals a more conservative lower risk medium/long term buy signal.


Disc:...Probably jumped the gun but I'm back in this morning at 2.165....For readers benefit..My timing has been lousy this year..

[workingdad]

There is headwinds..your 2.18 MA50 is a variable resistance line..My chart has a EMA50 of 2.236 so there is a lot of resistance sludge around... as I said previously AIR has a lot of work to do....however a big buyer or two would do the trick...NZ is a small market..
From a close inspection on my chart (3 month view) the bollinger bands yesterday widened a tad from the squeeze.

Bollinger bands tend to be price boundary lines but remember with volatility the BB lines act according..so you cant surmise yesterdays BB top line at 2.204 and say that today's price will hit and pause at 2.20 because if todays price rises so will the top BB line..ditto with a fall...but in saying that when a rally does start the price tends to hug the top BB line.

Moosie observed that it was common to see the first 3 days of a big rally hugging the top BB line then decelerating away ...often happens but not always the case as big upward markets corrections can see the price hugging the top BB line for many days

Also looking at the weekly chart (BaaBaa's favourite) it shows less distracting and often useless noise the EMA14 variable line is at 2.29..above this line signals a more conservative lower risk medium/long term buy signal.


Disc:...Probably jumped the gun but I'm back in this morning at 2.165....For readers benefit..My timing has been lousy this year..

Thanks Hoop, yeah I think the not seeing headwinds was poorly worded, perhaps seeing less now than in May is a better way to put it and some of those they are not to the degree of significance they were back then.

Widening Bollinger bands are good and hopefully that continues and either way seeing the SP in the upper range of the Bollinger bands is a showing of strength I am pleased to see. Been a lot of sellers happy to take the 2.16 range but my thoughts are a lot of those took advantage of Brexit prices and banking some gains.

I hope this time works out better for you Hoop. I actually think last time should have too but having made the same mistake myself a couple of times my judgement hasn't exactly been without fault either but it does seem to be better the last month or so.

[Beagle]

Disc:...Probably jumped the gun but I'm back in this morning at 2.165....For readers benefit..My timing has been lousy this year..

Welcome back Hoop. I topped up on Monday at the same price. It simply doesn't make sense that most of the rest of the world's airline stocks including the close competition QAN are starting a recovery and AIR are doing jack, especially in the light of their exit from VAH and the pending special and final dividend. Sigh...It would really make for a nice day if AIR could match the 4.5% increase in the XAL index for once, (not holding my breath).

[workingdad]

This doesn't make any difference to me as I finished coming back in to AIR when it was in the post brexit sell down but still keen to learn about charts and finding AIR is a great share price to learn from. So....

Bollinger bands widening and SP outside upper band which can be the start of an upswing (or can be a sign of overbought - how to differentiate between these two is something that is after a trend one way or another I guess.

Now broken through 50 day MA.

A higher high will be a close at greater than 2.25 which I am not saying is today but it seems it is edging up day by day or is the higher high not based on a close price but an intra-day price?

MA 200 line is flattening out and almost about to start upwards.

What else should one be looking for?

Thanks

[Hoop]

I've posted a detailed CAV chart detailing the initial buy in (8 months ago) and the following accumulation opportunities on the CAV thread
There is a steps up pattern Rally pause Rally Pause Rally..the pauses are throwbacks to the breakout price...How long this pattern continues is anyone's guess but be mindful that all patterns do end at some point in time..